Negotiation Principles
At the same time as Weizenbaum (1966) developed the Eliza program, some of the first negotiation theories were developed. In our discussion of negotiation principles, we introduce those principles that are specifically used in the development of systems discussed in this article. There are many other principles which we do not mention, such as Zone of Possible Agreement, reactive devaluation and optimistic overconfidence.
Reality testing is a method of suggesting to a party that she may need to adapt her perceptions once she receives further information about her claim. A party may overestimate the likelihood of success of the merits of the claim and have an unrealistic assessment of her alternatives to settlement. De Vries et al (2005) indicates that in the final stage of the negotiation process, reality testing provides an excellent method of ensuring that parties are fully aware of the benefits of the agreement they are about to reach. Useful references on negotiation principles are Zartman (2007) and Lewicki et al (2020). Lodder and Zeleznikow (2010) has an extensive survey of intelligent negotiation support systems.
Whilst examining labor conflicts, Walton and McKersie (1965) introduced the distinction between distributive and integrative bargaining. In distributive approaches, the problems are viewed as zero sum and resources are imagined as fixed: the goal is to divide a fixed pie. In integrative approaches the goal is to expand the pie prior to dividing a larger pie. Engaging in integrative negotiation leads to a win–win or all gain approach.
Mnookin and Kornhauser (1979) developed the notion of Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law in the domain of US divorce law. They contended that the legal rights of each party could be understood as bargaining chips that can influence settlement outcomes. Mnookin and Kornhauser argued that parties in the United States negotiate the terms of a divorce in the shadow of US matrimonial law rather than pursue their respective rights in a courtroom. Focusing upon plea bargaining in the Shadow of the Law, Bibas (2004) argues that ‘the conventional wisdom is that litigants bargain towards settlement in the shadow of expected trial outcomes. In this model, rational parties forecast the expected trial outcome and strike bargains that leave both sides better off by splitting the saved costs of trial. … This shadow of trial model now dominates the literature on civil settlements.’
Expanding upon the concept of interest-based negotiation, Fisher and Ury (1981) developed the notion of principled negotiation. This theory promotes deciding issues on their merits rather than engaging in a haggling process. One of the most important features of principled negotiation is the need to know your BATNA (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement). This is because the reason you negotiate with someone is to produce better results than would otherwise occur. If you are unaware of what results you could obtain were the negotiations to be unsuccessful, you run the risk of entering into an agreement that you would be better off rejecting; or rejecting an agreement you would be better off accepting.
Template Based Negotiation Support Systems
Many of the first Support Systems (NSS)s were template based. Whilst they did not explicitly use artificial intelligence, the systems did at that time provide important intelligent advice and support. Their primary focus was about how close disputants were to a negotiated settlement. By informing users of the issues in dispute and a measure of the level of the disagreement, they provided important negotiation decision support.
Eidelman (1993) examined two template-based software systems that assisted lawyers during negotiations: Negotiator Pro and The Art of Negotiating. DEUS (Zeleznikow et al 1995) displayed the level of disagreement, with respect to each item, between Australian Family Law disputants. Each of these three systems provides useful negotiation decision support. But none of them relied upon artificial intelligence techniques being used at that time – rule-based reasoning, case-based reasoning and early forms of machine learning.
Initially, INSPIRE (Kersten 1997) was a template based NSS. It used utility functions to graph offers made by the disputing parties. Kersten claimed it was the first system to enable disputants to negotiate through the Internet, by making extensive use of email and web browser facilities. The system displayed both previous and present offers and used utility functions to evaluate proposals determined to be Pareto-optimal. Users could check the closeness of a package to their initial preferences by the use of a graphical utility function.
As of November 2020, INSPIRE was a Web-based NSS. The current version allows for the specification of preferences, assessment of offers, management of communication, graphical display of the negotiation's progress, post-agreement analysis, and other functions. The system can be used as a a demonstration decision support system, a demonstration negotiation support system, a game, a negotiation simulator, and a research and training tool.Footnote 1
The negotiation support system Negoisst (Schoop et al 2003) enables complex electronic negotiations to be conducted by human negotiators. It offers communication support, conflict management, contract management, and decision support (Schoop et al 2004). The system is used to support cooperation between teams in the construction industry (Schoop 2002).
