Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

Environment, Development and Sustainability volume 20, pages569–588(2018)Cite this article

Abstract

The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

US$ 39.95

Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

References

  1. Ahmed, R. (1995) An investigation of drought risk in Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season, Ninth Conference on Applied Climatology, Dallas, Texas, USA.

  2. Akyuz, D. E., Bayazit, M., & Onoz, B. (2011). Markov chain models for hydrological drought characteristics. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13, 298–309.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Alam, J. A. T. M., Rahman, M. S., & Saadat, A. H. M. (2013). Monitoring meteorological and agricultural drought dynamics in Barind region Bangladesh using standard precipitation index and Markov chain model. International Journal of Geometrics and Geosciences, 3(3), 511–524.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Alexander, D. (1995). Changing perspectives on natural hazards in Bangladesh. Nat Hazards Observer, 10(1), 1–2.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Ali, A. (1996) Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise through tropical cyclones and storm surges, Water Air Soil Pollution, 94(d), 171-179.

  6. Banglapedia. (2003). Banglapedia: National encyclopedia of Bangladesh. In: S. Islam (Ed.), Asiatic society of Bangladesh, Dhaka

  7. Banik, P., Mandal, A., & Rahman, M. S. (2000). Markov chain analysis of weekly rainfall data in determining drought-proneness. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 7, 231–239.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Bari, M. F., & Anwar, A. H. M. F. (2000). Effects on irrigated agriculture on groundwater quality in Northwestern Bangladesh. International proceedings of integrated water resources management for sustainable development, New Delhi, 1, 19–21.

    Google Scholar 

  9. BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). (2011) Statistical Yearbook, Published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

  10. BDHS. (2011) Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 (Published in 2012), National Institute of Population and Training, Mitra and Associates, Dhaka, Bangladesh and MEASURE DHS, ICF International, Calverton, Maryland, USA.

  11. Benson, C., & Clay, E. (1998). The impact of drought on sub-saharan African economies, a preliminary examination, World Bank Technical Paper No. 401, Washington, DC.

  12. Blaikie, P. M., Cannon, T., Davis, I., Wisner, B., & Blaikie, P. (1994). At risk: Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Brammer, H. (1987). Drought in Bangladesh: Lessons for planners and administrators. Disasters, 11(1), 21–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Dey, M. M., & Norton, G. W. (1992). Rice research priorities in Bangladesh: A quantitative analysis. Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, 15(2), 1–17.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Downing, T. E., & Bakker, K. (2000). Drought discourse and vulnerability. In D. A. Wilhite (Ed.), Drought: A global assessment (Vol. 2). London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Enders, C. K. (2010) Applied missing data analysis. The Guilford Press, New York, ISBN 978-1 60623-639-0, retrieved from http://books.google.co.ke/. 30 Jul 2011.

  17. Gregory, S. (1986). The climatology of drought. Geography, 71, 97–104.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Ikeda, K. (1995). Gender differences in human loss and vulnerability in natural disasters: A case study from Bangladesh. Indian Journal of Gender Studies, 2(2), 171–193.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Ingsrisawang, L., & Potawee, D. (2012) Multiple imputations for missing data in repeated measurements using MCMC and copulas. In Proceedings of the international multi conference of engineers and computer scientist 2012. http://www.iaeng.org/publication/IMECS2012/. 20 July 2013.

  20. Kamruzzaman, M., Rahman, A. T. M. S., & Jahan, C. S. (2015). Adapting cropping systems under changing climate in NW. Bangladesh: Lambert Academic Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  21. Medhi, J. (1981). Stochastic process. NY: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Nzewi, E. U. (2001). Water resources (pp. 45–66). New York: McGraw-Hill Publisher.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Olapido, E. O. (1985). A comparative performance of three meteorological drought indices. Climatology, 5, 655–664.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Raghunath, H. M. (1995) Hydrology-principles, analysis, design. New Age International Publisher

