Skip to main content
Log in

The impact of the financial crisis on the long-range memory of European corporate bond and stock markets

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Empirica Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in corporate bond and stock indices of six European Union countries from July 1998 to February 2015. We compute the Hurst exponent by means of the DFA method and using a sliding window in order to measure long range dependence. We detect that Hurst exponents behave differently in the stock and bond markets, being smoother in the stock indices than in the bond indices. We verify that the level of informational efficiency is time-varying. Moreover we find an asymmetric impact of the 2008 financial crisis in the fixed income and the stock markets, affecting the former but not the latter. Similar results are obtained using the R/S method.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bachelier L (1900) Théorie de la spéculation. Annales scientifiques de l’École Normale Supérieure, Paris

  • Bariviera A, Guercio M, Martinez L, Rosso O (2015a) The (in)visible hand in the libor market: an information theory approach. Eur Phys J B 88(8):208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bariviera A, Guercio M, Martinez L, Rosso O (2015b) A permutation information theory tour through different interest rate maturities: the libor case. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 373(2056):20150119. doi:10.1098/rsta.2015.0119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bariviera AF (2011) The influence of liquidity on informational efficiency: the case of the thai stock market. Phys A 390(23–24):4426–4432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bariviera AF, Belén Guercio M, Martinez LB (2012) A comparative analysis of the informational efficiency of the fixed income market in seven european countries. Econ Lett 116(3):426–428. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bariviera AF, Guercio MB, Martinez LB (2014) Informational efficiency in distressed markets: the case of European corporate bonds. Econ Soc Rev 45(3):349–369

    Google Scholar 

  • Barkoulas JT, Baum CF (1996) Long-term dependence in stock returns. Econ Lett 53(3):253–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barkoulas JT, Baum CF, Travlos N (2000) Long memory in the greek stock market. Appl Financ Econ 10(2):177–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barrios S, Iversen P, Lewandowska M, Setzer R (2009) Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis. European economy—economic papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs, European Commission

  • Bernoth K, Erdogan B (2012) Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach. J Int Money Finance 31(3):639–656

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blasco N, Santamaría R (1996) Testing memory patterns in the spanish stock market. Appl Financ Econ 6(5):401–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro D, Tabak B (2010) Fluctuation dynamics in us interest rates and the role of monetary policy. Finance Res Lett 7(3):163–169

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro DO, Tabak BM (2004a) Evidence of long range dependence in asian equity markets: the role of liquidity and market restrictions. Phys A 342(3–4):656–664

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro DO, Tabak BM (2004b) The hurst exponent over time: testing the assertion that emerging markets are becoming more efficient. Phys A Stat Theor Phys 336(3–4):521–537

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro DO, Tabak BM (2004c) Ranking efficiency for emerging markets. Chaos Solitons Fractals 22(2):349–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro DO, Tabak BM (2005) Possible causes of long-range dependence in the brazilian stock market. Phys A 345(3–4):635–645

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro DO, Tabak BM (2007) Time-varying long-range dependence in us interest rates. Chaos Solitons Fractals 34(2):360–367. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2006.04.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cajueiro DO, Tabak BM (2009) Testing for long-range dependence in the brazilian term structure of interest rates. Chaos Solitons Fractals 40(4):1559–1573. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2007.09.054

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carbone A, Castelli G, Stanley HE (2004) Time-dependent hurst exponent in financial time series. Phys A 344(1–2):267–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheong C (2010) Estimating the hurst parameter in financial time series via heuristic approaches. J Appl Stat 37(2):201–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung Y, Lai KS (1995) A search for long memory in international stock market returns. J Int Money Finance 14(4):597–615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cont R (2001) Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues. Quant Finance 1(2):223–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fama EF (1970) Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J Finance 25(2, papers and proceedings of the twenty-eighth annual meeting of the American Finance Association New York, NY, December 28–30, 1969):383–417

  • Fama EF (1976) Foundations of finance: portfolio decisions and securities prices. Basic Books, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Fama EF, French KR (1988) Dividend yields and expected stock returns. J Financ Econ 22(1):3–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geweke J, Porter-Hudak S (1983) The estimation and application of long memory time series models. J Time Ser Anal 4:221–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibson GR (1889) The stock exchanges of London, Paris, and New York: a comparison. G.P. Putnam, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Grammatikos T, Vermeulen R (2012) Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: stock prices, cds spreads and exchange rates. J Int Money Finance 31(3):517–533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grau-Carles P (2000) Empirical evidence of long-range correlations in stock returns. Phys A 287(3–4):396–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grau-Carles P (2005) Tests of long memory: a bootstrap approach. Comput Econ 25(1–2):103–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene MT, Fielitz BD (1977) Long-term dependence in common stock returns. J Financ Econ 4(3):339–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry OT (2002) Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence. Appl Financ Econ 12(10):725–729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurst HE (1951) Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans Am Soc Civ Eng 116:770–808

