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Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought, future changes and possible drivers over Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, using SPI and SPEI

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Abstract

Drought is a global problem that affects particularly agricultural and water resources. The spatiotemporal drought characteristics and their possible drivers over Upper Awash Basin (UAB) were assessed in magnitude, duration, frequency, and intensity. Gridded data and a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) were used for historical projection. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 4- and 12-month timescales were used to compute the drought. The SPI 4-and 12-months indicate 1984, 1987, 2002, 2015, and 2016 years of dominant drought. Persistent dry events were observed in the west, northwestern, and some eastern parts of the study area in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Trend analysis of seasonal shows that a statistically significant (P < 0.05) increasing trend during the main cropping seasons and annual drought events were detected in almost all basin parts. Near future projections in the two (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios exhibited the continuation of drought up to 2030s and mid-2040s extreme and severe dryness, respectively. The seasonal and annual analysis projection indicates a decrease in dry events from 2050 onwards. The detected periodicity of dryness/wetness agreed with the negative/positive phase of SOI/ ENSO (Nino3.4) during Belg and the positive/negative phase during Kiremt and annual (SPI4/SPEI4). The possible driving forces of these drought events were land use/cover changes such as land degradation and urbanization. Global indices IOD, SOI, and ENSO (NINO3.4) are drivers that caused the seasonal droughts. These findings are useful for better preparedness priorities that suggest developing basin-wide targeted interventions.

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Notes

  1. https://sdsm.org.uk/software.html

  2. https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=pred-canesm2

  3. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/

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Acknowledgements

The first author is grateful to Haramaya University for financial support. The authors are also grateful to the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia for providing the required meteorological data used in this paper. Finally, the authors appreciate Dr. Fikru Abiko, Addis Ababa University, for supporting the data analysis tools.

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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box: 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Haftu Brhane Gebremichael & Gelana Amente Raba

  2. Center of Environmental Sciences, College of Natural and Computational Sciences Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Kassahun Ture Beketie & Gudina Legese Feyisa

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  1. Haftu Brhane Gebremichael
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  2. Gelana Amente Raba
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Contributions

Statement of Contribution of CRediT Author H.B. Gebremichael: Original Study and Design Methodology, Data Retrieval, Software, Data Analysis and Interpretation, Writing-original draft, Writing-review and critical revisions. G.A. Raba: Data interpretation, Supervision, Writing-original draft, Writing-review and critical revisions. K.T. Beketie, G.L. Feyisa; Supervision, Writing-review and critical revisions. In general, all authors provide critical feedback and support until the research analysis is complete.

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Correspondence to Haftu Brhane Gebremichael.

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Gebremichael, H.B., Raba, G.A., Beketie, K.T. et al. Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought, future changes and possible drivers over Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, using SPI and SPEI. Environ Dev Sustain 26, 947–985 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02743-3

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