Abstract
The policy of “leave early or stay and defend”, often shortened to the “stay or go” policy, has been the subject of critical review in the Royal Commission that followed the recent disastrous bushfires in Victoria, Australia. The need for people to evacuate or stay and defend their property and protect themselves is a critical life safety decision for many people on days of high bushfire activity. Some limited research has been undertaken into this individual decision making in bushfires. Other fields of emergency management also require people to make similar decisions as to whether to evacuate or stay in a “defend in place” situation. This paper examines research into “stay or go” strategies and decision making performance for high rise buildings, looking for common factors that may inform the bushfire situation and potential reforms for policy. Similarly, research into Hurricane Katrina and the failures to evacuate when mandated provide further insight into factors which can affect or postpone decision making. A number of common improvements related to emergency preparedness, situation awareness and trusted communication systems emerge in all these fields. However, this paper also suggests that this decision making in bushfires is more complex that just two simple options of “stay or go”. A greater understanding of group behavior and socio-cultural factors and their impact on personal decision making is required if more effective emergency management is to occur in the bushfire domain.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Teague, B., McLeod, R., & Pascoe, S. (2010). 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission: Final Report. Melbourne: State Government of Victoria.
Stephens, N., Hamedani, M.Y., Markus, H.R., Bergsieker, H.B., Eloul, L. (2009) Why did they ‘choose’ to stay—perspective of hurricane katrina observers and survivors. Psychol Sci 3(2):20–24
Averill J, Peacock R, Kuligowski E, Reneke R, Mileti D, Grove, Nelson H, Proulx G (2009) Federal investigation of the evacuation of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. In: 4th international symposium on human behaviour in fire—conference proceedings, 13–15 July 2009. Interscience Communications, Cambridge
Gershon R (2009) The World Trade Center evacuation study: factors associated with evacuation time and injury. In: 4th international symposium on human behaviour in fire—conference proceedings, 13–15 July 2009. Interscience Communications, Cambridge
Galea E, Hulse L, Day R, Siddiqui A, Sharp G (2009) The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: an overview of the methodologies employed and some analysis relating to fatigue, stair travel speeds, and occupant response. In: 4th international symposium on human behaviour in fire—conference proceedings, 13–15 July 2009. Interscience Communications, Cambridge
Proulx G (2002) The pros and cons of protect-in-place. In: Fire Australia conference, Brisbane
Barber DJ (2009) Strategies for occupant response to fire in high rise residential buildings. B. Lee Scholarship Report, Fire Protection Association, Australia, April 2009
Bryan, J.L., “Human Behaviour and Fire”, Fire Protection Handbook, Section 7, Chapter 1, 17th Edition, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, 1991
Loh E (2007) Evacuation powers of emergency workers and emergency service organizations in Australia. Aust J Emerg Manag 22(4)
Rush J, Doyle R, Richards M, Nichols L (2009) Submissions of counsel assisting the 2009 Victorian bushfires royal commission, June 2009
Country Fire Authority (CFA) (2006) Advice to community before and during wildfire: a guide for CFA personnel, Victoria
Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (2009) Interim report, August 2009
Ellis S, Kanowski P, Whelan R (2004) National enquiry on bushfire mitigation and management (COAG report). Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra
Bushfire CRC (2009) Victorian 2009 bushfire—research response. Interim Report, Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre, Melbourne, June 2009
Bushfire CRC (2010) Victorian 2009 bushfire research response—household mail survey, January 2010
Smith E, Rebori M (2001) Factors affecting property owner decisions about defensible space. In: Forestry extension—assisting forest owner, farmer, and stakeholder decision making. Proceedings of the international union of forestry research organizations symposium, October 29–November 2, 2001, Lorne, Australia, pp 404–408
Gwynne S, Kulogowski E, Nilson D (2010) Representing Egress behavior in engineering terms. In: Proceedings of the 8th international conference on performance based codes and safety design methods. Lund University, Sweden, 16–18 June 2010, SFPE, 2010
Pauls J (2008) Performance of means of egress: conducting the research needed to establish realistic expectations. In: Proceedings of the 7th international conference on performance based codes and safety design methods, Auckland, New Zealand, 16–18 April 2008, SFPE, 2008
Bukowski R (2008) Emergency egress from buildings. In: Proceedings of the 7th international conference on performance based codes and safety design methods, Auckland, New Zealand, 16–18 April 2008, SFPE, 2008
Proulx,G., “Evacuation Time”, Chapter 12, Section 3, SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 4th Edition, NFPA Quincy, MA, 2009
Human Behaviour in Fire (2009) In: Proceedings of the 4th international symposium on human behaviour in fire, 13–15 July 2009. Interscience Communications, Cambridge
Proulx G (1996) Critical factors in high-rise evacuations. Fire Prevention, No. 291, July/August 1996, Borehamwood, UK, pp 24–27
MacDonald JN (1985) Non evacuation in compartmented fire resistive buildings can save lives and makes sense. In: Proceedings of the international conference on building use and safety technology
Building code of Australia (2010) Australian Building Codes Board, Canberra
Gheytanchi, A., Joseph, L., Gierlach, E., Kimpara, S., Housley, J., Franco, Z. E., et al. (2007). “The dirty dozen: Twelve failures of the Hurricane Katrina response and how psychology can help”. American Psychologist, 62(2), 118-130.
United States Congress (2006). A failure of initiative: Final report of the select bipartisan committee to investigate the preparation for and response to Hurricane Katrina. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.
Johnson PF, Johnson CE, Sutherland C (2010) Protecting our assets—does that affect our personal safety decisions. In: Fire Australia conference, Gold Coast, November 2010
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Johnson, P.F., Johnson, C.E. & Sutherland, C. Stay or Go? Human Behavior and Decision Making in Bushfires and Other Emergencies. Fire Technol 48, 137–153 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-011-0213-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-011-0213-1