Abstract
The consequences of climate change on agriculture water demand are among the current and prospective challenges. The amount of water needed by crops is significantly affected by the regional climate. The influence of climate change on irrigation water demand and reservoir water balance components were examined. The results of seven regional climate models were compared, and the top-performing model was chosen for the study area. After model calibration and validation, the HEC-HMS model was used to forecast future water availability in the reservoir. The results show that under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, the reservoir’s water availability in the 2050s will decline by approximately 7% and 9%, respectively. The CROPWAT results showed that the required irrigation water might rise by 26 to 39% in the future. However, the water supply for irrigation may be drastically reduced due to the drop in reservoir water storage. As a result, the irrigation command area could drop up to 21% (2878.4 ha) to 33% (4502 ha) in future climatic conditions. Therefore, we recommend alternative watershed management techniques and climate change adaptation measures to endure upcoming water shortages in the area.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data will be supplied upon request.
References
Abdo, K. S., Fiseha, B. M., Rientjes, T. H. M., Gieske, A. S. M., & Haile, A. T. (2009). Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana basin. Ethiopia. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, 23(26), 3661–3669. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7363
Alehu, B. A., Desta, H. B., & Daba, B. I. (2021). Assessment of climate change impact on hydro-climatic variables and its trends over Gidabo watershed. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01327-w
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, 300(9), D05109.
Arnell, N. W. (2003). Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: Future streamflows in Britain. Journal of Hydrology, 270(3–4), 195–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00288-3
Asadi, A., & Boustani, F. (2013). Performance evaluation of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for lumped and semi-distributed stormflow simulation (Study Area : Delibajak Basin). American Journal of Engineering Research (AJER), 2(11), 115–121.
Awal, R., Fares, A., & Bayabil, H. (2018). Assessing potential climate change impacts on irrigation requirements of major crops in the Brazos headwaters basin, texas. Water, 10(11), 1610. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111610
Azmat, M., Qamar, M. U., Ahmed, S., Hussain, E., & Umair, M. (2017). Application of HEC-HMS for the event and continuous simulation in high altitude scarcely-gauged catchment under changing climate. European Water, 57, 77–84.
Baimoung, S., Oki, T., Archevarahuprok, B., Yuttaphan, A., & Pangpom, M. (2014). Bias correction techniques for meteorological data of A2 scenario climate model output in Chao Phraya River Basin of Thailand. Hydrological Research Letters, 8(1), 71–76. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.8.71
Bennett, T. H., & Peters, J. C. (2000). Continuous soil moisture accounting in the hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). In Building Partnerships, 1–10.
Berhe, A. G., Mesfin, H. S., Abraha, A. Z., Abraha, G. G., Misgna, S. H., & Gebremicael, T. G. (2018). The impact of climate change on irrigation water requirement of maize and onion: The case of Gum-Selasa small-scale irrigation scheme, Tigray. Ethiopia. Journal of the Drylands, 8(1), 729–740.
Beyene, T., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Kabat, P. (2010). Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios. Climatic Change, 100, 433–461. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9693-0
Bhima, K. J. (2018). Climate change impact on water availability and demand of irrigation water-a review. International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences, 7(7), 4349–4360. https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.707.507
Brekke, L. D., Maurer, E. P., Anderson, J. D., Dettinger, M. D., Townsley, E. S., Harrison, A., & Pruitt, T. (2009). Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Water Resources Research, 45(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR006941
Change, I. P. O. C. (2001). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Genebra, Suíça.
Chernet, H. H., Sc, M., Alfredsen, K., & Midttømme, G. H. (2014). Safety of hydropower dams in a changing climate. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(March), 569–582. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000836
Cheung, W. H., Senay, G. B., & Singh, A. (2008). Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 28(13), 1723–1734. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1623
Chowdhury, S., Al-Zahrani, M., & Abbas, A. (2016). Implications of climate change on crop water requirements in arid region: An example of Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia. Journal of King Saud University – Engineering Sciences, 28, 21–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksues.2013.11.001
Chu, H. J., & Chang, L. C. (2009). Applying particle swarm optimization to parameter estimation of the nonlinear Muskingum model. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 14(9), 1024–1027.
