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Strategic Environmental Assessment with the Penetration of Electric Vehicles in Transport Network

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Abstract

The ownership of electric vehicles, including plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), begins to be prevalent at present and poses as a promising way to alleviate environmental pollutions. However, the traditional method of environmental impact assessment is encountering challenges due to the large differences between conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and electric vehicles. This paper proposes a novel SEA method for the penetration of electric vehicles at link level. An absorbing Markov chain model is formulated to represent the transition process among ICEVs, PEVs, and HEVs in the future, where PEV is an absorbing state. In addition, both HEV and PEV travelers are assumed to behave in the same manner as conventional ICEV travelers. As a result, the vehicle fleet composition is consistent with their market shares on each link. However, the three vehicle types are distinguished by their respective emissions rates. Therefore, the strategic environmental assessment can be worked out based on market penetration level and link traffic flows. For a given road network, transport system equilibrium is proposed to calculate link traffic flows. It is a four-step sequential model with feedback channel which can be solved by method of successive averages (MSA) effectively. For sustainable development, China plans to build a new city named Xiong’an nearby the capital Beijing. The strategic environmental assessment is conducted using the development of Xiong’an as an experimental study to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed method. This research is very useful in urban planning with environmental constraints.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions that improved the paper significantly.

Funding

This work is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771078) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2242019S20012).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, 211189, China

    Hongzhi Lin

  2. Civil Engineering Department, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, CA, 91768, USA

    Yongping Zhang

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  1. Hongzhi Lin
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  2. Yongping Zhang
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Correspondence to Hongzhi Lin.

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Lin, H., Zhang, Y. Strategic Environmental Assessment with the Penetration of Electric Vehicles in Transport Network. Environ Model Assess 25, 493–503 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-020-09691-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-020-09691-0

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