Abstract
It is of great significance to understand the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions and the impact mechanism, which can help formulate climate policies and provide insights into how to achieve lower emissions with the urbanization development. Utilizing China’s provincial panel dataset during period 2003–2015, this study employed the “Threshold-STIRPAT” model to investigate the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions under different urbanization thresholds, with the intermediate effect model combined. Initially, the results show that, once the urbanization development rate is less than 47.04%, each 1% increase in urbanization rate will increase the carbon emission by 0.23%, and while once the urbanization rate is greater than 47.04%, each 1% increase in urbanization rate will increase carbon emissions by 0.78%. Moreover, the intermediary transmission mechanisms, from the aspect of the improvement in resident consumption level, technological progress, industrial restructuring and energy structure adjustment, account for 1.24%, 0.78%, 0.05% and 0.02%, respectively. Ultimately, the resident consumption improvement and technological progress play the main transmission role through the empirical study of the whole sample and heterogeneous urban samples. The research results are expected to give inspiration to low carbon policies making in different urbanization stages, and to guide the direction how to optimize resident consumption and technology progress.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adebayo, T. S., Awosusi, A. A., Odugbesan, J. A., Akinsola, G. D., Wong, W.-K., & Rjoub, H. (2021). Sustainability of energy-induced growth nexus in Brazil: Do carbon emissions and urbanization matter? Sustainability, 13, 4371. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084371
Bai, Y. P., Deng, X. Z., Gibson, J., Zhao, Z., & Xu, H. (2019). How does urbanization affect residential CO2 emissions? An analysis on urban agglomerations of China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 209, 876–885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.248
Chen, J., Wang, L. J., & Li, Y. Y. (2020). Research on the impact of multi-dimensional urbanization on China’s carbon emissions under the background of COP21. Journal of Environmental Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111123
Cheng, K., Hsueh, H. P., Ranjbar, O., et al. (2021). Urbanization, coal consumption and CO2 emissions nexus in China using bootstrap Fourier Granger causality test in quantiles. Letters in Spatial and Resource, 14, 31–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-020-00263-0
de Ponce Leon Barido, D., & Marshall, J. D. (2014). Relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions depends on income level and policy. Environmental Science & Technology. https://doi.org/10.1021/es405117n
Ding, Y., & Li, F. (2017). Examining the effects of urbanization and industrialization on carbon dioxide emission: Evidence from China’s provincial regions. Energy, 125, 5–542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.156
Fang, K., Zhang, Q. F., Song, J. N., Yu, C., Zhang, H. R., & Liu, H. M. (2021). How can national ETS affect carbon emissions and abatement costs? Evidence from the dual goals proposed by China’s NDCs. Resources, Conservation & Recycling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105638
Ghazouani, T. (2021). The effect of FDI inflows, urbanization, industrialization, and technological innovation on CO2 emissions: Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-021-00834-6
Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2), 345–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1
Hao, S. (2014). China’s path to the construction of low-carbon cities in the context of new-style urbanization. China Finance and Economic Review, 2, 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/2196-5633-2-3/
Hashmi, H. S., Fan, H. Z., Habib, Y., & Riaz, A. (2021). Non-linear relationship between urbanization paths and CO2 emissions: A case of South, South-East and East Asian economies. Urban Climate, 37, 100814. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100814
Hayes, A. F. (2009). Beyond Baron and Kenny: Statistical mediation analysis in the new millennium. Communication Monographs, 76(4), 408–420. https://doi.org/10.1080/03637750903310360
Huo, T. F., Li, X. H., Cai, W. G., Zuo, J., Jia, F. Y., & Wei, H. F. (2020). Exploring the impact of urbanization on urban building carbon emissions in China: Evidence from a provincial panel data model. Sustainable Cities and Society., 56, 102068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102068
Li, J. B., Huang, X. J., Chuai, X. W., & Yang, H. (2021). The impact of land urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in the Yangtze River Delta, China: A multiscale perspective. Cities. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103275
Li, X. Y. (2021). Study on the impact of energy rebound effect on carbon emission reduction at different stages of urbanization in China. Ecological Indicators. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106983
Liu, F. Y., & Liu, C. Z. (2019). Regional disparity, spatial spillover effects of urbanisation and carbon emissions in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 241, 118226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118226
Madlener, R., & Sunak, Y. (2010). Impacts of urbanization on urban structures and energy demand: What can we learn for urban energy planning and urbanization management? Sustainable Cities Society, 1(1), 45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2010.08.006
Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Maruotti, A. (2011). The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries. Ecological Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.02.009
Perry, S. (2014). The effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in emerging economies. Energy Economics, 41, 147–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.007
