Abstract
A topic of recent interest is energy-efficient houses. In the last twenty years, the US market has witnessed growth in the adoption of energy efficiency via various building technologies, design schemes, and eco-labels by developers, homebuilders, and homebuyers. Although housing and real estate scholars have begun explorations of the factors associated with the diffusion of energy efficiency, the subject has yet to be explored from the perspective of a critical stakeholder—the mortgage lender. This paper distinguishes itself from the extant literature in several ways. First, using a diffusion of innovation intellectual framework, the authors explore the role of the lender as an innovation gatekeeper. Second, as a review article, the authors summarize several key papers from the underwriting, credit scoring, and finance literature to help frame a number of market frictions that could mute further diffusion of energy efficiency in housing. Finally, the authors analyze these frictions and offer both market and public policy suggestions that may help overcome these frictions and increase opportunities for both private competitive advantage and market transparency.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
In this paper, the terms green, energy-efficient, and high-performance housing are equivalent and will be used to describe any new home in which technologies are installed that have the capacity to create operational efficiencies such as reduced energy consumption and reduced water consumption.
More efficient home could be framed as a less risky home in the context of volatile energy prices. However, low crude prices (such as 2014/2015) dampen the impact of locational efficiency for a home owner.
References
Administration EI (2010) Annual energy review. Washington
Adomatis SK (2010) Notes and issues-valuing high performance houses. Apprais J 78(2):195
Allcott H (2011) Social norms and energy conservation. J Public Econ 95(9):1082–1095
Amromin G, Paulson AL (2009) Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages. Econ Perspect 33(2):18–37
Aroul RR, Hansz JA (2011) The role of dual-pane windows and improvement age in explaining residential property values. J Sustain Real Estate 3(1):142–161
Avery RB, Bostic RW, Calem PS, Canner GB (1996) Credit risk, credit scoring, and the performance of home mortgages. Fed Res Bull 82:621
Bellotti T, Crook J (2009) Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis. J Oper Res Soc 60(12):1699–1707
Bhutta N, Dokko J, Shan H (2010) The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions. Division of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board
Bloom B, Nobe MC, Nobe MD (2011) Valuing green home designs: a study of energy star homes. J Sustain Real Estate 3(1):109–126
Brounen D, Kok N, Quigley JM (2011) Residential energy literacy and conservation. Chicago: 47th Annual AREUEA
Burt L, Goldstein DB, Leeds S. et al (2010) A path towards incorporating energy and transportation costs into mortgage underwriting: shifting to fact-based analysis. ACEEE Summer Study Energy Effic Build
Chesbrough H, Vanhaverbeke W, West J (2006) Open innovation: researching a new paradigm. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Choi C (2009) Removing market barriers to green development: principles and action projects to promote widespread adoption of green development practices. J Sustain Real Estate 1(1):107–138
Choi E (2010) Green on buildings: The effects of municipal policy on green building designations in america’s central cities. J Sustain Real Estate 2(1):1–21
Christensen CM, Anthony SD (2004) Seeing what’s next: using the theories of innovation to predict industry change. Harvard Business Press, Boston
Clauretie TM, Sirmans GS (2010) Real estate finance: theory and practice (with CD-ROM). Cengage Learning
Crook J, Banasik J (2012) Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour. Int J Forecast 28(1):145–160
Crook JN, Edelman DB, Thomas LC (2007) Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment. Eur J Oper Res 183(3):1447–1465
Dastrup SR, Graff Zivin J (2012) Understanding the solar home price premium: electricity generation and green social status. Eur Econ Rev 56(5):961–973
DeLisle JR (1984) Residential appraisal: a behavioral approach to energy efficiency. Apprais J 52:41–47
Deng Y, Quigley JM, Van Order R, Mac F (1996) Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: the costs of public subsidy. Reg Sci Urban Econ 26(3):263–285