Combalicer, E. A., Cruz, R. V. O., Lee, S., & Im, S. (2010). Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest. Philippines. Journal of Earth System Science, 119(3), 265–283. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-010-0025-6
Coulibaly, N., Coulibaly, T. J. H., Mpakama, Z., & Savané, I. (2018). The impact of climate change on water resource availability in a trans-boundary basin in West Africa: The case of Sassandra. Hydrology, 5(1), 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology5010012
Cunderlik, J., & Simonovic, S. P. (2004). Calibration, verification and sensitivity analysis of the HEC-HMS Hydrologic Model. Water Resources Research Report, 11. https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/11
Daba, M. H., & You, S. (2020). Assessment of climate change impacts on river flow regimes in the upstream of Awash Basin, Ethiopia: Based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) climate change scenarios. Hydrology, 7(4), 98. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7040098
Dile, Y. T., Berndtsson, R., & Setegn, S. G. (2013). Hydrological response to climate change for gilgel abay river, in the lake tana basin-upper blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. PloS one, 8(10), e79296. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0079296
Doll, P. (2002). Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: A global perspective. Climatic Change, 54, 269–293. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016124032231
Elshamy, M. E., Seierstad, I. A., & Sorteberg, A. (2009). Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13(5), 551–565. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-551-2009
Emiru, N. C., Recha, J. W., Thompson, J. R., Belay, A., Aynekulu, E., Manyevere, A., & Solomon, D. (2021). Impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Awash river basin. Ethiopia. Hydrology, 9(1), 3. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010003
Endris, H. S., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., Dosio, A., Nikulin, G., & Panitz, H. J. (2015). Teleconnection responses in multi-GCM driven CORDEX RCMs over Eastern Africa. Climate Dynamics, 46(9–10), 2821–2846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2734-7
Endris, H. S., Omondi, P., Jain, S., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., & Chang’a, L., … Tazalika, L. (2013). Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating East African rainfall. Journal of Climate, 26(21), 8453–8475. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1
Ewaid, S. H., Abed, S. A., & Al-Ansari, N. (2019). Crop water requirements and irrigation schedules for some major crops in Southern Iraq. Water, 11(4), 756. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040756
Feldman, A. D. (2000). Hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS: technical reference manual. HEC 609 Second St. Davis, CA 95616-4687: U.S. Army Corps of Engineering.
Gebre, S. L. (2015). Application of the HEC-HMS model for runoff simulation of upper Blue Nile river basin. Hydrology: Current Research, 6(2), 1.
Gebre, S. L., & Ludwig, F. (2015). Hydrological response to climate change of the upper blue Nile River Basin: Based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 3(01), 1–15.
Gelete, G., Gokcekus, H., & Gichamo, T. (2020). Impact of climate change on the hydrology of Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia: A review. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(4), 1539–1550. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.014
Gemechu, T. (2016). Impact of climatological parameters on crop water use of maize and sorghum: A case of Adami-Tulu Jido-Kombolcha Woreda, central rift valley of Ethiopia. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, 7(10). https://www.omicsonline.org/open-acce
Gergis, J., Baillie, Z., Ingallina, S., Ashcroft, L., & Ellwood, T. A. (2021). Historical climate dataset for southwestern Australia, 1830–1875. International Journal of Climatology, 41, 4898–4919. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7105
Giorgi, F., Jones, C., & R, A. G. (2009). Addressing climate information needs at the regional level : The CORDEX framework. WMO Bulletin, 58(July), 175–183.
Gurara, M. A., Jilo, N. B., & Tolche, A. D. (2021). Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirement in upper Wabe Bridge watershed, Wabe Shebele river basin, Ethiopia. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 180, 104223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2021.104223
Haile, A. T., Akawka, A. L., & Berhanu, B. (2017). Changes in water availability in the upper Blue Nile basin under the representative concentration pathways scenario. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(13), 2139–2149. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1365149
Haile, A. T., & Rientjes, T. H. M. (2015). Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of rainfall over the upper Blue Nile basin. Atmospheric Research, 161–162, 57–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.013
Hailemariam, K. (1999). Impact of climate change on the water resources of Awash river basin. Ethiopia. Climate Research, 12(2–3), 91–96. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr012091
Hedberg, S. (2015). Regional quantification of climatic and anthropogenic impacts on streamflows in Sweden. Uppsala University.