    Google Scholar 

  • Kasman S, Turgutlu E, Ayhan AD (2009) Long memory in stock returns: evidence from the major emerging central European stock markets. Appl Econ Lett 16(17):1763–1768

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilic R (2004) On the long memory properties of emerging capital markets: evidence from istanbul stock exchange. Appl Financ Econ 14(13):915–922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • La Spada G, Farmer J, Lillo F (2008) The non-random walk of stock prices: the long-term correlation between signs and sizes. Eur Phys J B Condens Matter Complex Syst 64(3):607–614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lo A (1991) Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 59:1279–1313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot BB (1972) Statistical methodology for nonperiodic cycles: from the covariance to rs analysis. Ann Econ Soc Meas 1(3):259–290

    Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot BB, Wallis JR (1968) Noah, joseph, and operational hydrology. Water Resour Res 4(5):909–918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mandelbrot BB, Wallis JR (1969) Computer experiments with fractional gaussian noises: part 2, rescaled ranges and spectra. Water Resour Res 5(1):242–259. doi:10.1029/WR005i001p00242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martinez LB, Terceño A, Teruel M (2013) Sovereign bond spreads determinants in latin american countries: before and during the XXI financial crisis. Emerg Mark Rev 17:60–75. doi:10.1016/j.ememar.2013.08.004

  • Mills TC (1993) Is there long-term memory in uk stock returns? Appl Financ Econ 3:303–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montanari A, Taqqu MS, Teverovsky V (1999) Estimating long-range dependence in the presence of periodicity: an empirical study. Math Comput Model 29(10–12):217–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Panas E (2001) Estimating fractal dimension using stable distributions and exploring long memory through arfima models in athens stock exchange. Appl Financ Econ 11(4):395–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng CK, Buldyrev SV, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley HE, Goldberger AL (1994) Mosaic organization of dna nucleotides. Phys Rev E 49(2):1685–1689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng CK, Havlin S, Stanley HE, Goldberger AL (1995) Quantification of scaling exponents and crossover phenomena in nonstationary heartbeat time series. Chaos Interdiscip J Nonlinear Sci 5(1):82–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poterba JM, Summers LH (1988) Mean reversion in stock prices. evidence and implications. J Financ Econ 22(1):27–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosso OA, Larrondo HA, Martin MT, Plastino A, Fuentes MA (2007) Distinguishing noise from chaos. Phys Rev Lett 99(15):154102. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.154102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serinaldi F (2010) Use and misuse of some hurst parameter estimators applied to stationary and non-stationary financial time series. Phys A 389(14):2770–2781

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taqqu MS, Teverovsky V, Willinger W (1995) Estimators for long-range dependence: an empirical study. Fractals 3:785–798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tolvi J (2003) Long memory and outliers in stock market returns. Appl Financ Econ 13(7):495–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ureche-Rangau L, de Rorthays Q (2009) More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: the Chinese stock market. J Appl Stat 36(7):779–799. doi:10.1080/02664760802509101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vodenska-Chitkushev I, Wang FZ, Weber P, Yamasaki K, Havlin S, Stanley HE (2008) Comparison between volatility return intervals of the s & p 500 index and two common models. Eur Phys J B Condens Matter Complex Syst 61(2):217–223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright J (2001) Long memory in emerging market stock returns. Emerg Mark Q 5:50–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Zunino L, Tabak BM, Pérez DG, Garavaglia M, Rosso OA (2007) Inefficiency in Latin–American market indices. Eur Phys J B Condens Matter Complex Syst 60:111–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zunino L, Zanin M, Tabak BM, Pérez DG, Rosso OA (2010) Complexity-entropy causality plane: a useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency. Phys A 389(9):1891–1901

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zunino L, Tabak BM, Serinaldi F, Zanin M, Pérez DG, Rosso OA (2011) Commodity predictability analysis with a permutation information theory approach. Phys A 390(5):876–890

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zunino L, Bariviera AF, Guercio MB, Martinez LB, Rosso OA (2012) On the efficiency of sovereign bond markets. Phys A 391(18):4342–4349. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2012.04.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Aurelio Fernandez Bariviera.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Martinez, L.B., Guercio, M.B., Bariviera, A.F. et al. The impact of the financial crisis on the long-range memory of European corporate bond and stock markets. Empirica 45, 1–15 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-016-9340-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-016-9340-8

Keywords

JEL Classification

Navigation