Dermisi S, Mansour A, Worzala E (2012) Performance of leed-existing buildings before and after their certification. Presented at the 2012 meeting of the Real Estate Research Institute. Chicago, IL
Dermisi SV (2009) Effect of leed ratings and levels on office property assessed and market values. J Sustain Real Estate 1(1):23–47
Eichholtz P, Kok N, Quigley JM (2013) The economics of green building. Rev Econ Stat 95(1):50–63
Elul R, Souleles NS, Chomsisengphet S, Glennon D, Hunt R (2010) What“ triggers” mortgage default? The American Economic Review, 490–494
Friedrich K, Eldridge M, York D, Witte P, Kushler M (2009) Saving energy cost-effectively: a national review of the cost of energy saved through utility-sector energy efficiency programs. American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. September
Fuerst F, McAllister P (2009) An investigation of the effect of eco-labeling on office occupancy rates. J Sustain Real Estate 1(1):49–64
Fuerst F, McAllister P, van de Wetering J, Wyatt P (2011) Measuring the financial performance of green buildings in the uk commercial property market: Addressing the data issues. J Financ Manag Prop Constr 16(2):163–185
Goodwin KR (2011) The demand for green housing amenities. J Sustain Real Estate 3(1):127–141
Green RK, Wachter SM (2007) The housing finance revolution. The Blackwell companion to the economics of housing,The housing wealth of nations, pp 414–445
Greenhalgh C, Rogers M (2010) Innovation, intellectual property, and economic growth. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Harrison D, Seiler M (2011) The political economy of green office buildings. J Prop Invest Financ 29(4/5):551–565
Hayes S, Nadel S, Granda C, Hottel K (2011) What have we learned from energy efficiency financing programs? American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
Henley W et al (1997) Construction of a k-nearest-neighbour credit-scoring system. IMA J Manag Math 8(4):305–321
Howarth RB, Sanstad AH (1995) Discount rates and energy efficiency. Contemp Econ Policy 13(3):101–109
Jaffee DM, Wallace NE (2009) Market mechanisms for financing green real estate investments. Fisher Center Working Papers. University of California
Jennings BJ, Vugrin ED, Belasich DK (2013) Resilience certification for commercial buildings: a study of stakeholder perspectives. Environ Sys Decis 33(2):184–194
Kahn ME, Kok N (2012) The capitalization of green labels in the California housing market. Reg Sci Urban Econ 7(3)
Kats G, Menkin A, Dommu J, DeBold M (2011) Energy efficiency financing-models and strategies. prepared by Capital E for the Energy Foundation
Kaza N, Quercia RG, Tian C (2014) Home energy efficiency and mortgage risks. J Policy Dev Res 16(1):279
Koebel C, McCoy A (2006) Beyond first mover advantage: the characteristics, risks and advantages of second mover adoption in the home building industry. American real estate and urban economics association, Washington
Koebel CT (1999) Sustaining sustainability: innovation in housing and the built environment. J Urban Technol 6(3):75–94
Koebel CT (2008) Innovation in homebuilding and the future of housing. J Am Plan Assoc 74(1):45–58
Koebel CT, McCoy AP, Sanderford AR, Franck CT, Keefe M (2013). Modeling the diffusion of a green housing innovation: high efficiency windows. Virginia Center for Housing Research
Kok N, McGraw M, Quigley JM (2011) The diffusion of energy efficiency in building. Am Econ Rev 101(3):77–82
Kontokosta CE (2011) Greening the regulatory landscape: the spatial and temporal diffusion of green building policies in us cities. J Sustain Real Estate 3(1):68–90
Lützkendorf T, Lorenz DP (2006) Using an integrated performance approach in building assessment tools. Build Res Inf 34(4):334–356
Malik M, Thomas LC (2010) Modelling credit risk of portfolio of consumer loans. J Oper Res Soc 61(3):411–420
McCoy AP, Koebel CT, Sanderford A (2013) Narrowing the chasm: Agile patterns of adoption and diffusion of innovation in the us housing industry from 2000–2010. Tech. rep, Virginia Center for Housing Research
Miller N, Spivey J, Florance A (2008) Does green pay off? J Real Estate Portf Manag 14(4):385–400
Moore GA (1991) Crossing the chasm: marketing and selling high-tech products to mainstream consumers. HarperBusiness, New York
Muldavin SR (2010) Value beyond cost savings: how to underwrite sustainable properties. Green Building FC
Overstreet GA, Bradley EL, Kemp RS (1992) The flat-maximum effect and generic linear scoring models: a test. IMA J Manag Math 4 (1), 97–109. http://imaman.oxfordjournals.org/content/4/1/97.abstract
