Abstract
Nowadays, there are many new methods for slope stability analysis; including probabilistic methods assessing geotechnical uncertainties to develop safety factors. In this paper, a reliability index analysis for the Sungun copper mine slope stability is evaluated based on three methods of uncertainties consisting Taylor series method, Rosenblueth point estimate method and Monte-Carlo simulation method. Sungun copper mine will be one of the Iran’s biggest mines with final pit’s height of 700 meters. For this study two of its main slopes were assessed, one dipping to the NE (030) and the other to the SE (140). Probability density function of cohesion and angle of friction for the slopes were developed using limit equilibrium methods. These shear strengths were then used to determine the probability density function of safety factor and reliability index using the probabilistic methods. Results of the probabilistic analysis indicate that with ascending values of the uncertainties the reliability index decreases. Furthermore, it was determined that with the Monte Carlo simulation the seed number used has little effect on the reliability index of the safety factor especially with seed numbers in excess of 1200. Variations in the overall reliability index of safety factor were observed between the two slopes and this difference is explained by the differences in complexities of the geology within the cross-section.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abbaszadeh M, Shahryar K, Sharifzade M, Heydari M (2006) Classification and determination of Sungun copper mine rock mass properties uncertainties. J Eng Geol Teach Train Univ 2(2):377–394
Abdullah I, Waleed F, Fayez A (2000) Uncertainty and reliability analysis applied to slope stability. Struct Saf 22:161–187
Abramson LW (2002) Slope stability and stabilization methods. McGraw-Hill, New York
Alonso EE (1976) Risk analysis of slopes and its application to slopes in Canadian sensitive clays. Geotechnique 26(3):453–472
Baecher GB, Christian JT (2003) Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering. Wiley, London
Barabosa MR, Morris DV, Sarma SK (1989) Factor of safety and probability of failure of rock fill embankments. Geotechnique 39(3):471–483
Bishop AW (1955) The use of slip circle in the stability analysis of slopes. Geotechnique 5:7–17
Chowdhury RN, Xu DW (1993) Rational polynomial technique in slope stability analysis. J Geotech Eng Div 119(12):1910–1928
Christian JT, Ladd CC, Baecher GB (1994) Reliability applied to slope stability analysis. J Geotech Eng Div 120(12):2180–2207
Cornell CA (1971) First-order uncertainty analysis of soil deformation and stability. In: Proceedings of 1st international conference on application of probability and statistics in soil and structural engineering (ICAPI), Hong Kong, pp 129–144
Dai Y, Fredlund DG, Stolte WJ (1993) A probabilistic slope stability analysis using deterministic computer soft ware. In: Proceedings of conference on probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering, Canbera, Australia, 10–12 February. pp 267–274
Duncan JM (2000) Factor of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering. J Geotechn Geoenviron Eng ASCE 126(4):307–316
Hassan AM, Wolff TF (2000) Effect of deterministic and probabilistic models on slope reliability index. In: Griffiths DV et al (ed) Slope stability 2000, GSP No. 101 pp 194–208
Janbu N (1954) Application of composite slip surface for stability analysis. In: Proceedings of European conference on stability of earth slopes, Stockholm, Sweden, pp 43–49
Lacasse S, Nadim F (1996) Uncertainties in characterizing soil properties. In Proceedings, Uncertainty ’96. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Va. Geotechnical special publication no. 58, vol 1, pp 49–75
Li KS, Lumb P (1974) Probabilistic design of slopes. Can Geotech J 24:520–535
Matsuo M (1976) Reliability in embankment design. M.I.T. Department of Civil Engineering Research Report R 76–33. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Matsuo M, Kuroda K (1974) Probabilistic approach to design of embankments. Soil Found 14(2):1–17
Park SK, Miller KW (1969) Random number generators: good ones hard to find. Commun ACM 31:1192–1201
Park H, West TR (2001) Development of a probabilistic approach for rock wedge failure. J Eng Geol 59:233–251
Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP (1992) Numerical recipes in Fortran: the art of scientific computation. Cambridge university press, Cambridge
Rocscience Inc (2003) Slide, 2D Limit equilibrium slope stability for soil and rock slopes, user guide
Rosenblueth E (1975) Point estimates for probability moments. Proc Natl Acad Sci Math 72(10):3812–3814
Tang WH, Yucemen MS, Ang AHS (1976) Probability-based short tem design of slopes. Can Geotech J 13(3):201–215
Tobutt DC (1982) Monte Carlo simulation methods for slope stability. Comput Geosci 8(2):199–208
Venmarcke EH (1977) Reliability of earth slopes. J Geotech Eng Div ASCE 103(11):1227–1246
Wolff TF (1985) Analysis and design of embankment dam slopes: a probabilistic approach. Ph.D. thesis, Purdue University, West Lafayette
Wu TH, Kraft LM (1970) Safety analysis of slopes. J Soil Mech Found Div ASCE 96(2):609–630
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
The paper is Dedicated to Ali Sharifzadeh who lost his life in a tragic car accident during the preparation of this research work.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Abbaszadeh, M., Shahriar, K., Sharifzadeh, M. et al. Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis Applied to Slope Stability: A Case Study From Sungun Copper Mine. Geotech Geol Eng 29, 581–596 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-011-9405-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-011-9405-1