Abstract
In the face of the urgent climate crisis compounded by the rapid expansion of the global tourism industry, this study employs the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to dissect the impacts of international tourist arrivals and economic growth on CO2 emissions reduction amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database covering the years 1995–2020, our analysis centers on five pivotal tourist destinations: France, Spain, the USA, China, and Italy. Our findings underscore the pandemic's divergent effects, with international tourist arrivals contributing less to CO2 emissions in all countries except China, where the correlation between arrivals and emissions remained largely unaltered. Moreover, our study identifies two distinct responses of CO2 emissions to tourism development across these nations, validating earlier predictions. These insights hold significant implications for policymaking in tourism development, emphasizing the necessity of tailored strategies to foster sustainable practices in the post-pandemic era. By shedding light on the intricate interplay between tourism dynamics, economic growth, and environmental sustainability, our research offers crucial guidance for policymakers striving to navigate the complexities of the contemporary tourism landscape in a manner that ensures long-term ecological resilience.





Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data included in this study are available upon reasonable request by contact with the corresponding author.
References
Adebayo, T. S., Akadiri, S. S., Asuzu, O. C., Pennap, N. H., & Sadiq-Bamgbopa, Y. (2023). Impact of tourist arrivals on environmental quality: A way towards environmental sustainability targets. Current Issues in Tourism, 26(6), 958–976. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2022.2045914
Akadiri, S. S., Lasisi, T. T., Uzuner, G., & Akadiri, A. C. (2020). Examining the causal impacts of tourism, globalization, economic growth and carbon emissions in tourism island territories: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4), 470–484. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1539067
Anser, M. K., Yousaf, Z., Awan, U., Nassani, A. A., Qazi Abro, M. M., & Zaman, K. (2020). Identifying the carbon emissions damage to international tourism: Turn a blind eye. Sustainability, 12, 1937. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051937
Arain, H., Han, L., Sharif, A., & Meo, M. S. (2020). Investigating the effect of inbound tourism on FDI: The importance of quantile estimations. Tourism Economics, 26(4), 682–703. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619859695
Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Elmi, Z., & Ranjbar, O. (2018). Re-testing prebisch-singer hypothesis: New evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test. Applied Economics, 50(4), 441–454. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1332751
Balli, E. (2021). The nexus between tourism, environmental degradation and economic growth. Ege Academic Review, 21(2), 149–161. https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.907436
Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Shahbaz, M., & Sinha, A. (2020). The effects of tourism and globalization over environmental degradation in developed countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 7130–7144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-07372-4
Bilen, M., Yilanci, V., & Eryüzlü, H. (2017). Tourism development and economic growth: A panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 27–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2015.1073231
Bressan, D. (2021). Carbon-dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere spikes to record level. Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbressan/2021/04/07/carbon-dioxide-spikes-to-record-level/?sh=6f60e594521f
Briassoulis, H. (2002). Sustainable tourism and the question of the commons. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(4), 1065–1085. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(02)00021-X
Buckley, R. (2021). Pandemic travel restrictions provide a test of net ecological effects of ecotourism and new research opportunities. Journal of Travel Research, 60(7), 1612–1614. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520947812
Chien, F., Zhang, Y., Sharif, A., Sadiq, M., & Hieu, M. V. (2023). Does air pollution affect the tourism industry in the USA? Evidence from the quantile autoregressive distributed lagged approach. Tourism Economics., 29(5), 1164–1180. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221097021
Churchill, S. A., Pan, L., & Paramati, S. R. (2022). Air pollution and tourism: Evidence from G20 Countries. Journal of Travel Research, 61(2), 223–234. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520977724
Cleveland, W. S. (1979). Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 829–836. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038
Eluwole, K. K., Saint Akadiri, S., Alola, A. A., & Etokakpan, M. U. (2020). Does the interaction between growth determinants a drive for global environmental sustainability? Evidence from world top 10 pollutant emissions countries. Science of the Total Environment, 705, 135972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135972
Eyuboglu, S., & Eyuboglu, K. (2020). Tourism development and economic growth: An asymmetric panel causality test. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(6), 659–665. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1588863
Eyuboglu, K., & Uzar, U. (2020). The impact of tourism on CO2 emission in Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(13), 1631–1645. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1636006
Fang, Y., Yin, J., & Wu, B. (2018). Climate change and tourism: A scientometric analysis using CiteSpace. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(1), 108–126. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2017.1329310
Fethi, S., & Senyucel, E. (2020). The role of tourism development on CO2 emission reduction in an extended version of the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from top 50 tourist destination countries. Environment Development and Sustainability, 23, 1499–1524. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00633-0
Ghosh, S. (2022). Effects of tourism on carbon dioxide emissions, a panel causality analysis with new data sets. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 3884–3906. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01592-w
Gössling, S. (2013). National emissions from tourism: An overlooked policy challenge? Energy Policy, 59, 433–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.058
Granger, C.W., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego. Unpublished Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.1525/9780520339668-07
