When decision-making processes fail: an argument for robust climate adaptation planning in the face of uncertainty

Abstract

Adverse climate-related pressures and shocks pose uncertain risks to communities and society at large. These uncertainties require strategies that will perform well regardless of circumstances, necessitating robust rather than optimal planning strategies. Robust planning requires reliable up-to-date information. The data available regarding regional risk, however, especially in developing countries, are often insecure, inadequate, or nonexistent. In addition to this, climate change poses deep uncertainty in when, where, and how extreme a given climate-related pressure or shock will occur. In order to include the full breadth of perspectives and consider all possible future scenarios, robust strategies require input from myriad affected stakeholders. Incorporating multiple perspectives, collecting and analyzing risk-related information and selecting a robust strategy, calls for substantial planning and management. When a pressure or shock occurs, without ex-ante action promoting best practices for resilience, governance structures often fail, leading to actions that may favor a single stakeholder agenda and avoidable losses. In contrast, this paper will provide a practical framework for collecting relevant information at the local level, using that information to analyze related risk, and creating robust strategies that incorporate and promote resilience.