Graduate cohorts
Table 2 shows the demographic profile of the care-experienced graduate sample in comparison with other graduates. Several key differences are readily apparent. Care-experienced graduates had a higher preponderance to be disabled (24.7%, compared with 14.2%) and to be a non-UK national (16.3%, compared with 8.2%). They were older, on average, being over twice as likely to be aged 25 or over on entry (22.7%, compared with 9.2%). They were also disproportionately drawn from the Black, Other Asian and Mixed Heritage ethnic groups.
Table 2 Demographic profile, by care status Table 3 presents a similar analysis for education variables. Care-experienced graduates entered HE with weaker entry qualifications overall, also notably making more extensive use of alternative qualifications (e.g. Level 3 without tariff points) or prior experience. They were substantially less likely to attend Russell Group and other pre-1992 universities, which was partly—but not entirely—due to having lower entry qualifications (see Stevenson et al. 2020 for details on this point). There were modest differences in subjects studied between care-experienced and other graduates, with the former being somewhat over-represented in social sciences and creative arts, but underrepresented in natural sciences, technology-based subjects and the humanities, and among those taking a sandwich year. Importantly, care-experienced graduates were somewhat less likely to have received first or upper-second class degrees, although a clear majority still did so (70.1%, compared with 79.8%); this could almost entirely be attributed to differences in entry qualifications and demographic profile.
Table 3 Educational profile, by care status This first stage of analysis thus confirmed care-experienced graduates as having a distinct profile compared with the general population. They are more likely to be older, disabled, from a minority ethnic community and a non-UK national—all potential markers for educational disadvantage. In addition, they tended to have entered HE with lower entry qualifications, attended a lower status HEI and been awarded a lower classification of degree, although the former trends largely explained the latter. These patterns are consistent with previous studies of data on care-experienced students (e.g. Harrison 2017, 2020) and more broadly with the care population (DfE 2019a).
Graduate outcomes
In the DLHE survey, graduates are asked to provide information about their current activities 6 months after graduation. These are coded into consistent categories before being made available to researchers (HESA 2019). Due to small numbers in some categories, the nine ‘main activity’ categories listed in Table 1 have been collapsed into five: working, studying, mixing work and study, unemployed and other. The activities for care-experienced and other graduates are illustrated in Fig. 1.
The overall patterns of activity are similar between the groups. Graduates who were not care-experienced were somewhat more likely to be in work alone (66.6%, compared with 60.9%), while care-experienced graduates were disproportionately found in the other four categories. Including those mixing activities, 27.9% of care-experienced graduates had moved on to further study; the equivalent figure for other graduates was 24.6%. Care-experienced graduates were also slightly more likely to be unemployed (5.5%, compared with 4.4%) or engaged in ‘other’ activities.
Turning to look in more depth at those who are working, Fig. 2 shows the breakdown into the Standard Occupational Classification used in the UK to hierarchically categorise work by status; the standard nine-point system has been collapsed due to small numbers in two categories. Once again, the profile between care-experienced and other graduates is similar. A commonly used distinction between ‘professional’ (the first three classes) and ‘non-professional’ (the remainder) work shows 63.7% of care-experienced graduates in professional roles, compared with 68.5% of other graduates; restricting to those in full-time work only, the figures are 70.7% and 77.0% respectively. In other words, care-experienced graduates were somewhat less likely than their peers to be in professional roles 6 months after graduation, although the majority were. Care-experienced graduates were disproportionately likely to be working in public administration, social work and residential care, but less likely to be in the financial, legal or accounting industries; the overall salary profiles between care-experienced and other graduates were almost identical (see Stevenson et al. 2020 for details).
Figure 3 shows the level of further study for those studying 6 months after graduation. Care-experienced graduates were substantially more likely to be undertaking a taught master’s degree than other graduates (72.3%, compared with 60.8%), but less likely to be pursuing a research degreeFootnote 7, postgraduate certificate/diploma or professional qualification.
Finally, we introduce a compound measure for a ‘positive graduate outcome’ derived from the complex data outlined above. We take a positive graduate outcome to be either (a) working in a professional role and/or (b) studying on a postgraduate or professional course. In constructing this measure, we exclude graduates who report ‘other’ activities as they are effectively absent from the labour market for heterogeneous reasons (e.g. travelling). We appreciate that this is a considerable simplification. For example, some people in professional roles may not be in their preferred career, with others undertaking informal study for well-founded reasons. Also, the timescale of 6 months is one in which many graduates are ‘finding their feet’ and taking time to review their options. Nevertheless, for the purposes of comparing overall immediate outcomes for care-experienced and other graduates, we argue that the measure has utility. Using this compound measure, we find that 70.1% of care-experienced graduates had a positive graduate outcome, compared with 72.3% of other graduates; this difference was not statistically significant. By definition, the remainder were unemployed, in non-professional work or studying an additional undergraduate or informal course.
To summarise, care-experienced graduates had broadly similar outcomes to other graduates—notably, this is despite having attended lower status HEIs and achieving lower degree results, on average. They were somewhat less likely to be working and to be in professional work, but conversely more likely to be studying. Their unemployment rate was slightly higher, although it was generally low for both cohorts.
Predictors for graduate outcomes
The third stage of analysis continues to use the positive graduate outcome measure defined in the previous section. It becomes the dichotomous dependent variable in a series of three binary logistic regression models in Table 4. Model 1 includes only the care status marker. Model 2 adds the educational variables defined in Table 1, and Model 3 further adds the demographic variables.
Table 4 Binary logistic regression models for positive graduate outcomes Model 1 shows care-experienced graduates as being somewhat less likely than otherwise similar graduates to have a positive graduate outcome after 6 months, with an odds ratio of less than one, but this is not statistically significant (p = .135). This is consistent with the analysis in the previous section.
However, and interestingly, once the educational variables are entered in Model 2, the odds ratio for care-experienced graduates rises above 1. This indicates that once degree subject, HEI, degree classification and sandwich years are taken into account, care-experienced graduates are actually slightly more likely than other graduates to report a positive outcome, although this is again not statistically significant (p = .330). Model 3, which additionally controls for sex, ethnicity, nationality, disability status and age, provides a very similar picture, with care-experienced graduates having slightly better outcomes, on average, but at a level that is not statistically significant (p = .431).
We can conclude from this analysis that being care-experienced is not in itself a predictor for less positive graduate outcomes; if anything, Models 2 and 3 suggest that the opposite is true, albeit marginally. Rather, care-experienced graduates are notably over-represented in various educational and demographic groups that are markedly less likely to have a positive graduate outcome—i.e. achieving a lower degree classification, attending a lower status HEI, being from a minority ethnic community, being a non-UK national and being disabled. In other words, care-experienced graduates do as well—on average and within the timeframe dictated by the dataset—as other students with a similar profile.
Finally, we note that the R2 statistics, indicating the proportion of the variance explained by the models and therefore their ability to predict an individual’s outcomes based on the variables listed, are relatively low. This can have two meanings. Firstly, there may be important unobserved variables missing from the model which have greater explanatory power than those included. With respect to graduate outcomes, this might include personal characteristics for which no data are available, such as motivation, job-searching skills or desire to wait for the right job/study opportunity. Secondly, there may be a high degree of underlying randomness concerning which graduates are able to secure positive outcomes in the timeframe, based on the vagaries of the labour market. It is impossible to resolve these possibilities with the data available. However, the key point is that there is no evidence herein to conclude that care-experienced graduates are systematically disadvantaged beyond their over-representation in groups which are known to be disadvantaged.