Abstract
We conducted an analysis of 16 historical simulations from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6 (CMIP6). These simulations encompass both high- and low-resolution models and aim to investigate the impact of improved horizontal resolution on mean and extreme precipitation in West Africa between 1985 and 2014. Six Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used to charactererize extreme indices. Bias adjustment was used to detect and adjust the biases in the models. Our observations indicate that the southeastern and southwestern regions of West Africa experience the most significant precipitation, which aligns with the simulations from HighResMIP. The enhanced horizontal resolution notably influences the simulation of orographically induced rainfall in elevated areas and intensifies precipitation in various aspects. When examining the highest 1-day precipitation, our observations reveal that most of the Guinea Coast region had 1-day rainfall exceeding 100 mm. However, this was overestimated and in some simulations underestimated by HighResMIP simulations. Furthermore, an increase in horizontal resolution appears to enhance the ability of high-resolution models to replicate the observed patterns of heavy precipitation (R10mm) and very heavy rainfall (R20mm) days. Spatial and temporal analysis suggests that uncertainty exists in the simulation of extreme precipitation in both high- and low-resolution simulations over West Africa. Also, bias adjustment shows a significant bias in the simulations. To address this issue, we employed a bias adjustment approach.
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Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the ESGF repository (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) version 2018, (https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/GPCC/html/fulldata-daily_v2018_doi_download.html), University of Delaware (UDEL) v5.01 (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.UDel_AirT_Precip.htm), and Climate Research Unit (CRU) TSv4.03 (https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/).
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the WCRP and institutions that made their high-resolution simulation results available to the public through the ESGF website. We are also thankful to the Climate Research Unit (CRU), the University of Delaware (UDEL), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) for granting access to the observational datasets following their specific data use and citation policies.
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Conceptualization, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola; methodology, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola; validation, Stella Abosede Afolayan; formal analysis, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola; investigation, Stella Abosede Afolayan, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola; resources, Feix Olabamiji Ajibola, Stella Abosede Afolayan; data curation, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola; writting-original draft preparation, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola; writting-review and editing, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola, Stella Abosede Afolayan; visualization, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola, Stella Abosede Afolayan, supervision, Felix Olabamiji Ajibola.
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Ajibola, F.O., Afolayan, S.A. Impacts of improved horizontal resolutions in the simulations of mean and extreme precipitation using CMIP6 HighResMIP models over West Africa. Environ Monit Assess 196, 328 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12492-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12492-7