Abstract
Farmers’ perception about changing climate leads to farm-adaptive responses. Coherence between perceptions and meteorological trends leads to improved farm decisions. The objective of this study was to examine the degree of agreement between farmers’ perception and actual climate trends in three irrigated districts of Punjab province in Pakistan. The study also inquired the role of extension services and other factors affecting farmers’ perception. Using multistage sampling technique, a sample of 300 farmers was taken who were interviewed using pre-structured and field-tested questionnaire about their perceptions of climate change at farm. Climate data for 33 years regarding temperature and for 34 years for precipitation were obtained from meteorological stations in selected districts. It employed Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests for trend analysis in climate time series and tested nonparametric association in cross-sectional data. The results revealed that farmers’ perception about precipitation trends do not match with actual trends mainly because of the way climate information is processed among farmers and scientific community. However, farmers’ perceptions about increase in temperature were in line with meteorological evidence across selected irrigated cropping zones. Extension services along with income and size of land holding were key factors affecting farmers’ perception about climate change. The study recommends bridging information gaps between scientific community and farmers about climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abid, M., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U. A., & Ashfaq, M. (2015). Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: The case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics,6(1), 225–243. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015.
Afzaal, M., Haroon, M. A., & Zaman, Q. (2007). Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in the area-weighted annual mean temperature of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,6(11), 13–19.
Ahmad, I., Tang, D., Wang, T. F., Wang, M., & Wagan, B. (2015). Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests in Swat river basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860.
Ali, G. (2011). Climate change concerns and emerging challenges for water and food security of Pakistan. In Regional workshop on climate change, food and water security (pp. 24–25). Colombo, Sri Lanka. Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net/globalwaterpartnership/8-g-ali-gwp-iwmi-ws. Accessed 22 Oct 2018.
Allahyari, M. S., Ghavami, S., & Masuleh, Z. D. (2016). Understanding farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to precipitation and temperature variability. Climate,4(58), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4040058.
Amdu, B., Ayehu, A., & Deressa, A. (2013). Farmers’ perception and adaptive capacity to climate change and variability in the upper catchment of Blue Nile, Ethiopia. African Technology Policy Studies. Network, ATPS working paper no. 77, Nairobi, Kenya.
Ayal, D. Y., & Leal Filho, W. (2017). Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and its adverse impacts on crop and livestock production in Ethiopia. Journal of Arid Environments,140, 20–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2017.01.007.
Ayanlade, A., Radeny, M., & Morton, J. F. (2017). Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria. Weather and Climate Extremes,15, 24–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.12.001.
Bryan, E., Ringler, C., Okoba, B., Roncoli, C., Silvestri, S., & Herrero, M. (2013). Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household strategies and determinants. Journal of Environmental Management,114, 26–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.036.
Chaudhry, Q. Z., Mahmood, A., Rasul, G., & Afzaal, M. (2009). Climate indicators of Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Technical report No. PMD-22/2009. Retrieved from http://www.pmd.gov.pk/CC%20Indicators.pdf. Accessed 22 Oct 2018.
Deressa, T. T., Hassan, R. M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T., & Yesuf, M. (2009). Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change,19(2), 248–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.002.
Dhanya, P., & Ramachandran, A. (2016). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the proposed agriculture adaptation strategies in a semi arid region of south India. Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences,13(1), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/1943815X.2015.1062031.
Eckstein, D., Kunzel, V., & Schafer, L. (2018). Who suffers most from extreme weather events? Weather-related loss events in 2016 and 1997 to 2016. Bonn: Germanwatch.
Government of Pakistan. (2017). Block wise provisional summary results of 6th population & housing census-2017. Islamabad: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Govt. of Pakistan. (2010). Final report of the task force on climate change. Islamabad, Pakistan. Retrieved from http://www.gcisc.org.pk/TFCC%20Final%20Report.pdf. Accessed 22 Oct 2018.
Hanif, M., Hayyat, A., & Adnan, S. (2013). Latitudinal precipitation characteristics and trends in Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology,492, 266–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.040.
Hartmann, H., & Buchanan, H. (2014). Trends in extreme precipitation events in the Indus river basin and flooding in Pakistan. Atmosphere-Ocean,0(0), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.859124.
Huda, M. N., Hossin, M. Z., Ashik-E-Elahi, S., & Mahbub, F. (2016). Socio-demographic and economic correlates of climate change coping and adaptation strategies: A study on the farmer communities in Barisal district, Bangladesh. American Journal of Climate Change,5, 167–177.
Hyland, J. J., Jones, D. L., Parkhill, K. A., Barnes, A. P., & Williams, A. P. (2016). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change: Identifying types. Agriculture and Human Values,33(2), 323–339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-015-9608-9.
Imran, M., Bano, S., Dawood, M., Tarar, M. A., & Ali, A. (2013). Climate change, poverty and agricultural resource degradation: A case study of district D.G. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences,50(1), 163–167.
IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge.
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report .Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva, Switzerland.
Iqbal, W., & Zahid, M. (2014). Historical and Future Trends of Summer Mean Air Temperature over South Asia. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,10(20), 67–74.
