Abstract
Economic analyses of risk typically employ mean and variance calculations such as the coefficient of variation (CV) and z-score model. In this study we examine to what degree these simple measures approximate people’s perceptions of the risk associated with different farming, foraging, and fishing subsistence activities in southwestern Madagascar. CV calculated using production data for 15 activities (ranked) explains about 18 % of participants’ risk ratings from 24 focus groups. CV corresponds better to the ratings of men (37 %) and farmers (40 %), but does not predict the ratings by women, foragers, or Vezo fishermen, suggesting that economic measures of risk have a male and agrarian bias. Narrative responses suggest that risk is qualitatively different for foragers and fishermen, who face hazard (danger) and the cosmological dread of dying far from home. We conclude by predicting the ethnographic and ecological contexts when researchers should go beyond mean and variance when estimating risk.
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Acknowledgments
This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (BCS 0650412), conducted in collaboration with the Université de Toliara (thanks, President Théodoret) and CeDRATOM (thanks, Director Bartholémy Manjakahery), and written while the first author was a fellow at the Wissenschaftskolleg zu Berlin (thanks, Reinhart Meyer-Kalkus and Luca Giuliani for allowing Tsiazonera and Jaovola to visit Berlin). Thanks to Rolland Lahiniriko, Razafindravelo Pirrette Miza, Tsitindry Théodore Ramanonvotsoa, Louinaise Rasoanomenjanahary, Gervais Tantely, Jean Roger Tsikengo, Mr. Tsimitamby, and Mr. Zafimandimby for assistance in the field. Monique Borgerhoff Mulder, Alex Courtiol, Zach Fohl, Craig Hadley, Jessica Ham, Amber Huff, Claudia Kasper, Joe Lanning, Elaina Lill, Flora Lu, Virpi Lummaa, Victoria Ramenzoni, Laura Tilghman, and Ludo Razafrindramazana contributed comments and other assistance on drafts of this manuscript. Special thanks to Sophie Benbow and Blue Ventures Conservation, U.K., for providing CPUE data for sea turtles.
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Tucker, B., Tombo, J., Tsiazonera et al. Beyond Mean and Variance: Economic Risk Versus Perceived Risk of Farming, Foraging, and Fishing Activities in Southwestern Madagascar. Hum Ecol 41, 393–407 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9563-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9563-2