The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective
- 541 Downloads
We assess the fairness and ambition level of the EU’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 % relative to 1990. For this, we calculate which reduction targets for other major emitting economies are comparable to the EU target, given widely diverging effort-sharing approaches. We introduce a novel approach in which the EU target is taken as starting point for allocating emission reductions to other regions. Under this approach, the global emission level is an outcome of the analysis, contrary to standard effort-sharing approaches in which the global climate goal is specified. We find that the INDC of the EU, if other regions take on comparable targets based on a differentiated convergence per-capita approach, could be sufficient for a global 2 °C pathway. However, if emissions are allocated according to a historical responsibility approach, the global emission level in 2030 is much higher than the level of 2 °C pathways. Furthermore, we conclude that India, Mexico, and Brazil have more ambitious INDCs than the EU according to both a differentiated convergence per-capita approach and a historical responsibility approach.
KeywordsClimate change INDCs Burden sharing Effort sharing Mitigation
- Admiraal, A., den Elzen, M., Forsell, N., Turkovska, O., Roelfsema, M., & van Soest, H. (2015). Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris climate agreement—What are the projected global and national emission levels for 2025–2030?. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.Google Scholar
- Amann, M., Rafaj, P., & Höhne, N. (2009). GHG mitigation potentials in Annex I countries. Comparison of Model Estimates for 2020. Laxenburg, Austria. IR-09-034, IIASA.Google Scholar
- Angelsen, A., Gierløff, C. W., Beltrán, A. M., & den Elzen, M. (2014). REDD credits in a global carbon market: Options and impacts. Nordic Council of Ministers.Google Scholar
- BASIC Experts. (2011). Equitable access to sustainable development: Contribution to the body of scientific knowledge. Beijing, Brasilia, Cape Town and Mumbai: BASIC Expert Group.Google Scholar
- Böttcher, H., Gusti, M., Mosnier, A., & Havlik, P. (2011). Global forestry emissions projections and abatement costs: IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, final report submitted to The Secretary of State of Energy and Climate Change, London (August 2011). http://www.iiasa.ac.at/publication/more_XO-11-051.php.
- Clarke, L., Jiang, K., Akimoto, K., Babiker, M., Blanford, G., Fisher-Vanden, K., et al. (2014). Assessing transformation pathways. In O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, et al. (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- den Elzen, M., Hof, A., van den Berg, M., & Roelfsema, M. (2014). Climate policy. In E. Stehfest, D. van Vuuren, T. Kram, & L. Bouwman (Eds.), Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications (pp. 303–311). The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.Google Scholar
- den Elzen, M. G. J., Schaeffer, M., & Lucas, P. (2005). Differentiating future commitments on the basis of countries’ relative historical responsibility for climate change: Uncertainties in the ‘Brazilian Proposal’ in the context of a policy implementation. Climatic Change, 71(3), 277–301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Enerdata. (2010). POLES model marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) based on the World Energy Outlook 2009. http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/subscriptions/marginal-abatement-cost-curves-MACCs.php.
- EPA. (2013). Global mitigation of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases: 2010–2030. EPA-430-R-13-011. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/EPAactivities/MAC_Report_2013.pdf United States Environmental Protection Agency.
- European Commission. (2014). Fact Sheet Climate Change 2014, http://ec.europa.eu/clima/publications/docs/factsheet_climate_change_2014_en.pdf.
- Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D. W., et al. (2007). Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, et al. (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Friman, M., & Strandberg, G. (2014). Historical responsibility for climate change: Science and the science-policy interface. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 5(3), 297–316.Google Scholar
- Graus, W., Harmelink, M., & Hendriks, C. (2004). Marginal GHG-abatement curves for agriculture. Utrecht: Ecofys.Google Scholar
- Gupta, S., Tirpak, D. A., Burger, N., Gupta, J., Höhne, N., Boncheva, A. I., et al. (2007). Policies, instruments and co-operative arrangements. In B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, & L. A. Meyer (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- IEA. (2009). World energy outlook 2009. Paris: International Energy Agency.Google Scholar
- IEA. (2012). Energy statistics and balances. Paris: International Energy Agency.Google Scholar
- JRC/PBL. (2012). EDGAR version 4.2 FT2010. Joint Research Centre of the European Commission/PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/index.php.
- Kindermann, G., Obersteiner, M., Sohngen, B., Sathaye, J., Andrasko, K., Rametsteiner, E., et al. (2008). Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(30), 10302–10307.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Meyer, A. (2000). Contraction and convergence: The global solution to climate change (Vol. 5). Bristol: Schumacher Briefings, Green Books.Google Scholar
- Riahi, K., Kriegler, E., Johnson, N., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Eom, J., et al. (2015). Locked into Copenhagen pledges—Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90(PA), 8–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Schwarz, W., Gschrey, B., Leisewitz, A., Herold, A., & Gores, S. (2011). Preparatory study for a review of Regulation (EC) No 842/2006 on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases. Final report prepared for the European Commission in the context of service contract no 070307/2009/548866/SER/C4. http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/f-gas/docs/2011_study_en.pdf.
- Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D., Kram, T., Bouwman, L., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., et al. (2014). Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.Google Scholar
- UNEP. (2014). The emissions gap report 2014. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).Google Scholar
- UNEP. (2015). The emissions gap report 2015. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).Google Scholar
- UNFCCC. (1995). Climate Change 1995, the science of Climate Change: Summary for policymakers and technical summary of the working group I report.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC. (1997). Paper no. 1: Brazil; proposed elements of a protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change. UNFCCC/AGBM/1997/MISC.1/Add.3 GE.97. Bonn.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC. (2010). Report of the conference of the parties on its sixteenth session, held in Cancun from 29 November to 10 December 2010. Addendum. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its sixteenth session. FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC. (2012). Quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets by developed country Parties to the Convention: Assumptions, conditions, commonalities and differences in approaches and comparison of the level of emission reduction efforts. UNFCCC document FCCC/TP/2012/2. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.Google Scholar
- UNFCCC. (2015). Adoption of the Paris agreement: Proposal by the president. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.Google Scholar
- United Nations. (1992). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. New York, NY. http://www.unfccc.int.