Gulistan, A., Tariq, Y. B., & Bashir, M. F. (2020). Dynamic relationship among economic growth, energy, trade openness, tourism, and environmental degradation: Fresh global evidence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 13477–13487. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07875-5
Guo, J., & Cai, X. (2023). Do transportation and tourism development really contribute to China’s economy? Evidence from renewable and non-renewable energy consumption. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25, 7189–7214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02373-9
Gyamfi, B. A., Bein, M. A., Adedoyin, F. F., & Bekun, F. V. (2022a). To what extent are pollutant emission intensified by international tourist arrivals? Starling evidence from G7 countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 7896–7917. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01765-7
Gyamfi, B. A., Bein, M. A., Adedoyin, F. F., & Bekun, F. (2022b). How does energy investment affect the energy utilization-growth-tourism nexus? Evidence from E7 Countries. Energy & Environment, 33(2), 354–376. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X21999752
Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447–456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
He, L., Zha, J., & Loo, H. (2020). How to improve tourism energy efficiency to achieve sustainable tourism: Evidence from China. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1564737
Hsiao, T. Y., Sung, P. L., Tsai, H. Y., & Wang, T. S. (2021). Establishing a model of low-carbon tour promotion for use by travel agencies from the perspective of shared value theory. Tourism Management Perspectives, 37, 100787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2020.100787
Isik, C., Ahmad, M., Pata, U. K., Ongan, S., Radulescu, M., Adedoyin, F. F., Bayraktaroğlu, E., Aydın, S., & Ongan, A. (2020). An evaluation of the tourism-ınduced environmental Kuznets curve (T-EKC) hypothesis: Evidence from G7 countries. Sustainability, 12(21), 9150. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219150
Kocak, E., Ulucak, R., & Ulucak, Z. S. (2020). The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emission: An advanced panel data estimation. Tourism Management Perspectives, 33, 100611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100611
Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
Koenker, R., & Xiao, Z. (2004). Unit root quantile autoregression inference. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99(467), 775–787. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214504000001114
Le, T., & Nguyen, C. (2021). The impact of tourism on carbon dioxide emissions: Insights from 95 countries. Applied Economics, 53(2), 235–261. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1804051
León, C. J., Arana, J. E., & Hernández, A. (2014). CO2 emissions and tourism in developed and less developed countries. Applied Economics Letters, 21(16), 1169–1173. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.916376
Lenzen, M., Sun, Y., Faturay, F., Ting, Y., Geschke, A., & Malik, A. (2018). The carbon footprint of global tourism. Nature Climate Change, 8, 522–528. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0192-z
Liu, Z., Lan, J., Chien, F., Sadiq, M., & Nawaz, M. (2022). Role of tourism development in environmental degradation A step towards emission reduction. Journal of Environmental Management, 303, 114078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114078
Min, J., Kung, H. H., & Chang, T. (2019). Testing the structural break of Taiwan inbound tourism markets. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 22(2), 117–130.
Min, J., Wang, M. C., & Chang, T. (2023). Revisiting the Taiwan tourism and economic growth nexus: The role of the impact of COVID-19 using Quantile on Quantile approach. Applied Economic Letters, 30(18), 2555–2559. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2099794
Mohapatra, S. (2018). Investigating the tourism and economic growth linkage: A panel causality analysis for the SAARC countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(6), 573–583. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1468345
Nagaj, R., & Žuromskaitře, B. (2021). Tourism in the Era of Covid-19 and its impact on the environment. Energies, 14(7), 2000. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14072000
Osorio, P., Cadarso, M. Á., Tobarra, M. Á., & García-Alaminos, Á. (2023). Carbon footprint of tourism in Spain: COVID-19 impact and a look forward to recovery. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2023(65), 303–318. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.03.003
Paramati, S. R., Alam, M. S., & Chen, C. (2017). The effects of tourism on economic growth and CO2 emissions: A comparison between developed and developing economies. Journal of Travel Research, 56(6), 712–724. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287516667848
Polas, M. R. H., Saha, R. K., & Tabash, M. I. (2022). How does tourist perception lead to tourist hesitation? Empirical evidence from Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 3659–3686. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01581-z
Razzaq, A., Fatima, T., & Murshed, M. (2023). Asymmetric effects of tourism development and green innovation on economic growth and carbon emissions in top 10 GDP countries. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 66(3), 471–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2021.1990029
Reivan-Ortiz, G. G., Cong, P. T., Wong, W. K., Ali, A., Thu, H. T. T., & Akhter, S. (2023). Role of geopolitical risk, currency fluctuation, and economic policy on tourist arrivals: Temporal analysis of BRICS economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 78339–78352. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27736-1
Roudi, S., Arasli, H., & Akadiri, S. (2018). New insights into an old issue-examining the influence of tourism on economic growth: Evidence from selected small island developing states. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(11), 1280–1300. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1431207
Salahodjaev, R., Sharipov, K., Rakhmanov, N., & Khabirov, D. (2022). Tourism, renewable energy and CO2 emissions: Evidence from Europe and Central Asia. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 13282–13293. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01993-x
Scott, D., & Gössling, S. (2022). A review of research into tourism and climate change - Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism and climate change. Annals of Tourism Research, 95, 103409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2022.103409
Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., & Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.12.006
