Review of Bayesian Philosophy of Science

Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann, Bayesian Philosophy of Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2019, ISBN 9,780,199,672,110, GBP 60,00.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Another somewhat unusual methodological feature of the book is the occasional use of computer modeling.
Here I will only review one of two responses discussed by S & H.
I should add that addressing this problem is not the main concern in Variation 12.
It is sometimes thought that imaging (Lewis 1976) is the counterfactual counterpart to conditionalization, but imaging is not going to do what we need it to here. Imaging deals with the case where we are updating p(H) on counterfactual evidence E. But the case we are interested in here is how to update p(H|M) (i.e. a counterfactual degree of belief in H given M) on actual evidence E.
Multiple influential textbooks adopt this viewpoint, including Gelman et al. (2013), and (to some extent) Bernardo and Smith (2000).

Bernardo, J. M., & Smith, A. F. M. (2000). Bayesian theory. Wiley.
Book Google Scholar
Fahrbach, L. (2011). How the growth of science ends theory change. Synthese, 180(2), 139–155.
Article Google Scholar
Forster, M., & Sober, E. (1994). How to tell when simpler, more unified, or less Ad Hoc theories will provide more accurate predictions. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 45(1), 1–35.
Article Google Scholar
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A., & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian data analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press.
Book Google Scholar
Glymour, C. (1980). Theory and evidence. Princeton University Press.
Google Scholar
Laudan, L. (1981). A confutation of convergent realism. Philosophy of Science, 48(1), 19–49.
Article Google Scholar
Lewis, D. (1976). Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philosophical Review, 85(3), 297–315.
Article Google Scholar
Mayo, D. (1996). Error and the growth of experimental knowledge. University of Chicago Press.
Book Google Scholar
Williams, P. M. (1980). Bayesian Conditionalisation and the Principle of Minimum Information. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 31(2), 131–144.
Article Google Scholar

Philosophy Programme, School of Humanities, Nanyang Technological University, 48 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639818, Singapore
Olav Benjamin Vassend

Authors

Olav Benjamin Vassend
View author publications
You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Vassend, O.B. Review of Bayesian Philosophy of Science. Erkenn (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-021-00431-8