Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Violence in Nigeria’s 2019 general elections: trend and geospatial dimensions

  • Published:
GeoJournal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This article assesses the manifestations of violence in Nigeria’s 2019 general elections, focusing on trend and spatial dimensions. The article also engages three methodological concerns against most academic studies on electoral violence in Nigeria and beyond. First, research in this area are dominated by extensive narrative, which often reduces quantity of electoral violence in Nigeria to politicised (conflicting, speculative and unverifiable) aggregate data on fatalities. Second, the rising quantification of electoral violence in Nigeria are dominated by perception surveys with little efforts to reconcile them with actual records. Third, large-n studies on violence recorded around elections in Africa are proliferating with sophisticated quantification techniques, which hardly accommodate country-specific details. In contrast, this study observed 2177 incidents of conflict recorded in Nigeria during the period of the elections, and extracted 275 cases of electoral violence for analysis. These data allow us to re-examine the prevailing periodisation of electoral violence in the literature, which ignored violence during inter-election periods. This study also identifies the national distribution and subnational concentration of the violence. These are relevant to guide policy research, advocacies, decisions and security preparedness for peaceful election in Nigeria.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Source: data extracted from ACLED (2019b). Note: IEP is Inter-election period

Fig. 2

Source: data extracted from ACLED (2019b)

Fig. 3

Source: data extracted from ACLED (2019b)

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdul-Latif, R., & Emery, M. (2015). FES pre-election survey in Nigeria 2014. Washington, DC.: International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

    Google Scholar 

  • ACLED. (2019a). Armed conflict location & event data project (ACLED) Codebook. https://acleddata.com (accessed on September 10, 2019).

  • ACLED. (2019b). Armed conflict location & event data project (ACLED). https://acleddata.com (accessed on September 10, 2019).

  • Angerbrandt, H. (2018). Deadly elections: post-election violence in Nigeria. Journal of Modern African Studies, 56(1), 143–167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Animashaun, M. A. (2015). Nigeria 2015 presidential election: The votes, the fears and the regime change. African Journal of Election, 14(2), 186–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basedau, M., Erdmann, G., & Mehler, A. (Eds.). (2007). Votes, money and violence: Political parties and elections in Sub-Saharan Africa. Scottsville: University of KwaZulu-Natal Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • BBC. (2019). Nigeria election 2019: Counting under way, 24 February 2019

  • Bekoe, D. (2011). Nigeria’s 2011 elections: Best run, but most violent. Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bekoe, D. A., & Burchard, S. M. (2017). The contradictions of pre-election violence: The effects of violence on voter turnout in sub-Saharan Africa. African Studies Review, 60(2), 73–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benn, E., Miguel, E., & Posner, D. N. (2010). Political competition and ethnic identification in Africa. American Journal of Political Science, 54(2), 494–510.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bratton, M. (2008). Vote buying and violence in Nigerian election campaigns. Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 99.

  • Campbell, J. (2010). Nigeria: Dancing on the brink. Ibadan: Bookcraft.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheibub, J. A., & Hays, J. C. (2017). Elections and civil war in Africa. Political Science Research and Methods, 5(1), 81–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foundation, C. L. E. E. N. (2019). Security threat assessment for 2019 general elections in Nigeria. Abuja: CLEEN Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Foundation, C. L. E. E. N. (2020). Security threat assessment for 2020 governorship elections in Ondo State, Nigeria. Abuja: CLEEN Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Collier, P. (2010). Wars, guns and votes: Democracy in dangerous places. New York: HarperCollins Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daxecker, U. E. (2014). All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections. Electoral Studies, 34(June), 232–243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diamond, L. (1988). Class, ethnicity and democracy in Nigeria: The failure of the first republic. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ezeibe, C. C. (2020). Hate speech and election violence in Nigeria. Journal of Asian and African Studies. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909620951208.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Federal government of Nigeria (FGN). (2010). Electoral Act. Abuja: FGN.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldsmith, A. A. (2015). Elections and civil violence in new multiparty regimes: Evidence from Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 52(5), 607–621.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hafner-Burton, E. M., Hyde, S. D., & Jablonski, R. S. (2018). Surviving elections: Election violence, incumbent victory, and post-election repercussions. British Journal of Political Science, 48(2), 459–488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamalai, L., Egwu, S. G., & Omotola, J.S. (2017). Nigeria’s 2015 general elections: Continuity and change in electoral democracy. UK: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Höglund, K. (2009). Electoral violence in conflict-ridden societies: Concepts causes, and consequences. Terrorism and Political Violence, 21(3), 412–427.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ICG (International Crisis Group). (2014). Nigeria’s dangerous 2015 elections: Limiting the violence, Africa Report N°220, 21 November.

