, Volume 61, Issue 2–3, pp 415–428 | Cite as

Lotteries And Contexts

  • Peter Baumann


There are many ordinary propositions we think we know. Almost every ordinary proposition entails some “lottery proposition” which we think we do not know but to which we assign a high probability of being true (for instance:“I will never be a multi-millionaire” entails “I will not win this lottery”). How is this possible – given that some closure principle is true? This problem, also known as “the Lottery puzzle”, has recently provoked a lot of discussion. In this paper I discuss one of the most promising answers to the problem: Stewart Cohen’s contextualist solution, which is based on ideas about the salience of chances of error. After presenting some objections to it I sketch an alternative solution which is still contextualist in spirit.


High Probability Alternative Solution Closure Principle Lottery Proposition Contextualist Solution 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of PhilosophyUniversity of AberdeenAberdeenUK

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