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Community/Public Approach to Earthquake Forecasting in the Era of Big Data: An On-going Endeavor in China

Abstract

Public Participation (in earthquake monitoring and forecast) and Public Preparedness (for seismic disaster risk reduction), or P4, is one of the interesting, and often underestimated approach to earthquake forecast. In the era of big data, this community/public approach faces new challenges and new opportunities and may contribute to earthquake science. Taking China as an example, and focusing on earthquake forecasts. This article reviews some of the key issues currently under discussion. It seems that new developments make it possible to foster a ‘version 2.0’ of P4, empowered by information technology.

Article Highlight

  • How the traditional mobilization and organization of the public to cooperate on earthquake forecast change in the time of big data, with technical background updated completely compared to the last century, reviews some on-going works in China and discusses them.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Earthquake magnitude and origin time used in this article is from the earthquake catalogues of the China Seismic Network.

  2. 2.

    Statistics by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China (January 26, 2021), https://www.miit.gov.cn/zwgk/zcjd/art/2021/art_11eba47cf1ad4bbbb014bd30236afd58.html, in Chinese. Last access: February 18, 2021.

  3. 3.

    China Earthquake Administration (CEA) Open File, 2021, in Chinese.

  4. 4.

    English translation: http://www.lawinfochina.com/Display.aspx?lib=law&Cgid=111778. Last access: February 18, 2021.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks to the editorial group of this Special Issue for the invitation, to Profs. V. G. Kossobokov and A. Zavyalov for stimulating discussion, and to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive and informative comments. Mr. K. Wang and Prof. W.Y. Liu provided the authors with useful information. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. U2039207) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFE0109700).

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Correspondence to Yongxian Zhang.

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Wu, Z., Zhang, Y. Community/Public Approach to Earthquake Forecasting in the Era of Big Data: An On-going Endeavor in China. Surv Geophys (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-021-09661-5

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Keywords

  • Earthquake forecast
  • Public participation
  • Macro-anomalies
  • Information technology