  • Igwe, D. O. (2012). The perception of electoral violence and democratization in Ibadan Oyo State Southwest Nigeria. Democracy and Security, 8(1), 51–71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • INEC. (2018). Time table and schedule of activities for 2019 general elections, January 9.

  • Joseph, R. (1991). Democracy and prebendal politics in Nigeria: the rise and fall of the second republic. Ibadan: Spectrum Books Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maier, K. (2000). This House Has Fallen: Nigeria in Crisis. London: Penguin Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matlosa, K., Khadiagala, G.M., Shale, V. (eds). (2010). When elephants fight: Preventing and resolving election-related conflicts in Africa. EISA.

  • National Human Rights Commission of Nigeria. (2015). A pre-election report and advisory on violence in Nigeria’s 2015 general elections. Abuja: The National Human Rights Commission of Nigeria, February 13, 2015.

  • Omilusi, M. (2017). Your vote or your life: Tracking the tangible and intangible dangers in Nigeria’s electoral politics.

  • Omotola, J. S. (2009). ‘Garrison’ democracy in Nigeria: The 2007 general elections and the prospects of democratic consolidation. Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, 47(2), 195–221.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotola, J. S. (2010). Elections and democratic transitions in Nigeria under the Fourth Republic. African Affairs, 109(437), 535–553.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotola, J. S. (2010). Mechanisms of post-election conflict resolution in Africa’s ‘new’ democracies. African Security Review, 19(2), 2–13.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotola, J. S. (2011). Explaining electoral violence in Africa’s new democracies. African Journal on Conflict Resolution, 10(3), 52–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotola, J. S., Nyuykonge, C. (2015). Nigeria’s 2015 general elections: Challenges and opportunities, ACCORD Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) No. 33; available at http://www.accord.org.za/images/downloads/brief/ACCORD-policy-practice-brief-33.pdf.

  • Omotola, J. S. (2019). The Challenge of Electoral Management in Nigeria, Special Issue of Kujenga Amani on Perspectives on the Postponement of Nigeria’s 2019 Election, African Peacebuilding Network (APN), Social Science Research Council (SSRC), New York; available at https://kujenga-amani.ssrc.org/2019/02/22/the-challenge-of-electoral-management-in-nigeria/

  • Onapajo, H. (2014). Violence and votes in Nigeria: The dominance of incumbents in the use of violence to rig elections. Africa Spectrum, 49(2), 27–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Onimisi, T., & Tinuola, O. L. (2019). Appraisal of the 2019 post-electoral violence in Nigeria. Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 4(3), 107–113.

    Google Scholar 

  • Onwudiwe, E., & Berwind-Dart, C. (2010). Breaking the cycle of electoral violence in Nigeria (p. 263). Special Report: United States Institute of Peace.

    Google Scholar 

  • Orji, N., Uzodi, N. (2012). The 2011 post election violence in Nigeria. Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre (PLAC).

  • Osaghae, E. (2011). Cripple giant: Nigeria since independence. Ibadan: John Archers Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oyediran, O., Diamond, L., & Kirk-Greene, A. (1997). Transition Without End: Nigerian politics and civil society under Babangida. Ibadan: Vantage Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salehyan, I., & Linebarger, C. (2014). Elections and social conflict in Africa, 1990–2009. Studies in Comparative International Development, 50(1), 23–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SBM Intelligence. (2019). Mounting Electoral Violence. sbmintel.com.

  • TEI (The Electoral Institute). . (2019). Report of Security Threat Assessment for 2019 General Elections in Nigeria. Abuja: TEI.

    Google Scholar 

  • TEI. (2020). Report of security threat assessment for 2020 governorship election in Edo State. Nigeria, Abuja: TEI.

    Google Scholar 

  • Verjee, A., Kwaja, C., & Onubogu, O. (2018). Nigeria’s 2019 elections: Change, continuity, and the risks to peace (p. 429). Special Report: United States Institute of Peace.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Political Science, Federal University Oye-Ekiti (FUOYE), Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria

    Samuel Oyewole & J. Shola Omotola

  2. Department of Political Studies and International Relations, North West University (NWU), Mahikeng, South Africa

    Samuel Oyewole

Authors
  1. Samuel Oyewole
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. Shola Omotola
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Samuel Oyewole.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

There is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Oyewole, S., Omotola, J.S. Violence in Nigeria’s 2019 general elections: trend and geospatial dimensions. GeoJournal 87, 2393–2403 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10375-9

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-021-10375-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation