Abstract
Adolescent suicide continues to rise despite burgeoning research on interpersonal risk for suicide. This may reflect challenges in applying developmental psychopathology research into clinical settings. In response, the present study used a translational analytic plan to examine indices of social well-being most accurate and statistically fair for indexing adolescent suicide. Data from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication Adolescent Supplement were used. Adolescents aged 13–17 (N = 9,900) completed surveys on traumatic events, current relationships, and suicidal thoughts and attempts. Both frequentist (e.g., receiver operating characteristics) and Bayesian (e.g., Diagnostic Likelihood Ratios; DLRs) techniques provided insight into classification, calibration, and statistical fairness. Final algorithms were compared to a machine learning-informed algorithm. Overall, parental care and family cohesion best classified suicidal ideation, while these indices and school engagement best classified attempts. Multi-indicator algorithms suggested adolescents at high risk across these indices were approximately 3-times more likely to engage in ideation (DLR = 3.26) and 5-times more likely to engage in attempts (DLR = 4.53). Although equitable for attempts, models for ideation underperformed in non-White adolescents. Supplemental, machine learning-informed algorithms performed similarly, suggesting non-linear and interactive effects did not improve model performance. Future directions for interpersonal theories for suicide are discussed and clinical implications for suicide screening are demonstrated.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data and Code Availability
Data for the National Comorbidity Survey Adolescent Replication is publically available. Code for any analyses can be obtained from the first author.
Notes
We do note that the Male DLR for suicide attempts actually is not included in the female estimate. However, because the Female DLR falls within the Male estimate, we cannot conclude they are significantly different.
References
Ainsworth, M. D. S., & Bowlby, J. (1991). An ethological approach to personality development. American Psychologist, 46(4), 333–341. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.46.4.333
Ammerman, B. A., Serang, S., Jacobucci, R., Burke, T. A., Alloy, L. B., & McCloskey, M. S. (2018). Exploratory analysis of mediators of the relationship between childhood maltreatment and suicidal behavior. Journal of Adolescence, 69, 103–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescen.2018.09.004
Baiden, P., Mengo, C., & Small, E. (2021). History of physical teen dating violence and its association with suicidal behavior among adolescent high school students: Results from the 2015 Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 36(17–18), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1177/0886260519860087
Baumeister, R. F., & Leary, M. R. (1995). The need to belong: Desire for interpersonal attachments as a fundamental human motivation. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 497–529.
Berk, R., Heidari, H., Jabbari, S., Kearns, M., & Roth, A. (2021). Fairness in criminal justice risk assessments: The state of the art. Sociological Methods & Research, 50(1), 3–44. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124118782533
Bernard, D. L., Calhoun, C. D., Banks, D. E., Halliday, C. A., Hughes-Halbert, C., & Danielson, C. K. (2021). Making the “C-ACE” for a culturally-informed adverse childhood experiences framework to understand the pervasive mental health impact of racism on Black youth. Journal of Child & Adolescent Trauma, 14, 233–247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40653-020-00319
Bollen, K. A., & Diamantopoulos, A. (2017). In defense of causal-formative indicators: A minority report. Psychological Methods, 22(3), 581–596. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000056
Burke, T. A., Ammerman, B. A., & Jacobucci, R. (2019). The use of machine learning in the study of suicidal and non-suicidal self-injurious thoughts and behaviors: A systematic review. Journal of Affective Disorders, 245, 869–884. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2018.11.073
Carreras, J., Kikuti, Y. Y., Miyaoka, M., Hiraiwa, S., Tomita, S., Ikoma, H., Kondo, Y., Ito, A., Nakamura, N., & Hamoudi, R. (2021). A combination of multilayer perceptron, radial basis function artificial neural networks and machine learning image segmentation for the dimension reduction and the prognosis assessment of diffuse large B-Cell lymphoma. AI, 2(1), 106–134. https://doi.org/10.3390/ai2010008
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2018). Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. Retrieved date October 24, 2020, from www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leadingcausesofdeathbyaggroup
Chouldechova, A. (2017). Fair prediction with disparate impact: A study of bias in recidivism prediction instruments. Big Data, 5(2), 153–163. https://doi.org/10.1089/big.2016.0047
Chu, J., Floyd, R., Diep, H., Pardo, S., Goldblum, P., & Bongar, B. (2013). A tool for the culturally competent assessment of suicide: The Cultural Assessment of Risk for Suicide (CARS) measure. Psychological Assessment, 25(2), 424–434.
