Abstract
Highly accurate monthly runoff forecasts play a pivotal role in water resource management and utilization. This article proposes a coupling of variational modal decomposition (VMD) and the dung beetle optimization algorithm (DBO) with the gated recurrent unit (GRU) to establish a new monthly runoff forecasting model: the VMD-DBO-GRU. Initially, historical runoff data are decomposed via VMD. Subsequently, the parameters of the GRU are optimized using the DBO, and the decomposed monthly runoff components are inputted into the GRU neural network. Finally, the predictions for each component are consolidated to provide monthly runoff predictions. The model is then validated using monthly runoff data from the Ansha reservoir in Fujian, collected from 1980 to 2020. The results demonstrate a higher prediction accuracy of the VMD-DBO-GRU model compared to BP, SVM, GRU, VMD-GRU, DBO-GRU, and EMD-GRU models, providing a new alternative for conducting monthly runoff prediction.
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The data set is provided by a geographic remote sensing ecological network platform (www.gisrs.cn). If anyone would like to request the data, they can also contact Ban Wen-Chao.
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Acknowledgements
We want to thank all the participants of the article. We thank the referees and editors for their constructive feedback regarding the initial version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research was financially supported by the Provincial scientific research fund for basic research (2021JZ008) and General Projects of Zhoushan Science and Technology (2023C41017).
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Conceptualization: Cheng Liang; methodology: Ban Wen-Chao; software: Shen Liang-Duo; validation: Ban Wen-Chao; formal analysis: Ban Wen-Chao; investigation: Ban Wen-Chao; resources: Shen Liang-Duo; data curation: Ban Wen-Chao; writing—original draft preparation: Ban Wen-Chao; writing—review and editing: Ban Wen-Chao; visualization: Ban Wen-Chao; supervision: Shen Liang-Duo; project administration: Shen Liang-Duo; funding acquisition: Xu Chu-Tian. All authors read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
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Wen-Chao, B., Liang-Duo, S., Liang, C. et al. Monthly runoff prediction based on variational modal decomposition combined with the dung beetle optimization algorithm for gated recurrent unit model. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1538 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12102-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-12102-y