  25. Rahman, M. S. (1999a). A stochastic simulated first-order Markov chain model for daily rainfall at Barind, Bangladesh. Journal Interdisciplinary Mathematics, 2(1), 7–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Rahman, M. S. (1999b). Logistic regression estimation of a simulated Markov chain model for daily rainfall in Bangladesh. Journal Interdisciplinary Mathematics, 2(1), 33–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Rahman, A. T. M. S., Kamruzzaman, M., Jahan, C. S., & Mazumder, Q. H. (2016a). Evaluation of spatio-temporal dynamics of water table in NW Bangladesh-an integrated approach of GIS and statistics. Sustainable Water Resource Management. doi:10.1007/s40899-016-0057-4.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Rahman, A. T. M. S., Jahan, C. S., Mazumder, Q. H., Kamruzzaman, M. & Hosono, H. (2016b) Drought analysis and its implication in sustainable water resource management in Barind Area, Bangladesh. Journal of the Geological Society of India (in press).

  29. Rahman, A. T. M. S., Kamruzzaman, M., Jahan, C. S., & Mazumder, Q. H. (2016c). Long-term trend analysis of water table using ‘MAKESENS’ model and sustainability of groundwater resources in drought prone Barind Area, NW Bangladesh. Journal of the Geological Society of India, 87(2), 179–193.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Recha, C. W., Makokha, G. L., Traore, P. S., Shisanya, C., Lodoun, T., & Sako, A. (2012). Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108, 479–494. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0544-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Shahid, S., & Behrawan, H. (2008). Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh. Natural Hazards, 46, 391–413.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Slocum, T. A. (1999). Thematic cartography and visualization. New Jersey: Prentice Hall. ISBN 0-13-209776-1.

    Google Scholar 

  33. Smith, R. M. (1986). Comparing traditional methods for selecting class intervals on choropleth maps. The Professional Geographer, 38(1), 62–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. UNFCCC. (2007a) Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in small island developing states–Background paper for the expert meeting on adaptation for Small Island developing States, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany, retrieved on 19 December 2013 from http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/adverse_effects_and_response_measures_art_48/application/pdf/200702_sids_adaptation_bg.pdf.

  35. UNFCCC. (2007b) Background paper-Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Asia, UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany, retrieved from http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_and_adaptation/application/pdf/unfccc_asian_workshop_background_paper. 15 Aug 2013.

  36. UNFCCC. (2007c) Report on the African Regional Workshop on Adaptation, FCCC/SBI/2007/2, UN Office at Geneva, Switzerland, 15p, retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/sbi/eng/02. 10 Aug 2013.

  37. UNFCCC. (2007d) Report on the expert meeting on adaptation for small island developing states, UNFCCC/SBI/2007/11, UN Office at Geneva, Switzerland, retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/sbi/eng/11.pdf on 5 Aug 2013.

  38. UNFCCC. (2007e) Report on the Asian regional workshop on adaptation, FCCC/SBI/2007/13, UN Office at Geneva, Switzerland, retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/sbi/eng/13.pdf, 25 Jul 2013.

  39. Vaughan, M. (1987). The story of an African famine: Gender and famine in twentieth century, Malawi. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  40. Wilhite, D. A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: Concepts and definitions. In D. A. Wilhite (Ed.), Drought: a global assessment, hazards and disasters: A series of definitive major works. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  41. Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions, Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications. Paper 20. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtfacpub/20

  42. Xianfeng, L. I. U., Xiufang, Z. H. U., Yaozhong, P. A. N., Shuangshuang, L. I., Yanxu, L. I. U., & Yuqi, M. A. (2016). Agricultural drought monitoring: Progress, challenges, and prospects. Journal of Geographical Sciences. doi:10.1007/s11442-016-1297-9.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Institute of Bangladesh Studies, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh

    Md. Kamruzzaman

  2. School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba Campus, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia

    Md. Enamul Kabir

  3. Institute of Environmental Science, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh

    A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman

  4. Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh

    Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan & Quamrul Hasan Mazumder

  5. Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh

    M. Sayedur Rahman

Authors
  1. Md. Kamruzzaman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Md. Enamul Kabir
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Quamrul Hasan Mazumder
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. M. Sayedur Rahman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Md. Kamruzzaman.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 28 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kamruzzaman, M., Kabir, M.E., Rahman, A.T.M.S. et al. Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh. Environ Dev Sustain 20, 569–588 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9898-0

Download citation

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Drought hazards and vulnerability
  • Western part of Bangladesh