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Morphology and land use change analysis of lower Padma River floodplain of Bangladesh

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Abstract

Bangladesh, the largest delta in the world, is situated over the flow of more than 700 rivers. The Ganges is a transboundary river, and it takes the Padma after meeting Jamuna near Aricha. The Padma River’s morphology and hydraulic parameters are so dynamic that it erodes a large portion of land every year. However, the situation of erosion has been very threatening since 2014 which is almost the same period when the construction of the Padma Bridge started. Our Study on the erosion-accretion rate and bar dynamics of the selected reach of Padma River shows that the downstream right bank of this river lost around 134.85 sq. km of land between 2003 and 2021. The total bar area has also increased to 76.8%. Land use land classification (LULC) analysis was done for the years 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021 to predict how the river might act in the future. For this prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) system has been used, and the predicted land use map was generated for 2027. The current kappa validation was 0.869, and the accuracy of the prediction was 87.05%. This study aims at analyzing the current morphological condition and its connection to the construction of the Padma Bridge and also predicts how the lower Padma River might act in near future. According to the study findings, in absence of prompt and appropriate measures, this country is highly susceptible to experiencing catastrophic consequences.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Author notes

  1. Siam Alam

    Present address: Water Resources Management, Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh

  2. Fuad Hasan

    Present address: Engineering Science Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Siam Alam

  2. Department of Environmental, Water Resources, and Coastal Engineering, Military Institute of Science and Technology, Dhaka, 1216, Bangladesh

    Fuad Hasan

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA

    Mohana Debnath

  4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL, 61820, USA

    Afeefa Rahman

  5. Department of Water Resources Engineering (WRE), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Afeefa Rahman

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  1. Siam Alam
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Contributions

Siam Alam performed the morphological analysis for 2003, 2006, and 2009. He prepared different maps, graphs and also performed the LULC analysis and CA-ANN algorithm-based prediction. He contributed to writing the “Abstract,” “Methodology,” “Results and Discussions,” and “Conclusion” portions. Fuad Hasan performed the morphological analysis for 2012, 2015, 2018, and 2021. He helped in preparing and improving the quality of graphs and maps. He also contributed to writing the “Introduction” portion. Mohana Debnath compiled the chapters and did different trouble shootings in the write-up. Afeefa Rahman directed this project, helped in shaping specific objectives, and proofread the write-up.

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Correspondence to Siam Alam.

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Alam, S., Hasan, F., Debnath, M. et al. Morphology and land use change analysis of lower Padma River floodplain of Bangladesh. Environ Monit Assess 195, 886 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11461-w

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