Asia-Pacific Financial Markets

, Volume 12, Issue 4, pp 307–332 | Cite as

Dynamical analysis of corporate bonds based on the yield spread term-quality surface

  • Tomoaki Shouda


Our aim of this research is to propose a model which estimates implied relative credit reliability from the yield spread of defaultable bonds and evaluates their spread risk. We introduce “yield spread term-quality surface” (YSTQS) which is defined on the space of duration and credit reliability of the issuers, and express their yield spread. First, we review the general pricing theorem of defaultable bonds with unpredictable recovery in the no-arbitrage context based on the external hazard rates. Second, we show that the dynamics of state variables determine the shape of the YSTQS, and they drive the YSTQS if the loss-adjusted hazard rates are described by a function of them. Finally, we show an empirical analysis of our model with daily yield spread, duration, and the credit ratings of corporate bonds.


Default risk Hazard rate Yield spread term-quality surface Credit quality Spread risk Markov state variable No-arbitrage 

JEL classifications

C32 C33 C51 G33 


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The author thanks NAKAMURA Nobuhiro, associate professor of Hitotsubashi University, and NAKAGAWA Hidetoshi, associate professor of Tokyo Institute of Technology, for their accurate advises, as well as two anonymous referees for helpful and constructive comments. And we also thank Monique Jeanblanc, professor of Evry University, for stimulating discussions and insightful comments.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Investment Technology Institute Co., LtdTokyoJapan
  2. 2.Graduate School of International Corporate StrategyHitotsubashi UniversityTokyoJapan

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