Sharif, A., Ullah, S., Shahbaz, M., & Mahalik, M. K. (2021). Sustainable tourism development and globalization: Recent insights from the United States. Sustainable Development, 29(5), 957–973. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2187
Shi, H., Li, X., Zhang, H., Liu, X., Li, T., & Zhong, Z. (2020). Global difference in the relationships between tourism, economic growth, CO2 emissions, and primary energy consumption. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(9), 1122–1137. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1588864
Sim, N., & Zhou, H. T. (2015). Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quartiles. Journal of Banking and Finance, 55, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.01.013
Sohn, J. I., Alakshendra, A., Kim, H. J., Kim, K. H., & Kim, H. D. (2021). Understanding the new characteristics and development strategies of coastal tourism for post-COVID-19: A case study in Korea. Sustainability, 13, 7408. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137408
Stone, C. J. (1977). Consistent nonparametric regression. The Annals of Statistics, 5(4), 595–645. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343888
Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries. Energy Policy, 68, 458–464. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.004
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. (2021). The Nobel prize in physics 2021. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2021/summary/
Tian, X. L., Bélaïd, F., & Ahmad, N. (2021). Exploring the nexus between tourism development and environmental quality: Role of renewable energy consumption and Income. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 53–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.10.003
Union of Concerned Scientists. (2021). Each country’s share of CO2 emissions. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/each-countrys-share-co2-emissions
Usman, M., Yaseen, M. R., Makhdum, M. S. A., Kousar, R., & Jahanger, A. (2021). Modeling financial development, tourism, energy consumption, and environmental quality: Is there any discrepancy between developing and developed countries? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 58480–58501. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14837-y
Usman, M., Kousar, R., & Makhdum, M. S. A. (2020). The role of financial development, tourism, and energy utilization in environmental deficit: Evidence from 20 highest emitting economies. Environmental Science and Science and Pollution Research, 27, 42980–42995. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10197-1
Wang, Q. R., Mao, Z., Xian, L., & Liang, Z. (2019). A study on the coupling coordination between tourism and the low-carbon city. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(6), 550–562. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2019.1610002
Wang, C. M., & Wu, T. P. (2022). Does tourism promote or reduce environmental pollution? Evidence from major tourist arrival countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24, 3334–3335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01568-w
Weng, D., & Sun, W. (2023). Tourism development influence on environmental quality: How renewable energy use and income matter? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 87228–87241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28001-1
World Data. (2021). CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions. https://ourworldindata.org/co2
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2015). 2015 Travel & Tourism: Connecting global climate action. Executive summary. London: WTTC.
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2018). WTTC and UN climate change in new partnership to tackle climate change. https://www.preventionweb.net/news/wttc-and-un-climate-change-new-partnership-tackle-climate-change
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2021). WTTC reveals U.S. Travel & Tourism sector suffered loss of $766 billion in 2020. https://wttc.org/news-article/wttc-reveals-us-travel-tourism-sector-suffered-loss-of-766-billion-in-2020
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2022a). Enhancing resilience: To drive sustainability in destinations. https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2022/WTTCxICF-Enhancing_Resilience-Sustainable_Destinations.pdf?ver=2022-06-13-213556-557
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2022b). China’s Travel & Tourism sector set to recover by more than 60% this year, reveals WTTC. https://wttc.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=0OxlPyE11us%3D&portalid=0
World Tourism Organization (WTO). (2021a). Climate action. https://www.unwto.org/sustainable-development/climate-action
World Tourism Organization (WTO). (2021b). World tourism barometer. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/envir_e/unwto_barom21.pdf
World Tourism Organization (WTO). (2020). UNWTO World tourism barometer. https://doi.org/10.18111/wtobarometereng.2020.18.1.1
World Tourism Organization. (2019). Tourism’s carbon emissions measured in landmark report launched at COP 25. https://www.unwto.org/news/tourisms-carbon-emissions-measured-in-landmark-report-launched-at-cop25
World Tourism Organization. (2003). Climate change and tourism. https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284406326
Wu, T., Wu, H., Ye, G., Wu, X., & Pan, B. (2022). The contribution of international tourism development to economic growth in Chinese economy. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2022.2088773. in Press.
Yang, Y., & Guo, X. (2024). Characteristics and drivers of changes in the carbon footprint of urban tourism in the post-COVID-19 era: A case study of Xi’an. Journal of Cleaner Production, 434, 140015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140015
Zaman, K., Shahbaz, M., Loganathan, N., & Raza, S. A. (2016). Tourism development, energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries. Tourism Management, 54, 275–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.12.001
Zhang, J., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Tourism, economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China. Tourism Economics, 27(5), 1060–1080. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620918458
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) (Grant No. 111-2410-H-130-041-).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Jennifer Min, Mei-Chih Wang, and Tsangyao Chang. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Jennifer Min and Mei-Chih Wang, and all authors commented on the versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Min, J., Wang, MC. & Chang, T. Revisiting tourist arrivals, CO2 emissions and pandemic crisis links using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) approach. Environ Dev Sustain (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05197-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05197-x