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., Der Linden, P. J. V., Dai, X., & Johnson, C. A. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis is the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of past, present and future climate change (pp. 1–83).
Hussen, B., Mekonnen, A., & Pingale, S. M. (2018). Integrated water resources management under climate change scenarios in the sub-basin of Abaya-Chamo. Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 4(1), 221–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0438-9
IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switze
Jang, S., Kavvas, M. L., Ishida, K., Trinh, T., Ohara, N., & Kure, S. (2017). A performance evaluation of dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Northern California. Sustainability, 2017(9), 1457. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9081457
Kim, J., Waliser, D. E., Mattmann, C. A., Goodale, C. E., Hart, A. F., Zimdars, P. A., & Jack, C. (2014). Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: Systematic model errors. Climate Dynamics, 42(5–6), 1189–1202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1751-7
Koutroulis, A. G., Tsanis, I. K., Daliakopoulos, I. N., & Jacob, D. (2013). Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece. Journal of Hydrology, 479, 146–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.055
Kumilachew, Y. W., & Hatiye, S. D. (2022). The dual impact of climate change on irrigation water demand and reservoir performance: A case study of Koga irrigation scheme. Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-022-00617-0
Lafon, T., Dadson, S., & Prudhomme, C. (2013). Bias correction of daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model : A comparison of methods. International Journal of Climatology, 33(May 2012), 1367–1381. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3518
Legates, D. R., & McCabe, G. J., Jr. (1999). Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research, 35(1), 233–241.
Luhunga, P., Botai, J., & Kahimba, F. (2016). Evaluation of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating present climate conditions of Tanzania. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 32–54.
Mana, T. T., & Abebe, B. W. (2023). Assessment of hydro-meteorological regimes of gidabo river basin under representative concentration pathway scenarios. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 9(1), 473–491. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01516-1
Mohan, S., & Ramsundram, N. (2014). Climate change and its impact on irrigation water requirements on temporal scale. Irrigation & Drainage Systems Engineering, 3(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.4172/2168-9768.1000118
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., & Veith, T. L. (2007). Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50(3), 885–900.
Mutayoba, E., & Kashaigili, J. J. (2017). Evaluation for the performance of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall characteristics over Mbarali river catchment in the Rufiji basin, Tanzania. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 2017(5), 139–151. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2017.54011
Negewo, T. F., & Sarma, A. K. (2021). Estimation of water yield under baseline and future climate change scenarios in Genale watershed, Genale Dawa river basin, Ethiopia, using SWAT model. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 26(3), 05020051. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002047
Nguyen, A., Cochrane, T. A., & Pahlow, M. (2021). A framework to assess the reliability of a multipurpose reservoir under uncertainty in land use. Water, 13(3), 287.
Nikulin, G., Jones, C., Giorgi, F., Asrar, G., Büchner, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., & van Meijgaard, E. (2012). Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. Journal of Climate, 25(18), 6057–6078. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1
Orke, Y. A., & Li, M. H. (2022). Impact of climate change on hydrometeorology and droughts in the Bilate watershed. Ethiopia. Water, 14(5), 729. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14050729
Orkodjo, T. P., Kranjac-Berisavijevic, G., & Abagale, F. K. (2022). Impact of climate change on future precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, and streamflow in the Omo-Gibe basin. Ethiopia. Heliyon, 8(6), e09711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09711
Park, J. Y., & Kim, S. J. (2014). Potential impacts of climate change on the reliability of water and hydropower supply from a multipurpose dam in South Korea 1. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 50(5). https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12190
Pereira, L. S., Allen, R. G., Smith, M., & Raes, D. (2015). Crop evapotranspiration estimation with FAO 56: Past and future. Agricultural Water Management, 147, 4–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.07.031
Peres, D. J., Modica, R., & Cancelliere, A. (2019). Assessing future impacts of climate change on water supply system performance: Application to the Pozzillo Reservoir in Sicily, Italy. Water, 11(12), 2531.
Sanjay, J., Krishnan, R., & Bhakta, A. (2017). ScienceDirect Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(3), 185–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.003
Santra, P., Kumar, M., Kumawat, R. N., Painuli, D. K., Hati, K. M., Heuvelink, G. B. M., & Batjes, N. H. (2018). Pedotransfer functions to estimate soil water content at field capacity and permanent wilting point in hot Arid Western India. Journal of Earth System Science, 127(3), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-0937-0
Savva, A. P., & Frenken, K. (2002). Crop water requirements and irrigation scheduling (p. 132). Harare: FAO Sub-Regional Office for East and Southern Africa.
