Abstract
Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China, which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our model.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by The Key Project (40335046) of National Natural Science Foundation of China and The Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education (20040001038). The authors are also grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and helpful suggestions. However, any errors or shortcomings in the paper are the responsibility of the authors.
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Huang, QH., Cai, YL. & Peng, J. Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: a case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China. Environ Model Assess 12, 55–61 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9052-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9052-8