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Methodologies for measuring and modelling change in coastal saline lagoons under historic and accelerated sea-level rise, Suffolk coast, eastern England

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Abstract

Thorough assessment of vulnerable coastal habitats, impacted by sea-level rise and anthropogenic pressures, requires both the accurate establishment of the evidence base for current status and scientifically-informed forward planning of expected future status. Coastal saline lagoons are transitional, ephemeral habitats of considerable conservation interest; under European legislation their status requires on-going maintenance of ‘favourable status’. Over decadal timescales, the seaward barriers that enclose saline lagoons migrate progressively landwards. Geo-referenced and digitised historic maps and aerial photographs are used to create a detailed trajectory of barrier migration and loss of lagoon area for three saline ‘broads’ on the rapidly retreating coastline of Suffolk, eastern England. The SCAPE shoreline response model is then employed to extend this trajectory, under a range of sea-level rise scenarios, to 2050 and 2095 and to predict saline lagoon ‘time to extinction’. Loss rates are likely to accelerate considerably after 2015 and a fundamental revision of UK saline lagoon creation targets is urgently required. The approach is generic and could be used to assess the evolutionary trajectories for other vulnerable coastal habitats, under a range of near-future environmental change scenarios.

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Acknowledgments

David Welsh, Shoreline Management Group, UK Environment Agency, provided exceptionally efficient supply of aerial photography. LiDAR imagery was supplied by the Geomatics Group, UK Environment Agency. We also thank the staff of the University of Cambridge Map Room, University Library, Cambridge for assistance and advice. Access to field sites was generously allowed by Edward Vere Nicoll of the Benacre Estate. Dr Steve Boreham, Chris Rolfe & Sean Taylor provided valuable assistance with field surveys. This research was first initiated through a Caird-Crown Estate Fellowship, awarded by The UK Crown Estate in association with The UK National Maritime Museum, to Dr S. Brooks in 2009.

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  1. Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK

    Thomas Spencer

  2. Department of Geography, Environment and Development Studies, Birkbeck, University of London, Malet Street, London, WC1E 7HX, UK

    Susan M. Brooks

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Correspondence to Thomas Spencer.

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Spencer, T., Brooks, S.M. Methodologies for measuring and modelling change in coastal saline lagoons under historic and accelerated sea-level rise, Suffolk coast, eastern England. Hydrobiologia 693, 99–115 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1089-x

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