Early Intelligent Negotiation Support Systems
Alan Turing proposed the Turing Test as to examine the question "Can machines think” (Turing, 1950). Traditional Artificial Intelligence has included major components of rule-based reasoning, case-based reasoning and machine learning. These processes were distinguished from other less cognitive but more numerically based techniques such as operations research and statistics. Lodder and Zeleznikow (2005) argued that Artificial Intelligence involves the study of automated human intelligence, including the practice of building computer systems to perform intelligent tasks and conducting research on how to represent knowledge in a computer comprehensible form.
It is not the goal of this review to examine arguments as to the nature of artificial intelligence. Rather, we wish to chart the evolution of intelligent negotiation support systems and intelligent online dispute resolution systems. We view intelligent systems as a hybrid of traditional artificial intelligence, operations research and statistical techniques. We accept a system as intelligent if its developers self-report the system as being intelligent and it incorporates some aspect of artificial intelligence, such as rule-based reasoning, case-based reasoning or machine learning.
Hybrid systems can be seen in Aspire (Kersten 2004) which comprised INSPIRE and Atin, a rule-based negotiation software agent that oversaw the process and gave the user suggestions. Lodder and Zeleznikow (2005) proposed intelligent ODR systems which would use Artificial Intelligence (to advise upon BATNAs), communication theory and game theory to advise upon trade-offs.
In the early 1980s, the Rand Corporation used artificial intelligence to develop two settlement oriented DSS. They provided advice about risk assessment in damages claims. Lift Dispatching System (LDS) (Waterman and Peterson 1981) supported professionals in settling product liability cases, whilst System for Asbestos Litigation (SAL) (Waterman et al 1986) helped insurance claims adjusters evaluate claims related to asbestos exposure.
The Estate Planning System of Schlobohm and Waterman (1987) performed testamentary estate planning.
An example of a NSS which supported one party in a dispute is NEGOPLAN (Matwin et al 1989) which was a rule-based system that advised upon industrial disputes in the Canadian paper industry (Kersten 1995). The NEGOPLAN method did not simulate the entire negotiation process. The opposing party’s goals and sub-goals were hidden from the side supported by NEGOPLAN.
Case-based reasoning was developed in the 1980s to supplement rule-based reasoning. It uses prior experiences to analyse new problems, examine their similarity to the current problem and supports adapting previous solutions to problems to resolve the current problem. PERSUADER (Sycara 1993) integrated case-based reasoning and game theory to provide negotiation support to assist with the resolution of U.S. labour disputes. Mediator (Kolodner and Simpson 1989) used case retrieval and adaptation to generate enhanced resolutions to international disputes.
The first system to provide negotiation support by utilising machine learning was the Split-Up system (Stranieri and Zeleznikow 2006). The system provides advice about Australian family law – namely about the distribution of marital property following separation in Australia (Stranieri et al 1999). It uses a hybrid of rule-based reasoning and machine learning. The machine learning process used is that of neural networks.Footnote 2
Twenty-five years ago, computer hardware did not have its current capability. Due to restrictions placed upon the Split-Up developers, they were only able to use 103 unreported cases from the Melbourne registry of the Family Court of Australia. The printed copies of the cases were not allowed out of the Registry and the case details had to be coded into a spreadsheet. The Split-Up system had a sophisticated knowledge representation scheme using the argumentation theory of the British philosopher Stephen Toulmin (Toulmin 1958).
The Split-Up system was not initially designed to support negotiation. It was only when the system was shown to legal professionals, that its developers realised that one of the major practical legal benefits of the system was that it could easily support negotiation. It does so by advising all the disputants about their respective BATNAs and hence provides an important anchor for negotiations.
Schoop et al (2004) argues that Electronic negotiation support is a research area in which numerous approaches and solutions are proposed and analysed. They claim that approaches are divided into two distinct schools:
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1.
This school uses a decision theoretic form of decision-making in which negotiation is viewed as the interaction of two or more agents who cannot make independent decisions, granting concessions so as to achieve a compromise (Kersten et al 1991)
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This school has a communication perspective on negotiations. Here, the question is how people communicate during a negotiation and which effects of communication are useful.
Kaya and Schoop (2019) discussed two different data mining techniques supported pattern recognition in NSSs. Data was procured from several international negotiation experiments using their NSS Negoisst. Association Rule Discovery was used as a descriptive technique to generate essential sets of strategic association patterns.Footnote 3 Decision trees were applied as a supervised learning technique for the prediction of classification patterns.Footnote 4 Kaya and Schoop examined the extent to which reliable as well as valuable patterns can be derived from the electronic negotiation data and valuable predictions can be generated resulting from the process.
