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Electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle estimation in Malaysia 2040

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Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the number of electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) as well as end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) generated until 2040. A system dynamics modelling method was used with integrated population expandable income and vehicle price reduction, simulated through alternative policy application scenarios. It is estimated that passenger vehicle market will be nearing saturation point in 2030 at 12 million active vehicles, while half a million ELVs are also projected to be generated in that year. In 2040, HEV is estimated to be 1.43 million units, while EV is estimated to be 43,000 units. This research also concludes that by reducing vehicle ownership tax, adapting mandatory inspection and improving emission regulation, HEV and EV can be increased by an additional 70%. The result from this study is expected to assist future research in future transportation-related pollution estimation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Majlis Amanah Rakyat (MARA Malaysia) for providing financial support for this project. The funder has neither conflict of interest nor any influence over any stage of this manuscript production. Author also appreciate all the input, comments, questions and interest shown by all four reviewers and Mr Robert Macnee for his assistance in this manuscript language improvement.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0871, Japan

    Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai

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  1. Muhammad Azmi
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  2. Akihiro Tokai
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Muhammad Azmi.

Appendices

Appendix 1

See Table 6.

Table 6 Annual growth of Malaysian population (%)
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Appendix 2

See Table 7.

Table 7 PV age distribution in 2012, sourced from anonymous insurance agency for CV, and HEV and EV age distribution
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Azmi, M., Tokai, A. Electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle estimation in Malaysia 2040. Environ Syst Decis 37, 451–464 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-017-9647-4

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