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Medical employment growth, unemployment, and the opportunity cost of health care

Abstract

This policy note examines the relationship between the growth in the share of the workforce in medical care and the shares of workers who are unemployed, working in services or government employment, or working elsewhere in the economy. These changes provide measures of the opportunity cost of higher medical care spending, the majority of which is on labor. Using state data over the period 1990–2010, we find that, in years of high economy-wide unemployment, growth in medical employment in a state reduces the unemployment rate significantly; it does not appear to displace employment in other services or government employment. In periods of low economy wide-unemployment, the growth in the medical employment share does not reduce unemployment. We argue that the opportunity cost of higher medical care employment may sometimes not be so high in terms of real labor resources, nor in terms of employment for needed government services.

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Notes

  1. The CEA presumably means that cross-state comparisons are superior to cross-country comparisons because of smaller differences in culture and institutions in the former.

  2. We anticipate that it will have a positive sign in high unemployment rate periods (as it adds workers searching for jobs). We have no expectations about its effect in low unemployment rate periods.

  3. We used the BLS NAICS employment categories to get a formula of Medical Employment \(=\) Health Care and Social Assistance Employment – Social Assistance Employment. 11 states did not have a value for Social Assistance Employment alone. The calculation of medical employment in the 11 states that presented combined data on medical and social assistance employment by multiplying the combined total by the average proportion of medical care in medical care and social assistance in the other 37 states. The time trends in the combined data and the medical employment data were very similar.

  4. See Getzen (2000).

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Correspondence to Mark Pauly.

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Pauly, M., Nimgaonkar, V. Medical employment growth, unemployment, and the opportunity cost of health care. Int J Health Econ Manag. 16, 387–396 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-016-9197-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-016-9197-1

Keywords

  • Health care
  • Costs of health care
  • Analysis of labor markets
  • Medical economics
  • Medical employment

JEL Classification

  • I1