Chu, C., Buchman-Schmitt, J. M., Stanley, I. H., Hom, M. A., Tucker, R. P., Hagan, C. R., Rogers, M. L., Podlogar, M. C., Chiurliza, B., Ringer, F. B., Michaels, M. S., Patros, C. H. G., & Joiner, T. E., Jr. (2017). The interpersonal theory of suicide: A systematic review and meta-analysis of a decade of cross-national research. Psychological Bulletin, 143(12), 1313–1345. https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000123
Chu, J., Maruyama, B., Batchelder, H., Goldblum, P., Bongar, B., & Wickham, R. E. (2020). Cultural pathways for suicidal ideation and behaviors. Cultural Diversity and Ethnic Minority Psychology, 26(3), 367–377. https://doi.org/10.1037/cdp0000307
Cohen, J. R., & Choi, J. W. (2022). Is ACEs screening for adolescent mental health accurate and fair? Prevention Science, 23, 1216–1229. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-022-01391-3
Cohen, S., & Wills, T. A. (1985). Stress, social support, and the buffering hypothesis. Psychological Bulletin, 98(2), 310–357. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.98.2.310
Cohen, J. R., Shorey, R. C., Menon, S. V., & Temple, J. R. (2018). Predicting teen dating violence perpetration. Pediatrics, 141(4). https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2017-2790
Cohen, J. R., Thakur, H., Young, J. F., & Hankin, B. L. (2020). The development and validation of an algorithm to predict future depression onset in unselected youth. Psychological Medicine, 50(15), 2548–2556. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291719002691
Czyz, E. K., Berona, J., & King, C. A. (2015). A prospective examination of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior among psychiatric adolescent inpatients. Suicide and Life‐Threatening Behavior, 45, 243–259. https://doi.org/10.1111/sltb.12125
Deming, C. A., Harris, J. A., Castro-Ramirez, F., Glenn, J. J., Cha, C. B., Millner, A. J., & Nock, M. K. (2021). Inconsistencies in self-reports of suicidal ideation and attempts across assessment methods. Psychological Assessment, 33(3), 218–229. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000976
Eisinga, R., Grotenhuis, M. T., & Pelzer, B. (2013). The reliability of a two-item scale: Pearson, Cronbach, or Spearman-Brown? International Journal of Public Health, 58(4), 637–642. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-012-0416-3
Eun, J. D., Paksarian, D., He, J. P., & Merikangas, K. R. (2018). Parenting style and mental disorders in a nationally representative sample of US adolescents. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology, 53(1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00127-017-1435-4
Fazel, S., & O’Reilly, L. (2020). Machine learning for suicide research–can it improve risk factor identification? JAMA Psychiatry, 77(1), 13–14. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2019.2896
Fazel, S., & Runeson, B. (2020). Suicide. New England Journal of Medicine, 382(3), 266–274. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1902944
Felitti, V. J., Anda, R. F., Nordenberg, D., Williamson, D. F., Spitz, A. M., Edwards, V., & Marks, J. S. (1998). Relationship of childhood abuse and household dysfunction to many of the leading causes of death in adults: The adverse childhood experiences (ACE) study. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 14(4), 245–258.
Finkelhor, D. (2018). Screening for adverse childhood experiences (ACEs): Cautions and suggestions. Child Abuse & Neglect, 85, 174–179.
