Abstract
Previous research has analyzed the effect of migration on fertility, and a number of hypotheses have been developed: namely adaptation, socialization, selection, disruption and interrelation of events. Comparison among stayers in the origin countries, migrants and non-migrants in the destination country is essential to gain better understanding of the effects of migration on fertility. However, this joint comparison has been rarely conducted. We sought to fill this gap and analyze migrants’ fertility in Italy. By merging different data sources for the first time, we were able to compare our target group of migrant women, respectively, born in Albania, Morocco and Ukraine with both Italian non-migrants and stayers in the country of origin. Considering the first three orders of births, multi-process hazard models were estimated in order to provide a more exhaustive and diversified scenario and to test the existing hypotheses. The results show that there is no single model of fertility for migrants in Italy. In addition, some hypotheses provide a better explanation of the fertility behavior than others do. Among women from Morocco, the socialization hypothesis tends to prevail, whereas Albanians’ fertility is mostly explained in terms of adaptation. Disruption emerged as the main mechanism able to explain the fertility of migrants from Ukraine, and a clear interrelation between fertility and migration is apparent for women from Albania and Morocco, but only for the first birth.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
All the dates were computed on a monthly scale in century month code (CMC), i.e. number of months since January 1900. In the SCIF dataset, the dates at birth of women and their children are not available and they were estimated using the information on the woman’s age at interview, the woman’s age at childbirth, and the date of the interview. This caused an inaccuracy in the episode duration. In other words, there is no single moment, but a “window” within which the event occurred. In our analysis, the uncertainty in the event date is accounted for by the two duration variables: the lower and the upper bounds of event windows (see, Lillard and Panis 2003).
Through a piecewise linear spline specification, the parameter estimates for the baseline log-hazard are slopes for linear splines over user-defined periods. With sufficient nodes (bend points), piecewise linear-specification can efficiently capture any pattern in the data (Lillard and Panis 2003).
As an additional robustness check, we relaxed the normality assumption in favor of a finite mixture distribution. The results (available on request) largely confirmed those reported in this article.
Education was considered as the number of years of attendance to achieve the highest level of education at the time of the interview. Given the marked heterogeneity among countries, we considered the years of education standardized according to the country of origin. Thus, considering four main groups, i.e. non-migrants in Italy, women born in Albania (living both in Italy and Albania), women born in Morocco, and women born in Ukraine, the standardized level of education was computed as follows: (number of years of schooling—mean of the group)/standard deviation of the same groups. In order to relax the assumption of a linear relationship between education and the likelihood of having a j-th childbirth, a quadratic term was also included in the models. By introducing this variable in the models, we assumed that those who achieve higher levels of education are, from a very early age, oriented toward accomplishing them (see e.g. Bratti and Tatsiramos 2011; Kravdal 2000). However, in this case the estimates may have been confounded by reverse causality, given that childbearing may have affected a woman’s interest in, and opportunities for, further education, thus entailing underestimation of the true causal effect (Kravdal 2004, 2007; Hoem and Kreyenfeld 2006). For example, the original education goals may be hindered by an unplanned childbirth and revised upwards in the case of unexpected childlessness (Kravdal 2001). Taking cognizance of this factor, we successfully checked the robustness of our results even when this variable was dropped from the models. However, we preferred to include in our models the education at the interview being one of the few variables at our disposal in order to (partially) take into account selection bias among migrants.
The questionnaire included the following question “What were the main reasons that led you to leave your origin country?” Among all the possible answers, we selected those related to family reasons (migrated for marriage/cohabitation/family reunification) and those related to employment and living conditions (lack of/difficulty in finding a job in the origin country; to earn higher wages; improve the quality of life). All the other possible answers (study, persecutions, war/conflicts, seeking new experiences, other reasons) were recoded as “Other.” The three, not mutually exclusive, resulting categories (work, family, other) were treated as three separate dummy variables.
The hazard was computed for all the three migrant groups without distinguishing by the country of origin. However, estimations not shown here demonstrated that the effect of the reason for migration is similar within each group.
References
Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., & McDonald, P. (2000). Fertility and multiculturalism: Immigrant fertility in Australia, 1977–1991. International Journal of Migration, 34(1), 215–242.
Adserà, A., & Ferrer, A. (2015). Immigrants and demography: Marriage, divorce, and fertility. In B. R. Chiswick & P. W. Miller (Eds.), Handbook of the economics of international migration (Vol. 1, pp. 315–374). North Holland: Elsevier.
Alba, R., & Nee, V. (1997). Rethinking assimilation theory for a new Era of immigration. International Migration Review, 31(4), 793–1192.
