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Simulation of PM10 concentration patterns for a 2010 traffic scenario in Bologna, Italy

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Three state of the art traffic–emission–dispersion models dealing with particulate matter have been tested and validated over the Bologna metropolitan area with 2001 data and a future scenario has been developed in order to estimate expected PM concentrations in 2010. The modelling system is composed by a traffic model (VISUM) evaluating vehicle fluxes as a function of mobility demand and road network in the area, an emission model (Trefic) estimating pollutants emitted in atmosphere as a function of vehicle fluxes amount and composition and of environmental conditions and a dispersion model (ADMS) evaluating PM concentrations on the area, given the meteorological variables. The three models compose a cascade sequence and results of the previous one feed the next one. PM concentrations computed by the model suite for the town of Bologna, in northern Italy, for the reference period (January 2001) have been compared with air quality stations measurements suggesting the modelling system being especially suitable for evaluating traffic induced PM. Qualitative and quantitative changes in the circulating vehicle fleet have been supposed in order to obtain a realistic scenario for year 2010. Forecasted concentrations have been then compared with limits fixed by current EU legislation for particulate matter.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ENEA, PROT-INN section, via Martiri di Monte Sole, 4-I-40128, Bologna, Italy

    Antonio Piersanti, Fabio Monforti & Gabriele Zanini

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  1. Antonio Piersanti
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  2. Fabio Monforti
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  3. Gabriele Zanini
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Correspondence to Fabio Monforti.

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Piersanti, A., Monforti, F. & Zanini, G. Simulation of PM10 concentration patterns for a 2010 traffic scenario in Bologna, Italy. Environ Model Assess 10, 291–301 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-9016-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-9016-4

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