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Application of Hybrid ANN Techniques for Drought Forecasting in the Semi-Arid Region of India

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Abstract

The intensity and frequency of diverse hydro-meteorological disasters viz., extreme droughts, severe floods, and cyclones have increasing trends due to unsustainable management of land and water resources, coupled with increasing industrialization, urbanization and climate change. This study focuses on the forecasting of drought using selected Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based models to enable decision-makers to improve regional water management plans and disaster mitigation/reduction plans. Four ANN models were developed in this study, viz., one conventional ANN model and three hybrid ANN models: (a) Wavelet based-ANN (WANN), (b) Bootstrap based-ANN (BANN), and (c) Wavelet-Bootstrap based-ANN (WBANN). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the best drought index identified for the study area, was used as a variable for drought forecasting. Three drought indices, such as SPEI-3, SPEI-6 and SPEI-12 respectively representing “short-term”, “intermediate-term”, and “long-term” drought conditions, were forecasted for 1-month to 3-month lead times for six weather stations over the study area. Both statistical and graphical indicators were considered to assess the performance of the developed models. For the hybrid wavelet model, the performance was evaluated for different vanishing moments of Daubechies wavelets and decomposition levels. The best-performing bootstrap-based model was further used for analysing the uncertainty associated with different drought forecasts. Among the models developed for drought forecasting for 1 to 3 months, the performances of the WANN and WBANN models are superior to the simple ANN and BANN models for the SPEI-3, SPEI-6, and SPEI-12 up to the 3-month lead time. The performance of the WANN and WBANN models is the best for SPEI-12 (MAE = 0.091-0.347, NSE = 0.873-0.982) followed by SPEI-6 (MAE = 0.258-0.593; NSE = 0.487-0.848) and SPEI-3 (MAE = 0.332-0.787, NSE = 0.196-0.825) for all the stations up to 3-month lead time. This finding is supported by the WBANN analyze uncertainties as narrower band width for SPEI-12 (0.240-0.898) as compared to SPEI-6 (0.402-1.62) and SPEI-3 (0.474-2.304). Therefore, the WBANN model is recommended for the early warning of drought events as it facilitates the uncertainty analysis of drought forecasting results.

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Data availability

The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

Abbreviations

ANN:

Artificial Neural Network

ARMA:

Autoregressive Moving Average

BANN:

Bootstrap based-ANN

CI:

Confidence Interval

CWT:

Continuous Wavelet Transformation

DL:

Decomposition Level

DWT:

Discrete Wavelet Transformation

EDI:

Effective Drought Index

ENSO:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

ET:

Evapotranspiration

MAE:

Mean Absolute Error

MW:

Mother Wavelet

NSE:

Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency

NADI:

Nonlinear Aggregated Drought Index

PDN:

Precipitation Departure from Normal

RMSE:

Root Mean Square Error

SPEI:

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

SPEI-3:

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index with a 3-month scale

SPEI-6:

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index with a 6-month scale

SPEI-12:

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index with a 12-month scale

SPI:

Standardized Precipitation Index

WANN:

Wavelet based-ANN

WBANN:

Wavelet-Bootstrap –based ANN

WT:

Wavelet Transformation

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge various government departments/institutions like India Meteorology Department, Pune, Mahatma Phule Agricultural University, Rahuri, and State Data Storage Centre, Nashik, for providing the required hydrometeorological data and information to carry out this study. The authors are also very grateful to the Associate Editor and reviewers for their helpful comments/suggestions that improved the manuscript significantly.

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The first author is thankful to the Ministry of Human Resource Development (currently known as the Ministry of Education), New Delhi, India for the financial support through scholarship.

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Conceptualisation: Pawan S. Wable, Madan Kumar Jha; Methodology: Pawan S. Wable, Madan Kumar Jha; Software: Pawan S. Wable, Sirisha Adamala, Mukesh Kumar Tiwari; Data Collection: Pawan S. Wable; Writing-original draft preparation: Pawan S. Wable; Writing-review and editing: Madan Kumar Jha, Sirisha Adamala, Sabinaya Biswal; Supervision: Madan Kumar Jha. All the authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Madan Kumar Jha.

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Wable, P.S., Jha, M.K., Adamala, S. et al. Application of Hybrid ANN Techniques for Drought Forecasting in the Semi-Arid Region of India. Environ Monit Assess 195, 1090 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11631-w

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