Haines, K., & Case, S. (2008). The rhetoric and reality of the ‘risk factor prevention paradigm’ approach to preventing and reducing youth offending. Youth Justice, 8(1), 5–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/1473225407087039
Handley, E. D., Adams, T. R., Manly, J. T., Cicchetti, D., & Toth, S. L. (2019). Mother–daughter interpersonal processes underlying the association between child maltreatment and adolescent suicide ideation. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 49(5), 1232–1240. https://doi.org/10.1111/sltb.12522
Hanson, R. K. (2017). Assessing the calibration of actuarial risk scales: A primer on the E/O index. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 44(1), 26–39. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854816683956
Hjelmeland, H., & Knizek, B. L. (2010). Why we need qualitative research in suicidology. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 40(1), 74–80.
Insel, T. R. (2017). Digital phenotyping: Technology for a new science of behavior. Journal Of The American Medical Association, 318(13), 1215–1216. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2017.11295
Jia, Z., Wen, X., Chen, F., Zhu, H., Li, C., Lin, Y., Xie, X., & Yuan, Z. (2020). Cumulative exposure to adverse childhood experience: Depressive symptoms, suicide intensions and suicide plans among senior high school students in Nanchang City of China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17, 4718–4730. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17134718
Joe, S., Baser, R. E., Breeden, G., Neighbors, H. W., & Jackson, J. S. (2006). Prevalence of and risk factors for lifetime suicide attempts among blacks in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association, 296(17), 2112–2123. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.296.17.2112
Joiner, T. E., Jeon, M. E., Lieberman, A., Janakiraman, R., Duffy, M. E., Gai, A. R., & Dougherty, S. P. (2021). On prediction, refutation, and explanatory reach: A consideration of the Interpersonal Theory of Suicidal Behavior. Preventive Medicine, 152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106453
Kessler, R. C., Avenevoli, S., Costello, E. J., Green, J. G., Gruber, M. J., Heeringa, S., Merikangas, K. R., Pennell, B. E., Sampson, N. A., & Zaslavsky, A. M. (2009). National comorbidity survey replication adolescent supplement (NCS-A): II. Overview and design. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 48(4), 380–385. https://doi.org/10.1097/CHI.0b013e3181999705
King, C. A., & Merchant, C. R. (2008). Social and interpersonal factors relating to adolescent suicidality: A review of the literature. Archives of Suicide Research, 12(3), 181–196. https://doi.org/10.1080/13811110802101203
Klonsky, E. D., & May, A. M. (2015). The three-step theory (3ST): A new theory of suicide rooted in the “ideation-to-action” framework. International Journal of Cognitive Therapy, 8(2), 114–129. https://doi.org/10.1521/ijct.2015.8.2.114
Klonsky, E. D., Saffer, B. Y., & Bryan, C. J. (2018). Ideation-to-action theories of suicide: A conceptual and empirical update. Current Opinion in Psychology, 22, 38–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2017.07.020
Lavigne, J. V., Feldman, M., & Meyers, K. M. (2016). Screening for mental health problems: Addressing the base rate fallacy for a sustainable screening program in integrated primary care. Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 41(10), 1081–1090. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpepsy/jsw04
Leach, M. M., & Leong, F. T. L. (2008). Challenges for research on suicide among ethnic minorities. In F. T. L. Leong, & M. M. Leach (Eds.), Suicide among racial and ethnic minority groups: Theory, research, and practice (pp. 297–318). Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group.
Lindhiem, O., Petersen, I. T., Mentch, L. K., & Youngstrom, E. A. (2020). The importance of calibration in clinical psychology. Assessment, 27(4), 840–854. https://doi.org/10.1177/1073191117752055
Linehan, M. M. (1993). Skills training manual for treating borderline personality disorder. Guilford Press.