Schaap, M. G., Leij, F. J., & Van Genuchten, M. T. (2001). Rosetta: A computer program for estimating soil hydraulic parameters with hierarchical pedotransfer functions. Journal of Hydrology, 251(3–4), 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00466-8
Seleshi, Y., & Zanke, U. (2004). Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology, 24(8), 973–983. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1052
Setegn, S. G., Rayner, D., Melesse, A. M., Dargahi, B., Srinivasan, R., & Wörman, A. (2011). Climate change impact on agricultural water resources variability in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. In Nile River Basin, 241–265. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7_12
Shahid, S. (2011). Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Climatic Change, 105, 433–453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9895-5
Shrestha, S., & Khatiwada, M. (2014). Impact of climate change on river flow and hydropower production in Kulekhani Hydropower Project of Nepal. Environ. Process., 2014, 231–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-014-0020-z
Taye, M. T., Dyer, E., Hirpa, F. A., & Charles, K. (2018). Climate change impact on water resources in the Awash basin. Ethiopia. Water, 10(11), 1560. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111560
Tekle, A. (2015). Assessment of climate change impact on water availability of Bilate watershed, Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin. In AFRICON, 1–5. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/AFRCON.2015.7332041
Teutschbein, C., & Seibert, J. (2012). Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies : Review and evaluation of different methods. Journal of Hydrology, 456–457, 12–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052
Verbeiren, B., Khanh Nguyen, H., Wirion, C., & Batelaan, O. (2016). An Earth observation based method to assess the influence of seasonal dynamics of canopy interception storage on the urban water balance. Belgeo. Revue Belge de Géographie, (2).
Walther, A., Jeong, J. H., Nikulin, G., Jones, C., & Chen, D. (2013). Evaluation of the warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation over Sweden simulated by the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3. Atmospheric Research, 119, 131–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.10.012
Wang, L., Ranasinghe, R. W. M. R. J., Maskey, S., van Gelder, P. H. A. J., & Vrijling, J. K. (2016). Comparison of empirical statistical methods for downscaling daily climate projections from CMIP5 GCMs: A case study of the Huai River Basin. China. International Journal of Climatology, 36(1), 145–164. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4334
Worako, A. W., Haile, A. T., & Taye, M. T. (2022). Implication of bias correction on climate change impact projection of surface water resources in the Gidabo sub-basin, Southern Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(5), 2070–2088. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.396
Yimere, A., & Assefa, E. (2022). Current and future irrigation water requirement and potential in the Abbay river basin. Ethiopia: Air, Soil and Water Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/11786221221097929
Yira, Y., Diekkrüger, B., Steup, G., & Bossa, A. Y. (2017). Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2143–2161. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2143
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the Water Resource Research Center at Arba Minch University for allowing us to perform this investigation. The Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), which gave daily meteorological data for this study, is also acknowledged by the authors. We also credit Ethiopia's Ministry of Water and Energy (MoWE) for providing streamflow data.
Funding
This study was supported by a small grants research fund provided by Arba Minch University, Water Resource Research Center under the Project Code of GOV/AMU/31/WRRC/03/2019.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Data collection, statistical analysis, data interpretation, and manuscript writing were all done by the first author, Tegegn Takele Mana. The statistical analysis, data interpretation, literature review, development process, and writing of certain manuscript portions were all the responsibility of Berhanu Wegayehu Abebe. Samuel Dagalo Hatiye made contributions to this study through the compilation of the paper, the drafting of the literature review, editing, and comments on the overall research work.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethical approval
All authors have read, understood, and have complied as applicable with the statement on “Ethical responsibilities of Authors” as found in the Instructions for Authors and are aware that with minor exceptions, no changes can be made to authorship once the paper is submitted.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Mana, T.T., Abebe, B.W. & Hatiye, S.D. Effect of climate change on reservoir water balance and irrigation water demand: a case of Gidabo irrigation project, Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia. Environ Monit Assess 195, 866 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11484-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11484-3