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Climate-induced changing environment in semidry lands: a statistical-based simulation approach in Qarasou Sub-basin of Karkheh River Basin

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Abstract

The present study was carried out to track the changing pattern of climate change at a watershed scale as a risk for the function of land systems. For this, the changing trend of the variables, including maximum and minimum temperature, and precipitation was simulated for the next 20 years using LARS-WG Software, version 5.0. The fifth version of the LARS developed based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report includes a total number of 15 models, among which six models (Gfcm21, Hadcm3, Incm, Ipcm4, Mpeh, and Ncccsm) are run with all of the three scenarios SRA2, SRA1B, and SRB1. In order to select the most appropriate model to simulate climate change in the Qarasou Watershed all of the 6 GCM models run with three above-mentioned scenarios were selected, whose average monthly output was compared with the observed data to determine which of the small-scale GCM models has better performance in simulating the meteorological data. The IPCM model was recognized as the best GCM model, in terms of the minimum error to downscale the meteorological data of the watershed. Once the simulation process completed, the climate change trends of the watershed were generated for the different variables, separately. According to the results, rainfall could be the primary climatic driver behind the decreased water supply for agricultural fields. Drier springs and autumns in the coming decades would potentially result in the increasing frequency of spring droughts.

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Abbreviations

gfcm21:

GFDL-CM2.0, US Department of commerce/NOAAA/Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory, USA

Hadcm3:

UKMO-HadCM3, Hadley centre for climate prediction and research/Met office, UK

Incm:

INM-CM3.0, Institute for numerical mathematics, Russia

Ipcm4:

IPSL-CM4, Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France

Mpeh:

ECHAM5/MPI-OM, Max Planck institute for meteorology, Germany

Ncccsm:

CCSM3, National center for atmospheric research, USA

CCCSN:

Canadian climate change scenarios network

GCM:

General circulation model

IPCM:

IPSL-CM4, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France

SRA2, SRA1B, and SRB1:

Special report on emissions scenarios

ECHAM4:

European center HAMburg 4

CSIRO:

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

LARS-WG model:

Long Ashton research station weather generator

IPCC:

Intergovernmental panel on climate change

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Narges Zaredar, Nematollah Khorssani & Seyed Mahmoud Shariat

  2. Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Seyed Ali Jozi

Authors
  1. Narges Zaredar
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  2. Seyed Ali Jozi
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  3. Nematollah Khorssani
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  4. Seyed Mahmoud Shariat
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Correspondence to Seyed Ali Jozi.

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Zaredar, N., Jozi, S., Khorssani, N. et al. Climate-induced changing environment in semidry lands: a statistical-based simulation approach in Qarasou Sub-basin of Karkheh River Basin. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 10416–10431 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01063-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01063-8

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