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The relationship between population and the environment and its impact on sustainable development in Egypt using a multi-equation model

Environment, Development and Sustainability volume 20, pages 305–342 (2018)Cite this article

Abstract

The relationship between population and the environment is a significant issue due to its impact on chances for achieving sustainable development, especially in developing countries. Previous studies on this relationship have primarily focused on the impact of population growth on the environment, while the impact of the environment on population has received less attention, where most of these studies have used single-equation models (SEM) in their analysis. In order to capture the interrelationship between population growth and the environment, and both its direct and indirect effects on the potential for achieving sustainable development, SEM may not be appropriate. This paper takes a step forward in providing such empirical evidence, by developing a multi-equation model based on the recursive equation system in order to empirically examine the relationship between population growth and the environment in terms of air pollution represented by increased CO2 emissions, health level represented by the mortality and morbidity due to air pollution, and labour productivity represented by GDP per hour worked, and using a time series data set for Egypt during the period of 1950–2010. Quantitatively, the current study finds that (1) In Egypt, a 1% increase in population raises the CO2 emissions by 2.4%. (2) An increase in CO2 emissions by 1% is associated with an increase in deaths due to outdoor air pollution (respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) by 2.5%. (3) Poor health due to air pollution leads to a decrease in labour productivity by 1.58%. (4) The impact of population growth on chances for sustainable development depends on how much the rise in air pollution decreases labour productivity through raising the rate of morbidity. (5) Even when rapid population growth rate plays a minor role in creating a specific problem, such as its indirect negative impact on labour productivity and thus economic growth, population management policies may still constitute a viable measure for dealing with that problem, especially with respect to policy intervention cost. The study argues that population growth in Egypt negatively affects the state’s ability to achieve sustainable development via its negative impact on the environment. Environmental degradation in turn leads to adverse effects on population, particularly with regard to public health. These negative effects on health lead to lower labour productivity, and thus hinder the state’s ability to sustain development.

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Fig. 1

Source: Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (1999)

Fig. 2

Source: Abuo-El-khir (2012)

Fig. 3

Source: WDI database

Fig. 4

Source: WDI database

Fig. 5

Source: WDI database

Fig. 6

Source: WDI database

Fig. 7

Source: WDI database

Fig. 8

Source: WDI database

Fig. 9

Source: Ahmed (1990), Najem (1975), NICHP (1989), Saied (2002) and NICHP database

Fig. 10

Source: ALO; CAPMS database

Fig. 11

Notes

  1. The current annual growth rate is about 2.2% (UN 2015).

  2. Unplanned areas in Egypt, including slums, represent about 95% of urban areas in Egyptian villages and 37.5% of urban areas in Egyptian cities (UN 2015).

  3. Some other studies indicated that the number of slum areas in Egypt is 1105, which represent approximately 30% of residential areas, and there are approximately 16 million people who live in Egypt’s slums (WHO 2010a).

  4. According to Hassan (2013) and Handoussa (2010), this number is estimated to be 7 and 5.7%, respectively.

  5. DALYs for a disease or health condition are calculated as the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality in the population and the years lost due to disability (YLD) for people living with the health condition or its consequences.

  6. Multiplicative approaches will be discussed later in more detail.

  7. Or any other type of environmental degradation.

  8. Global estimates of mortality due to outdoor air pollution range between 200 and 570 thousands, which represent about 0.4–1.1% of total annual deaths, and indoor air pollution has been proved to be more lethal than outdoor air pollution (Smith and Mehta 2003).

  9. Using differenced data.

  10. Losses projections for the most vulnerable countries are estimated to be more than 2% of the total working time, and about 20% output reductions in the affected sectors, amounting to a global economic loss by more than 2 trillion USD by 2030.

  11. According to the ALO, hours worked represent regular hours worked by full-time and part-time workers, paid and unpaid overtime, hours worked in additional jobs, and time not worked because of public holidays, annual paid leaves, strikes and labour disputes, bad weather, economic conditions, and other reasons.

  12. Increasing energy intensity refers to energy use inefficiency, increase energy efficiency leads to reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

  13. This magnitude is larger than the one estimated by some other studies that used panel and cross-sectional data analysis, which suggested that a 1% increase in population raises emissions by 1–1.67%.

  14. Recent studies used panel data analysis have suggested an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth in terms of GDP per capita and emissions, which is known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) where the emissions initially get worse but lately improve with income.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Robert S. McNamara Fellowship Program (RSMFP), offered by the World Bank, hosted at the Department of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Education, The University of Nottingham, Malaysia Campus (UNMC), and overseen by Dr. Camilla Jensen (currently at the Department of Marketing and Management, University of Southern Denmark).

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    Samar Khairy Ghanem

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Ghanem, S.K. The relationship between population and the environment and its impact on sustainable development in Egypt using a multi-equation model. Environ Dev Sustain 20, 305–342 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9882-8

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Keywords

  • Egypt  sustainable development
  • Population growth
  • CO2 emissions
  • Health
  • Labour productivity
  • Recursive equation model multi-equation model
  • Egypt
  • Multi-equation model