Javed, S. A., Kishwar, S., & Iqbal, M. (2015). From perception to adaptation to climate change : Farm-level evidence from Pakistan (climate change working paper series no. 7). Islamabad, Pakistan.
Jin, J., Gao, Y., Wang, X., & Pham, K. (2015). Farmers’ risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District, China. Land Use Policy,47, 265–372.
Kendall, M. (1975). Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin.
Lata, S., & Nunn, P. (2012). Misperceptions of climate-change risk as barriers to climate-change adaptation: A case study from the Rewa Delta, Fiji. Climatic Change,110(1–2), 169–186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0062-4.
Longobardi, A., & Villani, P. (2010). Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in Mediterranean area. International Journal of Climatology,30(10), 1538–1546.
Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica,13, 245–259.
Marin, A. (2010). Riders under storms: Contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analysing climate change in Mongolia. Global Environmental Change,20, 162–176.
Mekonnen, Z., Kassa, H., Woldeamanuel, T., & Asfaw, Z. (2017). Analysis of observed and perceived climate change and variability in Arsi Negele District, Ethiopia. Environment, Development and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-017-9934-8.
Memon, A., Muhammad, S., Rahman, S., & Haq, M. (2012). Flood monitoring and damage assessment using water indices: A case study of Pakistan flood 2012. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences,18, 99–106.
Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., & Sanghi, A. (2001). The effect of development on climate sensitivity of Agriculture. Environment and Development Economics,6, 85–101.
Mugalavai, E. M., Kipkorir, E. C., Raes, D., & Rao, M. S. (2008). Analysis of rainfall onset, cessation and length of growing season for western Kenya. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,148(6–7), 1123–1135.
Myers, T. A., Maibach, E. W., Roser-Renouf, C., Akerlof, K., & Leiserowitz, A. A. (2013). The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming. Nature Climate Change,3, 343–347.
Niles, M. T., & Mueller, N. D. (2016). Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environmental Change,39, 133–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.002.
Ongoma, V., & Chen, H. (2017). Temporal and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation over East Africa from 1951 to 2010. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,129(2), 131–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0462-0.
Piya, L., Maharjan, K. L., & Joshi, N. P. (2013). Determinants of adaptation practices to climate change by Chepang households in the rural Mid-Hills of Nepal. Regional Environmental Change,13(2), 437–447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0359-5.
Rasul, G., Mahmood, A., Sadiq, A., & Khan, S. I. (2012). Vulnerability of the Indus Delta to climate change in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,8(16), 89–107.
Roco, L., Engler, A., Bravo-Ureta, B. E., & Jara-Rojas, R. (2015). Farmers’ perception of climate change in mediterranean Chile. Regional Environmental Change,15(5), 867–879. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0669-x.
Salma, S., Rehman, S., & Shah, A. (2012). Rainfall trends in different climate zones of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,9(17), 37–47.
Shrestha, A. B., & Aryal, R. (2010). Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Regional Environmental Change,11, 65–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0174-9.
Shrestha, R., Chaweewan, N., & Arunyawat, S. (2017). Adaptation to climate change by rural ethnic communities of Northern Thailand. Climate,5(3), 57. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030057.
Simelton, E., Quinn, C. H., Batisani, N., Dougill, A. J., Dyer, J. C., Fraser, E. D. G., et al. (2013). Is rainfall really changing? Farmers’ perceptions, meteorological data, and policy implications. Climate and Development,5(2), 123–138. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2012.751893.
Singh, N. P., Bantilan, C., & Byjesh, K. (2014). Vulnerability and policy relevance to drought in the semi-arid tropics of Asia—A retrospective analysis. Weather and Climate Extremes,3, 54–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.02.002.
Sutcliffe, C., Dougill, A. J., & Quinn, C. H. (2016). Evidence and perceptions of rainfall change in Malawi: Do maize cultivar choices enhance climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa? Regional Environmental Change,16(4), 1215–1224. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0842-x.
Yamane, T. (1967). Statistics: And introductory analysis (2nd ed.). New York: Harper & Row.
Yaseen, M., Ahmad, M. M., & Soni, P. (2017). Farm households’ simultaneous use of sources to access information on cotton crop production. Journal of Agricultural and Food Information. https://doi.org/10.1080/10496505.2017.1325743.
Zahid, M., & Iqbal, W. (2015). Multi-model cropping seasons projections over Pakistan under representative concentration pathways. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment,1(3), 13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-015-0008-3.
Zulfiqar, F., Datta, A., & Thapa, G. B. (2017). Determinants and resource use efficiency of “better cotton” an innovative cleaner production alternative. Journal of Cleaner Production, 166, 1372–1380. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.08.155.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan and the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand, for providing funding support for this study. The authors also appreciate the support extended by the respondents during the entire period of field survey.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Imran, M., Shrestha, R.P. & Datta, A. Comparing farmers’ perceptions of climate change with meteorological data in three irrigated cropping zones of Punjab, Pakistan. Environ Dev Sustain 22, 2121–2140 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0280-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0280-2