Removing biases in forecasts of fishery status
- 330 Downloads
A recent highly cited paper from this journal develops a model predicting maximum sustainable yield (\(MSY\)) of a fishery using the historical maximum catch (\(MaxCatch\)). The model is parameterized with a small sample of fisheries from the United States, and is subsequently applied globally to estimate the benefits of fishery recovery. That empirical relationship has been adopted for many subsequent high-profile analyses. Unfortunately, the analysis suffers from two important oversights: (1) because the model is non-linear, it suffers from “retransformation bias” and therefore the results significantly understate \(MSY\) and (2) the analysis is parameterized from of a very limited data set and so generalizability of the fitted empirical relationship between \(MSY\) and \(MaxCatch\) to global fisheries is questionable. Here, we rectify both oversights and provide an updated estimate of the relationship between \(MSY\) and \(MaxCatch\).
KeywordsRetransformation bias Fisheries Maximum sustainable yield
JEL ClassificationQ22 D57 F01
We thank Dan Ovando for assisting with data collection and Jameal Samhouri for helpful suggestions.
- Halpern, B. S., Longo, C., Hardy, D., McLeod, K. L., Samhouri, J. F., Katona, S. K., Kleisner, K., Lester, S. E., O’Leary, J., Ranelletti, M., Rosenberg, A. A., Scarborough, C., Selig, E. R., Best, B. D., Brumbaugh, D. R., Chapin, F. S., Crowder, L. B., Daly, K. L., Doney, S. C., Elfes, C., Fogarty, M. J., Gaines, S. D., Jacobsen, K. I., Karrer, L. B., Leslie, H. M., Neeley, E., Pauly, D., Polasky, S., Ris, B., St Martin, K., Stone, G. S., Sumaila, U. R., Zeller, D. (2012). An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean. Nature, 488, 615–620.Google Scholar
- Leathwick, J., Moilanen, A., Francis, M., Elith, J., Taylor, P., Julian, K., Hastie, T., & Duffy, C. (2008). Novel methods for the design and evaluation of marine protected areas in offshore waters. Conservation Letters, 1, 91–102.Google Scholar
- Sumaila, U. R., Cheung, W., Dyck, A., Gueye, K., Huang, L., Lam, V., Pauly, D., Srinivasan, T., Swartz, W., Watson, R., Zeller, D. (2012). Benefits of rebuilding global marine fisheries outweigh costs. PLoS One, 7, e40542.Google Scholar