Abstract
The objective of the study is to perform the spatial analysis of the conditioning factors for the increase in the incidence rate of dengue cases in municipalities located in the Amazon biome, in the period from 2016 to 2021. Three statistical approaches were applied: Moran’s index, ordinary least squares regression, and geographically weighted regression. The results revealed that the incidence rates of dengue cases cluster in two areas, both located in the south of the Amazon biome, which is associated with the Arc of Deforestation. The variable deforestation influences the increase in dengue incidence rates revealed by the OLS and GWR model. The adjusted R2 of the GWR model was 0.70, that is, the model explains about 70% of the total case variation of dengue incidence rates in the Amazon biome. The results of the study evidence the need for public policies aimed at the prevention and combat of deforestation in the Amazon region.
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Conceptualization: Carlos Silva and Alex Santos; methodology: Carlos Silva and José Melo; software: Carlos Silva; formal analysis: Carlos Silva, Alex Santos, and Cristine Bonfim; investigation: Carlos Silva and Alex Santos; resources, Carlos Silva; data curation: Carlos Silva and Alex Santos; writing—original draft preparation: Carlos Silva, Alex Santos, Cristine Bonfim, Simone Sato, and Eduardo Barreto; writing—review and editing: Carlos Silva and Alex Santos; visualization: Carlos Silva; supervision: Carlos Silva; project administration: Carlos Silva.
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da Silva, C.F.A., dos Santos, A.M., do Bonfim, C.V. et al. Deforestation impacts on dengue incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. Environ Monit Assess 195, 593 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11174-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11174-0