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Future Trends and Mitigation Options for Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Developing Country of the Middle East Region: a Case Study of Lebanon’s Road Transport Sector

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Abstract

The road transport system in Lebanon is one of the most unsustainable in the Middle East region due to, in large part, the absence of a national transportation strategy. This study proposes mitigation measures based on Lebanon’s commitments for reducing fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions from road transport by increasing the share of fuel-efficient and hybrid electric vehicles and increasing the utilization of the existing bus service. Results show that increasing the market share of fuel-efficient vehicles to 35% in 2040 stabilizes energy use and emissions. The addition of hybrid vehicles to the first strategy, with a target of 10% market share by 2040, leads to 11% additional savings. Increasing the share of bus passenger kilometers traveled to 45% in 2040 leads to a reversal of adverse impacts. A combined strategy of all three measures leads to 63% reductions in 2040 compared to 2010, which is even superior to their cumulative savings.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) climate change team and the Lebanese Ministry of Environment (MOE). The authors wish to extend their thanks to the personnel of these agencies, as well as the stakeholder participants in the public and private sectors, for the valuable data and helpful feedback they provided for this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lebanese American University, New York, NY, USA

    Marc Georges Haddad & Charbel Joseph Mansour

  2. Centre d’Analyses et de Recherche, Faculty of Sciences, Université Saint-Joseph, Beirut, Lebanon

    Charbel Afif

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  1. Marc Georges Haddad
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  2. Charbel Joseph Mansour
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  3. Charbel Afif
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Correspondence to Marc Georges Haddad.

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Haddad, M.G., Mansour, C.J. & Afif, C. Future Trends and Mitigation Options for Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Developing Country of the Middle East Region: a Case Study of Lebanon’s Road Transport Sector. Environ Model Assess 23, 263–276 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-017-9579-x

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