Pivo G (2013) The effect of sustainability features on mortgage default prediction and risk in multifamily rental housing. FannieMae
Pivo G, Fisher J (2009) Investment returns from responsible property investments: Energy efficient, transit-oriented and urban regeneration office properties in the us from 1998–2007. Responsible Property investing center, Boston College, University of Arizona, Benecki Center for real estate studies, and Indiana University, Working Paper WP-08-2, rev
Pivo G, Fisher JD (2010) Income, value, and returns in socially responsible office properties. J Real Estate Res 32(3):243–270
Pivo G, Fisher JD (2011) The walkability premium in commercial real estate investments. Real Estate Econ 39(2):185–219
Popescu D, Mladin EC, Boazu R, Bienert S (2009) Methodology for appraisal of real estate green value. Environ Eng Manag J (EEMJ) 8(3):601–606
Quercia RG, Pennington-Cross A, Tian CY (2011) Mortgage default risk and local unemployment. Tech. rep., Working Paper, center for community capital, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Quercia RG, Pennington-Cross A (2012) Mortgage default and prepayment risks among moderate-and low-income households. Real Estate Econ 40(s1):S159–S198
Quercia RG, Stegman MA (1992) Residential mortgage default: a review of the literature. J Hous Res 3(2):341–379
Rauterkus SY, Thrall GI, Hangen E (2010) Location efficiency and mortgage default. J Sustain Real Estate 2(1):117–141
Rogers EM (2010) Diffusion of innovations. Simon and Schuster, New York City
Runde TP, Thoyre S (2010) Integrating sustainability and green building into the appraisal process. J Sustain Real Estate 2(1):221–248
Safavian SR, Landgrebe D (1991) A survey of decision tree classifier methodology. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 21(3):660–674
Sanderford AR, Keefe M, McCoy AP, Koebel CT (2013) The diffusion of energy efficiency in housing. Tech. rep, Virginia Center for Housing Research
Schultz PW, Nolan JM, Cialdini RB, Goldstein NJ, Griskevicius V (2007) The constructive, destructive, and reconstructive power of social norms. Psychol Sci 18(5):429–434
Seager T, Collier Z, Linkov I, Lambert J (2013) Environmental sustainability, complex systems, and the disruptive imagination. Environ Syst Decis 33(2):181–183
Simons RA, Choi E, Simons DM (2009) The effect of state and city green policies on the market penetration of green commercial buildings. J Sustain Real Estate 1(1):139–166
Sklar S (2014) Perspective on multi-scale assets for clean energy technologies in buildings. Environ Syst Decis 34(2):323–325
Slaughter ES (1998) Models of construction innovation. J Constr Eng Manag 124(3):226–231
Slaughter S (1993) Innovation and learning during implementation: a comparison of user and manufacturer innovations. Res Policy 22(1):81–95
Straka JW (2000) A shift in the mortgage landscape: the 1990s move to automated credit evaluations. J Hous Res 11(2):207–232
Thomas LC, Edelman DB, Crook JN (2002) Credit scoring and its applications. Siam, Philadelphia
Van Order R (2007) Modeling the credit risk of mortgage loans: a primer. Stephen M. Ross Working Paper Series. University of Michigan
Von Hippel E (2005) Democratizing innovation. MIT press, Cambridge
West D (2000) Neural network credit scoring models. Comput Operat Res 27(11):1131–1152
Wiginton JC (1980) A note on the comparison of logit and discriminant models of consumer credit behavior. J Financ Quant Anal 15(03):757–770
Yezer AM (2010) A review of statistical problems in the measurement of mortgage market discrimination and credit risk. Research Institute for Housing America. Washington, DC
Yobas MB, Crook JN, Ross P (2000) Credit scoring using neural and evolutionary techniques. IMA J Manag Math 11(2):111–125
Zerkin AJ (2006) Mainstreaming high performance building in new york city: a comprehensive roadmap for removing the barriers. Technol Soc 28(1):137–155
Zhu H, Beling P, Overstreet G, (2001) A study in the combination of two consumer credit scores. J Operat Res Soc 52(9):974–980 [Special Issue: Credit Scoring and Data Mining (Sep., 2001)]
Zhu H, Beling P, Overstreet G (2002) A bayesian framework for the combination of classifier outputs. J Operat Res Soc 53(7):719–727
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sanderford, A.R., Overstreet, G.A., Beling, P.A. et al. Energy-efficient homes and mortgage risk: crossing the chasm at last?. Environ Syst Decis 35, 157–168 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-015-9535-8
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-015-9535-8