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Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model

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Abstract

It is imperative to understand the climate change impact on the forest ecosystem to develop appropriate mitigation and management strategies. We have employed a process-based dynamic vegetation modeling (MAPSS-CENTURY: MC) approach to project change in vegetation life forms under projected climate conditions that attained 81% overall accuracy. The present and projected climate conditions suggested highly resilient/stable forest covers in wet climate regimes and moderately resilient in dry semi-arid regions. Several forested grids in the seasonally dry tropical forest in the Eastern Ghats and dry Deccan peninsula regions are estimated to be less resilient, which may experience a regime shift toward scrub and grassland. The future prediction demonstrated an upward temperature shift in the Western Himalayas and trans-Himalaya, which may facilitate forest spread at higher elevations. Although the forest cover resilience may increase in future climate conditions, the disturbances in several regions in the Deccan Peninsula and the Eastern Ghats may trigger forest to scrub and grassland transition. The inaccuracy in model simulation in the Western Himalayas could be attributed to coarse resolution grids (0.5°) failing to resolve the narrow climate niches. The spatially explicit model simulation provides opportunities to develop long-term climate change adaptation and conservation strategies.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been carried out under the framework of “Climate Change Effects on Indian Forest Cover, a project under DST CoE in Climate Change.” The vegetation type map generated against a national-level “Biodiversity Characterization project” was utilized here, is thankfully acknowledged. The authors acknowledge the support provided by the authorities of the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur during this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, West Bengal, Kharagpur, 721302, India

    Pulakesh Das & Mukunda Dev Behera

  2. Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture Department, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, West Bengal, Kharagpur, 721302, India

    Prasad K. Bhaskaran

  3. Sustainable Landscapes and Restoration, World Resources Institute India, New Delhi, 110016, India

    Pulakesh Das & Parth Sarathi Roy

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  1. Pulakesh Das
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Correspondence to Mukunda Dev Behera.

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Supplementary file1 LAI-based life form categorization used in MC2 model (JPG 292 KB)

Supplementary file2 Biogeographic zones of India (JPG 784 KB)

10661_2022_10545_MOESM3_ESM.jpg

Supplementary file3 Predicted change in (i) precipitation, (ii) minimum and (iii) maximum temperature simulated by the CNRM-CM5 model (JPG 852 KB)

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Das, P., Behera, M.D., Bhaskaran, P.K. et al. Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model. Environ Monit Assess 194, 903 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10545-3

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