Alders, M. (2000). Cohort fertility of migrant women in the Netherlands. Developments in fertility of women born in Turkey, Morocco, Suriname, and the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba. In Paper for the BSPS-NVD-URU Conference, 31 August–1 September. Utrecht: Statistics Netherlands.
Ambrosini, M. (2008). Séparées et réunies: Familles migrantes et liens transnationaux. Revue Européenne des Migrations Internationales, 24(3), 79–106.
Andersson, G. (2004). Childbearing after migration: Fertility patterns of foreign-born women in Sweden. International Migration Review, 38(2), 747–774.
Andersson, G., & Scott, K. (2007). Childbearing dynamics of couples in an universalistic welfare state: The role of labor market status, country of origin, and gender. Demographic Research, 17(30), 897–938.
Baykara-Krumme, H., & Milewski, N. (2017). Fertility patterns among Turkish women in Turkey and Abroad: The effects of international mobility, migrant generation, and family background. European Journal of Population, 33(3), 409–436.
Beauchemin, C. (2014). A manifesto for quantitative multi-sited approaches to international migration. International Migration Review, 48(4), 921–938.
Bijwaard, G. (2010). Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands. Journal of Population Economics, 23(4), 1213–1247.
Billari, F.C., & Philipov, D. (2004). Education and the transition to motherhood: A comparative analysis of Western Europe. Vienna Institute of Demography. European Demographic Research, paper no. 3.
Blangiardo, G. C. (2016). Gli aspetti statistici. In F. Ismu (Ed.), Ventunesimo Rapporto sulle migrazioni. Anno 2015 (pp. 45–60). FrancoAngeli: Milano.
Blossfeld, H. P., & Huinink, J. (1991). Human capital investments or norms of role transition? How women’s schooling and career affect the process of family formation. The American Journal of Sociology, 97, 143–168.
Bonifazi, C. (2007). L’immigrazione straniera in Italia. Bologna: Il Mulino, Studi e Ricerche.
Bonifazi, C. (2013). L’ Italia delle migrazioni. Bologna: Il Mulino.
Bonizzoni, P. (2007). Famiglie transnazionali e ricongiunte: Per un approfondimento nello studio delle famiglie migranti. Mondi Migranti, 2, 91–108.
Borjas, G. J. (1987). Self-selection and the earnings of immigrants. American Economic Review, 77, 531–553.
Borjas, G. J. (1991). Immigration and self-selection. In J. M. Abowd (Ed.), Immigration, trade, and the labor market (pp. 29–76). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Bratti, M., & Tatsiramos, K. (2011). The effect of delaying motherhood on the second childbirth in Europe. Journal of Population Economics, 25(1), 291–321.
Carling, J. (2005). Gender dimensions of international migration. Global Migration Perspectives, 35, 1–26.
Carlson, E. D. (1985). The impact of international migration upon timing of marriage and childbearing. Demography, 22(1), 61–72.
Carter, M. (2000). Fertility of Mexican immigrant women in the US: A closer look. Social Science Quarterly, 81(4), 1073–1086.
Choi, K. (2014). Fertility in the context of Mexican migration to the United States. Demographic Research, 30(24), 703–738.
Clark, R. L., Glick, J. E., & Bures, R. M. (2009). Immigrant families over the life course. Research directions and needs. Journal of Family Issues, 30, 852–872.
Coleman, D. A. (1994). Trends in fertility and intermarriage among immigrant populations in Western Europe as measures of integration. Journal of Biosocial Science, 26(1), 107–136.
Cooke, T. (2008). Migration in a family way. Population, Space and Place, 14(4), 255–265.
Courgeau, D. (1989). Family formation and urbanization. Population: An English Selection, 44(1), 123–146.
de Valk, H., & Milewski, N. (2011). Family Life transitions of the second generation. Advances in Life Course Research, 16(4), 145–151.
Feliciano, C. (2005). Does selective migration matter? Gaining ethnic disparities in educational attainment among immigrants’ children. International Migration Review, 39(4), 841–871.
Ford, K. (1990). Duration of residence in the United States and the fertility of U.S. immigrants. International Migration Review, 24(1), 34–68.
Gabrielli, G., Paterno, A., & Strozza, S. (2007). Characteristics and demographic behaviour of immigrants in different south-European contexts. Proceeding of the International Conference on Migration and Development (pp. 336–368). Moscow: Lomonosov University.
Gabrielli, G., Terzera, L., Paterno, A., & Strozza, S. (2019). Histories of couple formation and migration: The case of foreigners in Lombardy, Italy. Journal of Family Issues, 40(9), 1107–1125.
