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A Quantitative Rockfall Risk Analysis System for Highway Rock Slopes

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Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative methodology for rockfall risk analysis focusing on highway crystalline rock slopes. The proposed method resulted in a risk classification given by a matrix, which relates the rockfall likelihood, with its consequence. The likelihood considers the characteristics of the rock masses and the consequence takes into account the chance of the block reaching the highway and causing accidents. The rockfall likelihood and the consequences are obtained by equations, whose values allow classifying the slopes as high, medium (transition zone), or low rockfall risk. These equations and the matrix of the risk analysis system were generated using linear discriminant analysis and confidence ellipses, both multivariate statistical techniques. Principal component analysis was applied to the dataset before the linear discriminant analysis in order to change qualitative variables into quantitative ones. To establish the classes of failure likelihood and its consequences, cluster analysis was applied. Afterwards, discriminant analysis was applied using the scores of the principal components as independent variables and the resulting clusters as dependent variables. The dataset used in this research has 220 rock slopes and the main variables considered are the parameters traditionally used in hazard and risk classifications for highway slopes.

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Data Availability

The codes used to cluster analysis during the current study are available in the Github repository, https://github.com/larissarcs/PAM_cluster_Likelihood

The codes used to perform the Principal Component Analysis, Discriminant Analysis and Confidence Ellipses analysis during the current study are available in the Github repository, https://github.com/larissarcs/PCA-and-Discriminant-Analysis. The datasets analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge CNPq (National Counsel of Technological and Scientific Development), Fapemig (Foundation for Research Support of Minas Gerais), Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES) and Federal University of Ouro Preto (UFOP) for supporting this work and the PhD Paul Santi, Professor of Colorado School of Mines, to provide the database used in this research.

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The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Science and Technology Materials Department – DCTM, Polytechnic School, Federal University of Bahia – UFBA, Federação, Salvador, Bahia, CEP 40210-630, Brazil

    Larissa Regina Costa Silveira

  2. Mining Engineering Department – DEMIN, Federal University of Ouro Preto – UFOP, Campi Morro Do Cruzeiro, Bauxita, Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, CEP 35400000, Brazil

    Milene Sabino Lana & Tatiana Barreto dos Santos

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  1. Larissa Regina Costa Silveira
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  2. Milene Sabino Lana
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  3. Tatiana Barreto dos Santos
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by LRCS, MSL and TBdosS. The first draft of the manuscript was written by LRCS and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Milene Sabino Lana.

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Silveira, L.R.C., Lana, M.S. & dos Santos, T.B. A Quantitative Rockfall Risk Analysis System for Highway Rock Slopes. Geotech Geol Eng 42, 1131–1152 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-023-02609-z

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