Liu, J., Fang, Y., Gong, J., Cui, X., Meng, T., Xiao, B., He, Y., Shen, Y., & Luo, X. (2017). Associations between suicidal behavior and childhood abuse and neglect: A meta-analysis. Journal of Affective Disorders, 220, 147–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2017.03.060
May, A. M., & Klonsky, E. D. (2016). What distinguishes suicide attempters from suicide ideators? A meta-analysis of potential factors. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 23(1), 5–20. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0101735
McHugh, C. M., & Large, M. M. (2020). Can machine-learning methods really help predict suicide? Current Opinion in Psychiatry, 33(4), 369–374. https://doi.org/10.1097/YCO.00000000609
Merikangas, K. R., Avenevoli, S., Costello, E. J., Koretz, D., & Kessler, R. C. (2009). National comorbidity survey replication adolescent supplement (NCS-A): I. background and measures. Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 48(4), 367–379. https://doi.org/10.1097/CHI.0b013e31819996f1
Miller, A. B., Esposito-Smythers, C., Weismoore, J. T., & Renshaw, K. D. (2013). The relation between child maltreatment and adolescent suicidal behavior: A systematic review and critical examination of the literature. Clinical Child and Family Psychology Review, 16, 146–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10567-013-0131-5
Miller, A. B., Esposito-Smythers, C., & Leichtweis, R. N. (2015). Role of social support in adolescent suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. Journal of Adolescent Health, 56(3), 286–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2014.10.265
Miller, A. B., Esposito-Smythers, C., & Leichtweis, R. N. (2016). A short‐term, prospective test of the interpersonal–psychological theory of suicidal ideation in an adolescent clinical sample. Suicide and Life‐Threatening Behavior, 46(3), 337–351. https://doi.org/10.1111/sltb.12196
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) (2020). CDC WONDER. Underlying cause of death, 1999–2018. Retrieved date October 24, 2020, from https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
Pendergast, L. L., Youngstrom, E. A., Ruan-Iu, L., & Beysolow, D. (2018). The nomogram: A decision-making tool for practitioners using multitiered systems of support. School Psychology Review, 47(4), 345–359. https://doi.org/10.17105/SPR-2017-0097.V47-4
Price, R. K., Spitznagel, E. L., Downey, T. J., Meyer, D. J., Risk, N. K., & El-Ghazzawy, O. G. (2000). Applying artificial neural network models to clinical decision making. Psychological Assessment, 12(1), 40–51.
Prinstein, M. J., Boergers, J., Spirito, A., Little, T. D., & Grapentine, W. L. (2000). Peer functioning, family dysfunction, and psychological symptoms in a risk factor model for adolescent inpatients’ suicidal ideation severity. Journal of Clinical Child Psychology, 29(3), 392–405. https://doi.org/10.1207/S15374424JCCP2903_10
Rapp, A. M., Lau, A., & Chavira, D. A. (2017). Differential associations between social anxiety disorder, family cohesion, and suicidality across racial/ethnic groups: Findings from the National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent (NCS-A). Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 48, 13–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2016.09.009
Rawat, N. C. (2006). Psychological assessment. MD Publications.
Roeder, K. M., & Cole, D. A. (2018). Prospective relation between peer victimization and suicidal ideation: Potential cognitive mediators. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 42(6), 769–781. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10608-018-9939-0
Rosario-Williams, B., Rowe-Harriott, S., Ray, M., Jeglic, E., & Miranda, R. (2020). Factors precipitating suicide attempts vary across race. Journal of American College Health, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1080/07448481.2020.1757680
Rudolph, K. D., Flynn, M., & Abaied, J. L. (2008). A developmental perspective on interpersonal theories of youth depression. In J. R. Z. Abela, & B. L. Hankin (Eds.), Handbook of depression in children and adolescents (pp. 79–102). The Guilford Press.
Rumelhart, D., & McClelland, J. L. (1986). Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition. MIT Press.
Salganik, M. J., Lundberg, I., Kindel, A. T., Ahearn, C. E., Al-Ghoneim, K., Almaatouq, A., Altschul, D. M., Brand, J. E., Carnegie, N. B., Compton, R. J., Datta, D., Davidson, T., Filippova, A., Gilroy, C., Goode, B. J., Jahani, E., Kashyap, R., Kirchner, A., McKay, S., & McLanahan, S. (2020). Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(15), 8398–8403. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1915006117
Schleider, J. L., Dobias, M. L., Sung, J. Y., & Mullarkey, M. C. (2020). Future directions in single-session youth mental health interventions. Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology, 49((2)), 264–278. https://doi.org/10.1080/15374416.2019.1683852
Schuster, T. L., Kessler, R. C., & Aseltine, R. H. (1990). Supportive interactions, negative interactions, and depressed mood. American Journal of Community Psychology, 18(3), 423–438.
Shatte, A. B., Hutchinson, D. M., & Teague, S. J. (2019). Machine learning in mental health: A scoping review of methods and applications. Psychological Medicine, 49(9), 1426–1448. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0033291719000151
Shorey, R. C., Allan, N. P., Cohen, J. R., Fite, P. J., Stuart, G. L., & Temple, J. R. (2019). Testing the factor structure and measurement invariance of the conflict in adolescent dating relationship inventory. Psychological Assessment, 31(3), 410–416. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000678
Steyerberg, E. W. (2009). In M. Gail, K. Krickeberg, J. Samet, A. Tsiatis, & W. Wong (Eds.), Clinical prediction models: A practical approach to development, validation, and updating. Springer.
Straus, S. E., Glasziou, P., Richardson, W. S., & Haynes, R. B. (2018). Evidence-based medicine: How to practice and teach EBM. Elsevier Health Sciences.
Van Meter, A. R., Paksarian, D., & Merikangas, K. R. (2019). Social functioning and suicide risk in a community sample of adolescents. Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology, 48(2), 273–287. https://doi.org/10.1080/15374416.2018.1528549
Van Orden, K. A., Witte, T. K., Cukrowicz, K. C., Braithwaite, S. R., Selby, E. A., & Joiner, T. E., Jr. (2010). The interpersonal theory of suicide. Psychological Review, 117(2), 575–600. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018697
Vermeiren, R., Ruchkin, V., Leckman, P. E., Deboutte, D., & Schwab-Stone, M. (2002). Exposure to violence and suicide risks in adolescence: A community study. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 30(5), 529–537.
Vyas, D. A., Eisenstein, L. G., & Jones, D. S. (2020). Hidden in plain sight—reconsidering the use of race correction in clinical algorithms. New England Journal of Medicine, 383(9), 874–882. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ogx.0000725672.30764.f7
Whitlock, J., Wyman, P. A., & Moore, S. R. (2014). Connectedness and suicide prevention in adolescents: Pathways and implications. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior, 44(3), 246–272. https://doi.org/10.1111/sltb.12071
Youngstrom, E. A. (2014). A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: We are ready to ROC. Journal of Pediatric Psychology, 39(2), 204–221. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpepsy/jst062
Youngstrom, E. A., Van Meter, A., Frazier, T. W., Hunsley, J., Prinstein, M. J., Ong, M. L., & Youngstrom, J. K. (2017). Evidence-based assessment as an integrative model for applying psychological science to guide the voyage of treatment. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 24(4), 331–363. https://doi.org/10.1111/cpsp.12207
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Both authors contributed to the conceptualization, writing, and analysis of this manuscript. JRC performed all analyses.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Funding
Data collection was supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (U01-MH60220), National Institutes of Health. National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01-DA12058-05), the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (Grant 044780), and John W. Alden Trust. JRC’s time on this manuscript was supported by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R21 HD103950 01A1).
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Ethics Approval
This study was performed in line with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. Approval for data collection was given by the human subjects committees of both Harvard Medical School and the University of Michigan.
Informed Consent
Informed consent was obtained by all legal guardians and adolescents provided assent prior to participating.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Cohen, J.R., Stutts, M. Interpersonal Well-Being and Suicidal Outcomes in a Nationally Representative Study of Adolescents: A Translational Study. Res Child Adolesc Psychopathol 51, 1327–1341 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10802-023-01068-7
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10802-023-01068-7