Abstract
Pakistan has been facing terrorism for the last two decades, especially after 9/11 and the start of the war on terrorism in Afghanistan. The core objectives of this study are to analyse terrorism spread geographically, and variation in attack intensity values over time using existing and modified attack intensity equations and the impact of different weapons in collateral damage assessment. Moreover, this research proposes a modified equation for attack intensity or collateral damage assessment using Exploratory Regression Analysis. The geographical spread of attack intensity values over time was measured for the 2004–2016, period and their respective levels of violence. Spatial autocorrelation using Global Moran’s I statistic and cluster and outlier analysis using Anselin Local Moran’s I statistic were performed to locate high and low attack intensity clusters in the study area. Results reveal that from 2004 to 2016, terrorism peaked in Pakistan, especially in the Northern, North–West, and Southern regions. Cities like Karachi, Peshawar, Lahore, Quetta, and Khyber Agencies witnessed maximum attacks and fatalities. During 2004–16 districts having the highest attack intensity values were randomly distributed across the study area. Using Exploratory Regression Analysis, the modified attack intensity equation resulted in a smooth pattern with fewer outlier effects and abrupt changes. Data analysis of 2004–16 reveals that maximum collateral damage occurred due to suicide attacks in one-by-one relationships. In one-by-two relationships, suicide attacks plus firearms had maximum collateral damage.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Afridi, M. K., Yousufi, M., & Khan, M. (2014). Military operation as a response to terrorism: A case study of Malakand division Pakistan. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(20), 2000.
Afsar, M. M., Aslam, K., Minhas, A. I. & Iqbal. (2012). Spatio-temporal analysis of terrorism incidents & law enforcement operations in Pakistan (2008–12). In National conference on disaster management, at military college of Engineering, Risalpur, Pakistan.
Arce, M. D. G., & Sandler, T. (2003). An evolutionary game approach to fundamentalism and conflict. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE) Zeitschrift Für Die gesamteStaatswissenschaft, 159, 132–154.
Azam, M. (2014). Genesis of militancy in Pakistan. Islamabad Policy Research Institute, 14(1), 102–123.
Bahgat, K., & Medina, R. M. (2013). An overview of geographical perspectives and approaches in terrorism research. Perspectives on Terrorism, 7(1), 38–72.
Berrebi, C., & Lakdawalla, D. (2007). How does terrorism risk vary across space and time? An analysis based on the Israeli experience. Defence and Peace Economics, 18(2), 113-131.
Bhatti, J. A., Mehmood, A., Shahid, M., Bhatti, S. A., Akhtar, U., & Razzak, J. A. (2011). Epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the Pakistani civilian population. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, 18(3), 205–211.
Braithwaite, A., & Johnson, S. D. (2012). Space-time modelling of insurgency and counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 28(1), 31–48.
Burnham, G. (2011). Suicide attacks—the rationale and consequences. The Lancet, 378(9794), 855–857.
Eck, J. E. (1997). What do those dots mean? Mapping theories with data. Crime mapping and crime prevention, 8, 379-406.
ESRI. (2016). How cluster and outlier analysis: Anselin local Moran’s I (spatial statistics) works. Retrieved August 10 2019, from http://resources.esri.com/help/9.3/arcgisengine/java/gp_toolref/spatial_statistics_tools/cluster_and_outlier_analysis_colon_anselin_local_moran_s_i_spatial_statistics_.htm.
Govt of Pakistan Ministry of Finance. (2017). Impact of war in Afghanistan and ensuing terrorism on Pakistan’s economy. Retrieved 2017, from http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_17/Annex_IV_War.pdf
Hao, M., Jiang, D., Ding, F., Fu, J., & Chen, S. (2019). Simulating spatiotemporal patterns of terrorism incidents on the Indochina peninsula with GIS and the random forest method. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(3), 133.
Henkin, S., Boyd, M. A., & Martin, A. (2020). Southeast Asia after the Caliphate: Identifying spatial trends in terrorism and radicalization in Malaysia. Statistics, Politics and Policy, 1(ahead-of-Print), 11, 139–165.
Hussain, S. E. (2010). Terrorism in Pakistan: Incident patterns, terrorists’ characteristics, and the impact of terrorist arrests on terrorism. In PhD Dissertation at the University of Pennsylvania.
