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Forecast for the use of alternative fuels in aviation under environmental constraints and volatile market conditions

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Abstract

In a context of volatility in the oil price and with the impact of fossil fuels on climate change, the sustainable growth of the aviation is conditioned by the environment, economy and technical efficiency. In order to overcome these issues, new alternative fuels and biofuels could be an alternative to established technologies. In this study, a dynamical competition model for aviation fuel substitution has been developed. Investment and market factors are modeled by the Lotka–Volterra dynamical system for the substitution of fossil by alternative fuels. The model calculates the dynamics of Jet A-1, gas-to-liquid (GtL)/coal-to-liquid (CtL) and biomass-to-liquid (BtL) market shares up to the year 2030. In particular, the model looks at the use of carbon capture sequestration for GtL/CtL and the indirect land use change for BtL. Three main scenarios (high/low environmental incentives and business as usual) based on input data provided by the partners of the FP7 Alfa-Bird Project (2012) consortium were developed in 2012, and according to these scenarios, alternative fuels appeared to be competitive in the near term. Current collapse in oil prices, however, removes one of the key drivers that supported alternative fuel development in recent years: energy scarcity and security concerns, and as a consequence, it delays in this way the competitiveness of alternative fuels with respect to Jet A-1. This has been quantified in the present paper, and the respective conclusions were drawn.

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Notes

  1. Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems.

Abbreviations

BAU:

Business as usual

BtL:

Biomass to liquid

CCS:

Carbon capture sequestration

cEF-D:

Centralized entrained flow gasification

CSR:

Corporate social responsibility

CtL:

Coal to liquid

DALY:

Disability-adjusted life years

DS:

Dry substance

ETS:

Emission trading system

FAO:

Food price index

FSJF:

Fully synthetic jet fuel

F–T:

Fischer–Tropsch

GDP:

Gross domestic product

GHG:

Greenhouse gas

GLOBIOM:

Model of the global forest, agriculture and biomass sectors

GtL:

Gas to liquid

iLUC:

Indirect land use change

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel for climate change

JRC:

Join research center

LCA:

Life cycle assessment

LCI:

Life cycle inventory

MCDM:

Multi-criteria decision making

PAF:

Potentially affected fraction

PDF:

Potentially disappeared fraction

POLES:

Prospective outlook on long-term energy systems

SEA:

Socioeconomic analysis

TtW:

Tank to wake

Toe:

Tons oil equivalent with 42.6 MJ/kg

WtT:

Well to tank

WtW:

Well to wake

CAPEx:

Capital expenditures, e.g., cost of investment in fixed assets

ICAO:

International Civil Aviation Organization

GDP:

Gross domestic product

HRJ:

Hydroprocessed renewable jet

HEFA:

Hydrotreated esters and fatty acids

SWAFEA:

Sustainable way for alternative fuels and energy for aviation

Alfa-Bird:

Alternative fuels and biofuels for aircraft development

DREAM:

ValiDation of Radical Engine Architecture systeMs

CFC:

Chlorofluorocarbons

LUC:

Land use change

LCT:

Life cycle thinking

MJ:

MegaJoule

RED:

Renewable energy directive

DLR:

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt

IPCC:

Intergovermental panel climate change

HC:

High case

LC:

Low cae

LVC:

Lotka–Volterra competition

OPEX:

Operating expense

MMBTU:

Million British thermal units

POLES:

Prospective outlook on long-term energy systems

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies – R-Tech, Haus der Wirtschaft, Willi-Bleicher-Str. 19, 70174, Stuttgart, Germany

    Aleksandar S. Jovanović & Flor A. Quintero

  2. European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Haus der Wirtschaft, Willi-Bleicher-Str.19, 70174, Stuttgart, Germany

    Aleksandar S. Jovanović & P. Klimek

  3. Section for Science of Complex Systems, Medical University of Vienna, Spitalgasse 23, 1090, Vienna, Austria

    P. Klimek

Authors
  1. Aleksandar S. Jovanović
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  2. P. Klimek
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  3. Flor A. Quintero
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Correspondence to Aleksandar S. Jovanović.

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Jovanović, A.S., Klimek, P. & Quintero, F.A. Forecast for the use of alternative fuels in aviation under environmental constraints and volatile market conditions. Environ Syst Decis 35, 521–531 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-015-9573-2

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