Glick, J. E. (2010). Connecting complex processes: A decade of research on immigrant families. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72(3), 498–515.
Goldscheider, F. K., & Waite, L. J. (1986). Sex differences in the entry into marriage. American Journal of Sociology, 92(1), 1–19.
Goldstein, S., & Goldstein, A. (1984). Inter-relations between migration and fertility: Their significance for urbanisation in Malaysia. Habitat International, 8(1), 93–103.
González-Ferrer, A., Castro-Martín, T., Kraus, E. K., & Eremenko, T. (2017). Childbearing patterns among immigrant women and their daughters in Spain: Over-adaptation or structural constraints? Demographic Research, 37(19), 599–634.
González-Ferrer, A., Hannemann, T., & Castro-Martín, T. (2016). Partnership formation and dissolution among immigrants in the Spanish context. Demographic Research, 35(1), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.1.
Gordon, M. (1964). Assimilation in American life. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hakim, C. (2000). Work-lifestyle choices in the 21st century: Preference theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Hakim, C. (2003). A new approach to explaining fertility patterns: Preference theories. Population and Development Review, 29(3), 349–374.
Hill, L., & Johnson, H. (2004). Fertility changes among immigrants: Generations, neighborhoods, and personal characteristics. Social Science Quarterly, 85(3), 811–826.
Hiller, H. H., & McCaig, K. S. (2007). Reassessing the role of partnered women in migration decision-making and migration outcomes. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 24(3), 457–472.
Hoem, J. (1986). The impact of education on modern family-union initiation. European Journal of Population, 2, 113–133.
Hoem, J. M. (2014). The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another. Population Studies, 68(2), 151–159.
Hoem, J. M., & Kreyenfeld, M. (2006). Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Demographic Research, 15(17), 485–498.
Hoem, J., & Nedoluzhko, L. (2016). The dangers of using ‘negative durations’ to estimate pre- and post-migration fertility. Population Studies, 70(3), 359–363.
Impicciatore, R., & Dalla Zuanna, G. (2017). The impact of education on fertility in Italy. Changes across cohorts and south–north differences. Quality and Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 51(5), 2293–2317.
Istat. (2011). Rapporto Annuale. La situazione del Paese nel 2010. Rome: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica.
Istat. (2016). Le trasformazioni demografiche e sociali: Una lettura per generazione. Rapporto annuale 2016 – La situazione del Paese (pp. 39–102). Istat: Roma.
Kahn, J. R. (1988). Immigrant selectivity and fertility adaptation in the United States. Social Forces, 67(1), 108–128.
Kohler, H.-P., & Rodgers, J. L. (2003). Education, fertility, and heritability: Explaining a paradox. In K. W. Wachter & R. Bulatao (Eds.), Offspring. Human fertility behaviour in biodemographic perspective. Washington, DC : National Academic Press.
Kohler, H.-P., Rodgers, J. L., & Christensen, K. (1999). Is fertility behaviour in our genes? Findings from a Danish twin study. Population and Development Review, 25, 253–288.
Kravdal, Ø. (2001). The high fertility of college educated women in Norway: An artefact of the separate modelling of each parity transition. Demographic Research, 5(6), 187–216.
Kravdal, Ø. (2002). Is the previously reported increase in second- and higher-order birth rates in Norway and Sweden from the mid-1970s real or a result of inadequate estimation methods? Demographic Research, 6(9), 241–262.
Kravdal, Ø. (2007). Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues. Demographic Research, 17(9), 211–246.
Kulu, H. (2005). Migration and fertility: Competing hypotheses re-examined. European Journal of Population, 21, 51–87.
Kulu, H. (2006). Fertility of internal migrants: Comparison between Austria and Poland. Population, Space and Place, 12, 147–170.
Kulu, H., & González-Ferrer, A. (2014). Family dynamics among immigrants and their descendants in Europe: Current research and opportunities. European Journal of Population, 30(4), 411–435.
Kulu, H., & Milewski, N. (2007). Family change and migration in the life course: An introduction. Demographic Research, 17, 567–590.
Kulu, H., & Steele, F. (2013). Interrelationships between childbearing and housing transitions in the family life course. Demography, 50(5), 1687–1714.
Kulu, H., & Vikat, A. (2007). Fertility differences by housing type: The effect of housing conditions or of selective moves? Demographic Research, 17(26), 775–802.
Landale, N. S. (1997). Immigration and the family: An overview. In A. Booth, A. C. Crouter, & N. S. Landale (Eds.), Immigration and the family: Research and policy on US immigrants (pp. 281–293). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Lillard, L. A. (1993). Simultaneous equations for hazards: Marriage duration and fertility timing. Journal of Econometrics, 56(1–2), 189–217.
