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Impacts of hydrometeorological factors on discharge simulation in the North West Himalayas: a SUFI-2 algorithm-driven investigation using the SWAT model

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Abstract

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a computational hydrological model extensively utilised for developing sustainable strategies and viable approaches for prudent management of water resources. The central emphasis of this study is on the utilisation of SWAT model along with SWAT-CUP (SWAT calibration toolbox) to simulate streamflow in the upper Jhelum basin, the North West Himalayas, for a period of 20 years from 2000 to 2019. The global sensitivity analysis algorithm, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting 2 (SUFI-2) of SWAT-CUP, is used for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The optimised parameter set estimated by SUFI-2 constitutes 11 parameters that are found to be sensitive with soil conservation service (SCS) curve number (CN) being the most influential parameter followed by snowmelt base temperature. Autocorrelation analysis using the autocorrelation function was conducted on the temperature and precipitation time series data, followed by a pre-whitening procedure to remove any autocorrelation effects. Subsequently, the modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test was applied to examine trends in the annual temperature and precipitation data. The results indicated statistically significant positive trends in both datasets on an annual scale. The results for the calibration period (2003–2014) for monthly simulation displayed good model performance at three gauging stations, Rambiara, Sangam and Ram Munshi Bagh with R2 values of 0.83, 0.847, 0.829, P factor values of 0.73, 0.76, 0.75 and R factor values of 0.61, 0.58, 0.63, respectively. The validation results for monthly simulation for the 2015–2019 period showed good model agreement with R2 values of 0.817, 0.853, and 0.836, P factor values of 0.76, 0.8, and 0.75 and R factor values of 0.62, 0.53, and 0.65, respectively. The study concludes that the SWAT hydrological model can perform satisfactorily in high mountainous catchments and can be employed to analyse the impact of land use-land cover changes and the effect of climate variation on streamflow dynamics.

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Acknowledgements

The authors highly acknowledge the help and support rendered by the Department of Ecology, Environment & Remote Sensing, Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, and Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, Kashmir, Jammu and Kashmir, 190006, India

    Taroob Bashir Naqash & Manzoor Ahmad Ahanger

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721302, India

    Rajib Maity

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Taroob Bashir Naqash, Manzoor Ahmad Ahanger and Rajib Maity conceived the idea, Taroob Bashir Naqash collected all data, applied the model and statistics, Taroob Bashir Naqash drafted the manuscript and Manzoor Ahmad Ahanger and Rajib Maity did the proofreading.

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Naqash, T.B., Ahanger, M.A. & Maity, R. Impacts of hydrometeorological factors on discharge simulation in the North West Himalayas: a SUFI-2 algorithm-driven investigation using the SWAT model. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1366 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11916-0

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