In Kaya and Schoop (2020) they extended their work on machine learning by developing Text Mining-based pre-processing approaches and dimensionality reduction algorithms from Feature Extraction and Feature Selection. In doing so, the maintenance of data richness in communication data was considered as the overall goal to determine the dataset with minimal information loss.
Game Theory as a source of Intelligent Negotiation Support
Game theory, a branch of applied mathematics, was developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) to provide advice about the optimal distribution of resources. It was developed totally independently of the theory of artificial intelligence, but nevertheless provides very useful intelligent negotiation advice and support (Table 1).
Table 1 Recent winners of Nobel prizes in Economicds for work on game theory that is related to negotiation support Various researchers have won Nobel prizes in Economics for work on game theory that is related to negotiation support.
Each party involved in a negotiation is viewed as an agent (Table 1). Sycara (1998) claims that when developing real world NSSs, developers must assume bounded rationality and the presence of incomplete information. In process of developing negotiation decision-making strategies, we necessarily assume that each agent has a utility. The aim of game theory is to optimize these utility functions.
Brams and Taylor (1996) used Decision Theory and Game theoretic techniques to develop the Adjusted Winner algorithm. The algorithm uses a two-party point allocation procedure which distributes items or issues to disputants based on the premise of allocating items to those individuals who value the issue more highly. The principles behind the Adjusted Winner algorithm were the basis of Bellucci and Zeleznikow’s (2005) Family Winner system.
In extending the research of Stranieri et al. (1999) on negotiation in Australian Family Law, Bellucci and Zeleznikow (2005) noted that an important way in which family mediators encourage disputants to resolve their conflicts is by using compromise and trade-offs. Once appropriate trade-offs have been identified, other decision-making mechanisms must be employed to resolve the dispute. The Family Winner system displays trade-offs relating to each disputant through a graphical series of trade-off maps (Zeleznikow and Bellucci 2003). Their incorporation of the maps into the system enables disputants to visually understand trade-off opportunities relevant to their side of the dispute.
Ernie Thiessen (1993) used game theory and in particular trade-offs to develop an efficient methodology to solve complex negotiation problems. Thiessen et al (1998) described the Interactive Computer-Assisted Negotiation Support system (ICANS) which can be used during the negotiation process by both the opposing parties and a professional mediator. ICANS assists all parties to identify feasible alternatives. This research has led to the development of the Smartsettle system,Footnote 5 which is being used in Canada to help resolve environmental disputes, family disputes, first nations disputes and conflicts about estates.
As we shall see in Sect. 4, game theory can be combined with many other processes, including rule-based reasoning, case-based reasoning and machine learning to develop generic Online Dispute Resolution systems. Before investigating how to develop generic systems, we discuss a few NSS in specific domains of Family law and international relations.
Negotiation Support Systems in specific domains
Family Law Negotiation Support Systems
As we discussed earlier, in the domain of Australian Family Law, Split-Up uses rule-based reasoning and machine learning (via neural networks), together with an elegant argumentation system to advise upon BATNAs with regards to property distribution. Whilst it is not classified as a NSS, Split-Up provides important negotiation advice.Footnote 6
The Split-Up system kindled Zeleznikow’s interest in ODR, and led him to investigate how could Artificial Intelligence be used to help support ODR. The Family Winner System of Bellucci and Zeleznikow (2005) provided advice to disputing parents on how they could best negotiate trade-offs. The disputing parties were asked to indicate how much they valued each item in dispute. Through the use of logrolling, parties obtained those issues that they really desired. Thus, Family Winner uses game theory to perform trade-offs to support disputants to engage in win–win negotiations.Footnote 7
Our Family Wizard {discussed in (Lewis 2015) and (Barsky 2016)}is a US app that supports communications amongst separated parents. It is an electronic posting service that is a tool that can provide verifiable evidence of how parental communication takes place. The primary goal of Our Family Wizard is to assist separating parents to engage in appropriate and civil behaviour. The system also provides help in developing parenting plans and allows judges and other decision-makers to see a record of parent behaviour and cooperation.
Just as US Family Courts have advocated the use of Our Family Wizard, The Australian Family Court system has similarly, but unofficially, adopted an app (MyMob) designed to help separated families manage daily life. Judges prefer families to use the app because it fosters positive communication.Footnote 8 The app essentially holds parents "accountable" for their children's welfare. The app also includes a virtual "fridge" for children to post vital information such as health details, birthday wish lists and school details.
