Assessment of climate change impacts on river hydrology and habitat suitability of Oxynoemacheilus bergianus. Case study: Kordan River, Iran
- 317 Downloads
Iran is located in a geographical location that is not immune from climate change effects. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the influence of climate change on water resources since this part of the ecosystem is the first component that will be affected by climate change. The main purpose of this study is to assess climate change impacts on environmental flows by using hydrological indicators in Kordan River, Iran. In this regard, at first, the future climate change in the region was projected by using HadCM3 general circulation model in three 30-year periods, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099, considering the A2 and B1 emission scenarios. Afterwards, Kordan River streamflow was simulated by using the SWAT model for the baseline period (1985–2010) and the future and hydrological indicators, such as magnitude, duration, timing, and frequency of extreme flows, were analyzed. Results showed a reduction in discharge. Under the A2 scenario, discharge decreased from 3.31 to 2.66 m3/s, while under the B1 scenario, this reduction was up to 2.86 m3/s for 100 years into the future. In addition to reduction of discharge, the occurrence time of maximum and minimum flows is projected to change as well. This phenomenon will change the habitat suitability and introduce some risks for aquatic life. Finally, in order to analyze Kordan River habitat suitability, we chose Oxynoemacheilus bergianus, which can be a suitable index for the ecosystem. In this regard, Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) was used, which is obtained based on river characteristics such as water depth, velocity, and water temperature. According to the results, the percentage of time that HSI is at a rate between 0.4 and 0.6 is expected to decrease from 100–70% to 80–60% under both scenarios by 2071–2099.
KeywordsClimate change SWAT Model Indicators of hydrological alterations HSI Kordan River
- Brown, I., B. Ridder, P., Alumbaugh, C., Barnett, A., Brooks, L., Duffy, & R., Hough. 2012. Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Sector. Defra Project Code GA0204. Defra, London, UK.Google Scholar
- IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios. A special report of IPCC Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ISBN: 92-9169, 113–115.Google Scholar
- IPCC, 2007. The scientific Basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, New York.Google Scholar
- Katouli, J. M. & R. Mossadegh, 2011. A study on the rural tourism status and its role on handicraft business development. Case study: southern Estarabad, Gorgan. Urban-Regional Studies and Research 2(7): 137–154.Google Scholar
- Kopytkovskiy, M., M. Geza & J. E. McCray, 2015. Climate-change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 3: 473–493.Google Scholar
- Li, R., Q. Chen, D. Chen, & R. Han. 2014. Response of river hydrological and habitat features to water supplement by upstream dam in Lijiang River, China. In 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics. HIC, New York.Google Scholar
- LLC, RP., & T., Rybicki. 2009. Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, Version 7.1, User’s Manual.Google Scholar
- Lubini, A., & J., Adamowski. 2013. Assessing the potential impacts of four climate change scenarios on the discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model.Google Scholar
- Neitsch, S. L., J. G., Arnold, J. R., Kiniry, & J. R., Williams. 2011. Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute.Google Scholar
- Pradhanang, S. M., R. Mukundan, E. M. Schneiderman, M. S. Zion, A. Anandhi, D. C. Pierson & T. S. Steenhuis, 2013. Streamflow responses to climate change: Analysis of hydrologic indicators in a New York City water supply watershed. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 49(6): 1308–1326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Rezaee Zaman, M., 2013. Impact Assessment of climate change on hydroclimatologic variables on Siminerood basin. Water and Soil 27(6): 1247–1259. (In Persian).Google Scholar
- Santhi, C., J. G., Arnold, J. R., Williams, W. A. Dugas, R., Srinivasan, & L. M., Hauck. 2001. Validation of the swat model on a Large River Basin with point and nonpoint sources1.Google Scholar
- Schneider, S. H. 2007. The unique risks to California from human-induced climate change. http://www.climatechange.net.
- Tabatabayi, S.N. 2012. A review on Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) in fish, M.Sc. seminar, Fisheries group, Natural faculty, Tehran university, 37 p. (In Persian).Google Scholar
- van Rheenen, T., C. Elbel, S. Schwarze, N. Nuryartono, M. Zeller & B. Sanim, 2004. Encroachments on primary forests: are they really driven by despair? In Gerold, G., M. Fremerey & E. Guhardja (eds.), Land Use, Nature Conservation and the Stability of Rainforest Margins in Southeast Asia. Springer, Berlin: 199–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wilby, R. L., S. P. Charles, E. Zorita, B. Timbal, P. Whetton, L. O. Mearns, 2004. Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods. IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA). http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/guidelines/StatDown_Guide.pdf.
- Yao, W., P. Rutschmann, & S. Bamal, 2014. Modeling of river velocity, temperature, bed deformation and its effects on rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Habitat in Lees Ferry, Colorado River. Environmental Research 8(4): 887–896.Google Scholar
- Yongxuan, G., M. V. Richard, N. K. Charles, N. LeRoy, P., D. O. Julian, 2009. Development of representative indicators of hydrologic alteration. Journal of Hydrology 374: 36–147.Google Scholar