IEP. (2017). Global Terrorism Index. Sydney.
Kazim, S. F., Aly, Z., Bangash, H. K., Harchandani, B. P., Bin Irfan, A., Javed, S. M., & Khan, M. M. (2008). Attitudes toward suicide bombing in Pakistan. Crisis, 29(2), 81–85.
Khan, A. U., Saboor, A., Hussain, A., Karim, S., & Hussain, S. (2015). Spatial and temporal investigation of multidimensional poverty in rural Pakistan. Poverty & Public Policy, 7(2), 158–175.
LaFree, G., Dugan, L., Xie, M., & Singh, P. (2012). Spatial and temporal patterns of terrorist attacks by ETA 1970 to 2007. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 28(1), 7–29.
Lanche, J. (2009). Suicide terrorism in Pakistan. In Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
Medina, R., & Hepner, G. (2008). Geospatial analysis of dynamic terrorist networks. Values and violence (pp. 151–167). Springer.
Medina, R. M., Siebeneck, L. K., & Hepner, G. F. (2011). A geographic information systems (GIS) analysis of spatiotemporal patterns of terrorist incidents in Iraq 2004–2009. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 34(11), 862–882.
Mitchell, A. (2005). The ESRI guide to GIS analysis: Vol. 2. Spatial measurement and statistics. ESRI press.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). (2020). Global terrorism database [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd.
Nemeth, S. C., Mauslein, J. A., & Stapley, C. (2014). The primacy of the local: Identifying terrorist hot spots using geographic information systems. The Journal of Politics, 76(2), 304–317.
O’Sullivan, D., & Unwin, D. J. (2002). Geographic information analysis. Wiley.
Raleigh, C., Witmer, F., & O’Loughlin, J. (2010). The Spatial Analysis of War. In The International Studies Encyclopedia. Wiley-Blackwell. Retrieved 10 Aug. 2019, from https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191842665.001.0001/acref-9780191842665-e-0344.
Rasheed, S., & Khalid, N. (2019). A study of assorted data on suicide bombings in Pakistan. The Journal of DefenseModeling and Simulation, 16(3), 273–282.
Saul, B. (2005). Definition of “terrorism” in the UN security council: 1985–2004. Chinese Journal of International Law, 4(1), 141–166.
Siebeneck, L. K., Medina, R. M., Yamada, I., & Hepner, G. F. (2009). Spatial and temporal analyses of terrorist incidents in Iraq, 2004–2006. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 32(7), 591–610.
Smith, B. L., Cothren, J., Roberts, P., & Damphousse, K. R. (2008). Geospatial analysis of terrorist activities: the identification of spatial and temporal patterns of preparatory behavior of international and environmental terrorists. Report No. 222909. US Department of Justice. Retrieved 10 Dec 2019, from https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/222909.pdf.
Sumathipala, W. G., &Wijesekera, N. T. (2008). Using GIS for assessment of terrorist attack risk along a major road and to propose security options. Engineer: Journal of the Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka, vol. 41, No. (5).
Toll, Z. (2017). Terrorism in Colombia: The revolutionary armed forces of Colombia (FARC) and the national liberation army (ELN). Journal of Mason Graduate Research, 4(1), 16–30.
Wang, B., Shi, W., & Miao, Z. (2015). Confidence analysis of standard deviational ellipse and its extension into higher dimensional Euclidean space. PLoS ONE, 10(3), e0118537.
Webb, J. J., & Cutter, S. L. (2009). The geography of US terrorist incidents, 1970–2004. Terrorism and Political Violence, 21(3), 428–449.
Youngblood, M. (2020). Extremist ideology as a complex contagion: The spread of far-right radicalisation in the United States between 2005 and 2017. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 7(1), 1–1.
Acknowledgement
We are very thankful to the administration of PMAS Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi for supporting us during this research.
Funding
There is no funding involved in this research from any organisation.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest among them regarding the publication of this work.
Ethical statement
In this research, no human or animal was involved.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Imran, S., Amin, M., Tahir, M.N. et al. Geographical spread analysis of terrorist attacks in Pakistan. GeoJournal 88, 4585–4601 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-023-10885-8
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-023-10885-8