Adieu Technologies is a Queensland Australia company that offers family law advice, supports the triaging of family conflicts and assists with drafting parental plans once agreements are reached.Footnote 9 One of Adieu’s agents, Lumi is a bot with expertise in counselling, law and mediation. Following a conversation with a client, Lumi creates a step-by-step plan to assist the client navigate through the mediation.
Amica advises about property distribution in Australian Family Law.Footnote 10 It was developed by Portable in conjunction with National Legal Aid of Australia and the Legal Services Commission of South Australia. It incorporates the reasoning of the Split-Up system. In a manner akin to Split-Up, Amica includes a machine learning algorithm that provides a suggested division of a former couple's total assets.
Negotiation Support Systems for International Relations
There has been much research on the development of NSS which deal with international relations.
As discussed previously, the Mediator system (Kolodner and Simpson 1989) used case-based reasoning to generate resolutions to international disputes. The Adjusted Winner algorithm of Brams and Taylor (1996) has been used to analyse both the Panama Canal treaty negotiations and the Camp David Accords. Brams and Togman (1996) applied the Adjusted Winner procedure to the final status issues between Israel and the Palestinians and reached a similar result to the final agreement. Massoud (2000) used interest-based negotiation (namely the Adjusted Winner algorithm) to propose a plausible solution to the final status issues between Israel and the Palestinians.
In a similar manner, Zeleznikow (2014) in attempting to compare dispute resolution processes, compared Australian family dispute resolution processes with efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. He used the AssetDivider system of Bellucci and Zeleznikow (2005) to analyse the Middle East dispute. As a result of the AssetDivider suggested allocation, it was recommended that (1) Israel recognise a Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, (2) the Israelis dismantle the current security fence. (3) The Israelis evacuate those smaller settlements in Judea and Samaria that are not within a close proximity to existing Israeli borders.
So that such a solution would be acceptable to Israel it was recommended that: (4) The Palestinians would need to recognise the State of Israel and encourage other Arab states to do likewise. (5) The Palestinians would need to forgo any right of return to Israel (for which they would be adequately compensated) and (6) The Palestinians would need to make significant efforts to ensure that no anti-Israel violence emanated from Israeli territories. In addition, the system suggested that it would be desirable for the Palestinians to encourage the Iranian government not to develop nuclear weapons and not to make belligerent statements against Israel.
Denoon and Brams (1997) used the Adjusted Winner algorithm of Brams and Taylor (1996) to advise upon the claims of China, Taiwan and four Southeast Asian Nations countries—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam—to the land areas and surrounding waters of the Spratly Islands (a group of over 230 small islands and reefs in the South China Sea). Control of the Spratly Islands was deemed to be desirable because there is an expectation that the Islands have major oil and gas deposits.
The GENIE system of Wilkenfield et al. (1995). integrated rule-based reasoning and multi-attribute analysis to advise upon international disputes. Extending this work, Kraus et al (2008) developed an automated agent that negotiates efficiently with human players in a simulated bilateral international crisis. The agent negotiates in a situation characterized by time constraints, deadlines, full information, and the possibility of opting out of negotiations. Kraus et al. focussed on a conflict between Spain and Canada about access to fishing in the North Atlantic Ocean. Canada claims that Spain is overfishing near Canadian territorial waters and by doing so is damaging the flatfish stock.
Whilst Prawer (2019) and Prawer and Zeleznikow (2019) do not develop NSS, they do use computer tools (namely data mining) to analyse the arbitration of international conflicts. They contend that the useful analysis of the behaviour of parties in international conflicts requires the examination of power-based approaches. In the domain of International Disputes, war is the most common power-based approach. A failure to investigate armed conflict leads to a warped analysis of the effectiveness, and limitations, of non-violent methods of resolving conflicts.
Our discussion of the use of NSS for resolving international conflicts has focussed on disputes between countries. However, there are very important international legal conflicts between people and not countries, that benefit from the use of Online Dispute Resolution. With the increasing interconnectedness of the global economy and relevant supply chains, there has been an increase in private international conflict. Further many stakeholders have become increasingly receptive to utilizing ODR to resolve cross-border disputes. The prevalence of covid19 has further demonstrated the effectiveness of ODR in the absence of face-to-face dispute resolution. One important example of global civil justice disputes is the resolution of child abduction cases under the Hague Convention.Footnote 11
Yet another field in which NSS are being used is the domain of labour relations conflicts. As discussed previously, Negoplan (Canada) and Persuader (USA) used Artificial Intelligence to provide negotiation support for industrial relations conflicts.