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Numerical Methods to Calculate Fuzzy Boundaries for Brownfield Redevelopment Negotiations

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Abstract

A numerical method is proposed to represent the likelihood of contamination of a brownfield using fuzzy boundaries, and then to estimate the parameters in a fuzzy real options model for brownfield evaluation from different decision maker perspectives. These different values can be used to facilitate negotiations on redevelopment projects. Linguistic quantifiers and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) techniques are utilized to determine the pollution likelihood at sample locations based on multiple environmental indicators. Risk preferences of decision makers are expressed as different “orness” levels of OWA operators, which affect likelihood estimates. When the fuzzy boundary of a brownfield is generated by interpolation of sample points, the parameters of fuzzy real options, drift rate and volatility, can be calculated as fuzzy numbers. Hence, this proposed method can act as an intermediate between decision makers and the fuzzy real options models, making this model much easier to apply. A potential negotiation support system (NSS) implementing these numerical methods is discussed in the context of negotiating brownfield redevelopment projects. A public–private-partnership will be enhanced through information sharing, scenario generation, and conflict analysis provided by the NSS, encouraging more efficient brownfield redevelopment and leading to greater regional sustainability.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fusion Project Portfolio Management Application, Oracle Corporation, Redwood Shores, CA, 94065, USA

    Qian Wang

  2. Department of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3C5, Canada

    D. Marc Kilgour

  3. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada

    Keith W. Hipel

Authors
  1. Qian Wang
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  2. D. Marc Kilgour
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  3. Keith W. Hipel
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Correspondence to D. Marc Kilgour.

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Wang, Q., Marc Kilgour, D. & Hipel, K.W. Numerical Methods to Calculate Fuzzy Boundaries for Brownfield Redevelopment Negotiations. Group Decis Negot 24, 515–536 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-014-9417-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-014-9417-3

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