Lillard, L. A., & Panis, C. W. A. (2003). AML Multilevel Multiprocess Statistical Software, Release 2.0. EconWare, Los Angeles.
Lindstrom, D. P., & Giorguli Saucedo, S. (2007). The interrelationship of fertility, family maintenance and Mexico-U.S. migration. Demographic Research, 17(28), 821–858.
Lübke, C. (2015). How migration affects the timing of childbearing: The transition to a first birth among polish women in Britain. European Journal of Population, 31(1), 1–20.
Maffioli, D., Paterno, A., & Gabrielli, G. (2012). Transnational couples in Italy: Characteristics of partners and fertility behavior. In D. S. Kim (Ed.), Cross-border marriage: Global trends and diversity (pp. 279–319). Seoul: Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs.
Mayer, J., & Riphahn, R. T. (2000). Fertility assimilation if immigrants: Evidence from count data models. Journal of Population Economics, 13, 241–261.
Milewski, N. (2007). First child of immigrant workers and their descendants in West Germany: Interrelation of events, disruption, or adaptation? Demographic Research, 17(29), 859–896.
Mulder, C. H., & Wagner, M. (1993). Migration and marriage in the life course: A method for studying synchronized events. European Journal of Population, 9(1), 55–76.
Mussino, E., Gabrielli, G., Paterno, A., Strozza, S., & Terzera, L. (2015). Motherhood of foreign women in Lombardy: Testing the effects of migration by citizenship. Demographic Research, 33(23), 653–664.
Mussino, E., & Strozza, S. (2012). Does citizenship still matter? Second birth risks of resident foreigners in Italy. European Journal of Population, 28(3), 269–302.
Nedoluzhko, L., & Andersson, G. (2007). Migration and first-time parenthood: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan. Demographic Research, 17(25), 741–774.
Olivito, E. (Ed.). (2016). Gender and migration in Italy: A multilayered perspective. New York: Routledge.
Ortensi, L. E. (2015). Engendering the fertility-migration nexus: The role of women’s migratory patterns in the analysis of fertility after migration. Demographic Research, 32(53), 1435–1468.
Rossi, F., & Strozza, S. (2007). Mobilità della popolazione, immigrazione e presenza straniera. In GCD-SIS (Ed.), Rapporto sulla popolazione. L’Italia all’inizio del XXI secolo (pp. 111–137). Bologna: Il Mulino.
Simoni, M., & Zucca, G. (Eds.). (2007). Famiglie migranti. Primo rapporto nazionale sui processi d’integrazione sociale delle famiglie immigrate in Italia. Milan: FrancoAngeli.
Singley, S. G., & Landale, N. S. (1998). Incorporating origin and process in migration fertility frameworks: The case of Puerto Rican women. Social Forces, 76(4), 1437–1464.
Sobotka, T. (2008). The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe. Demographic Research, 19(9), 225–248.
Steele, F., Kallis, C., Goldstein, H., & Joshi, H. (2005). The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain. Demography, 42, 647–673.
Stephen, E. H., & Bean, F. D. (1992). Assimilation, disruption and the fertility of Mexican-origin women in the United States. International Migration Review, 26(1), 67–88.
Therborn, G. (2004). Between sex and power: Family in the world 1900–2000. London: Routledge.
Therborn, G. (Ed.). (2006). African families in a global context (research report no. 131). Uppsala: Nordiska Afrikainstitutet.
Toulemon, L. (2004). Fertility among immigrant women new data, a new approach. Population & Societies, 400, 1–4.
Upchurch, D. M., Lillard, L. A., & Panis, C. W. A. (2002). Nonmarital childbearing: Influences of education, marriage, and fertility. Demography, 39, 311–329.
Vitali, A., Billari, F. C., Prskawetz, A., & Testa, M.-R. (2009). Preference theory and low fertility: A comparative perspective. European Journal of Population, 25(4), 413–438.
Wimmer, A., & Glick-Schiller, N. (2003). Methodological nationalism, the social sciences, and the study of migration: An essay in historical epistemology. International Migration Review, 37(3), 576–610.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) and the Demographic and Health Surveys Program (DHS) for having granted access to the microdata used in the making of this paper. The results and any errors are entirely the responsibility of the authors alone.
Funding
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Impicciatore, R., Gabrielli, G. & Paterno, A. Migrants’ Fertility in Italy: A Comparison Between Origin and Destination. Eur J Population 36, 799–825 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09553-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09553-w