Pu, Y. R., Wang, Y. Y., & Peng, W. (2020). Driving effects of urbanization on city-level carbon dioxide emissions: From multiple perspectives of urbanization. International Journal of Urban Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2020.1803105
Sharma, S. S. (2011). Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries. Applied Energy, 88(1), 376–382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.07.022
Shi, X. C., & Li, X. Y. (2018). Research on three-stage dynamic relationship between carbon emission and urbanization rate in different city groups. Ecological Indicators. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.056
Sun, J. Q., Shi, J., Shen, B. Y., Li, S. Q., & Wang, Y. W. (2018). Nexus among energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization and carbon emissions: Heterogeneous panel evidence considering China’s regional differences. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10072383
Sun, W., & Huang, C. C. (2020). How does urbanization affect carbon emission efficiency? Evidence from China. Journal of Cleaner Production. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122828
Sun, Y. P., Li, H. N., Andlib, Z., & Genie, M. G. (2022). How do renewable energy and urbanization cause carbon emissions? Evidence from advanced panel estimation techniques. Renewable Energy, 185, 996–1005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.12.112
Tang, W., Xu, Y. J., & Li, S. Y. (2021). Rapid urbanization effects on partial pressure and emission of CO2 in three rivers with different urban intensities. Ecological Indicators, 125, 107515. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107515
Tripathi, S. (2021). How does urbanization affect the human development index? A cross-country analysis Asia-Pacific. Journal of Regional Science, 5, 1053–1080. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-021-00211-w
Wang, Q., & Su, M. (2019). The effects of urbanization and industrialization on decoupling economic growth from carbon emission – A case study of China. Sustainable Cities and Society, 51, 101758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101758
Wang, S. J., Zeng, J. Y., Huang, Y. Y., Shi, C. Y., & Zhan, P. Y. (2018). The effects of urbanization on CO2 emissions in the Pearl River Delta: A comprehensive assessment and panel data analysis. Applied Energy, 228, 1693–1706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.155
Wang, W. Z., Liu, L. C., Liao, H., & Wei, Y. M. (2021). Impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions: An empirical analysis from OECD countries. Energy Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112171
Wang, Y. A., Li, X. B., Kang, Y. Q., Chen, W., Zhao, M. J., & Li, W. (2019). Analyzing the impact of urbanization quality on CO2 emissions: What can geographically weighted regression tell us? Renewable and sustainable. Energy Reviews, 104, 127–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.01.028
Wu, S. J., & Zhang, K. L. (2021). Influence of urbanization and foreign direct investment on carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from urban clusters in the yangtze river economic belt. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052722
Wu, Y. Z., Shen, J. H., Zhang, X. L., Martin, S., & Lu, W. (2016). The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in developing countries: A Chinese study based on the U-Kaya method. Journal of Cleaner Production. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.06.121
Xie, Q. C., & Liu, J. X. (2019). Combined nonlinear effects of economic growth and urbanization on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from a panel data partially linear additive model. Energy, 186, 115868. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.115868
Xu, Q., Dong, Y. X., & Yang, R. (2018). Urbanization impact on carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region: Kuznets curve relationships. Journal of Cleaner Production. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.194
Yao, F., Zhu, H. S., & Wang, M. J. (2021). The impact of multiple dimensions of urbanization on CO2 emissions: A spatial and threshold analysis of panel data on China’s prefecture-level cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 73, 103113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.103113
Yao, X. L., Kou, D., Shao, S., Li, X. Y., Wang, W. X., & Zhang, C. T. (2018). Can urbanization process and carbon emission abatement be harmonious? New evidence from China. Environmental Impact Assessment Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2018.04.005
Zhang, S. X., Li, Z. F., Ning, X., & Li, L. (2021). Gauging the impacts of urbanization on CO2 emissions from the construction industry: Evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Management, 288, 112440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112440
Zheng, S. N., Wang, R., Mak Tiffany, M. W., Shu-Chien, H., & Tsang Daniel, C. W. (2021). How energy service companies moderate the impact of industrialization and urbanization on carbon emissions in China? Science of the Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141610
Zhou, Y., Chen, M. X., Tang, Z. P., & Mei, Z. (2021). Urbanization, land use change, and carbon emissions: Quantitative assessments for city-level carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Sustainable Cities and Society. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102701
Acknowledgements
We are grateful for support from the fund projects: National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074107&71603111), National statistical scientific research projects of China (2020LY062), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017M620207), and a Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tan, F., Yang, S. & Niu, Z. The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions: both from heterogeneity and mechanism test. Environ Dev Sustain 25, 4813–4829 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02246-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02246-1