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Climatology and model prediction of aerosol optical properties over the Indo-Gangetic Basin in north India

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Abstract

The current research focuses on the use of different simulation techniques in the future prediction of the crucial aerosol optical properties over the highly polluted Indo-Gangetic Basin in the northern part of India. The time series model was used to make an accurate forecast of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and angstrom exponent (AE), and the statistical variability of both cases was compared in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the model (training and validation). For this, different models were used to simulate the monthly average AOD and AE over Jaipur, Kanpur and Ballia during the period from 2003 to 2018. Further, the study was aimed to construct a comparative model that will be used for time series statistical analysis of MODIS-derived AOD550 and AE412–470. This will provide a more comprehensive information about the levels of AOD and AE that will exist in the future. To test the validity and applicability of the developed models, root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), fractional bias (FB), and Pearson coefficient (r) were used to show adequate accuracy in model performance. From the observation, the monthly mean values of AOD and AE were found to be nearly similar at Kanpur and Ballia (0.62 and 1.26) and different at Jaipur (0.25 and 1.14). Jaipur indicates that during the pre-monsoon season, the AOD mean value was found to be highest (0.32 ± 0.15), while Kanpur and Ballia display higher AOD mean values during the winter season (0.72 ± 0.26 and 0.83 ± 0.32, respectively). Among the different methods, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was found to be the best-suited model for AOD prediction at Ballia based on fitted error (RMSE (0.22), MAE (0.15), MAPE (24.55), FB (0.05)) and Pearson coefficient r (0.83). However, for AE, best prediction was found at Kanpur based on RMSE (0.24), MAE (0.21), MAPE (22.54), FB (-0.09) and Pearson coefficient r (0.82).

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Data availability statement

Authors use the Giovanni website (https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/) data portal, the NASA Earth Science data centers, for the online availability of the MODIS aerosol products used in this analysis.

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Acknowledgements

Authors acknowledge the use of Giovanni website (http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/) data portal and the NASA Earth Science data centers for the online availability of the MODIS aerosol products used in this analysis. Authors’ expresses their gracious thank to Director, IITM, Pune, for his encouragement and support. Authors are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions to improve the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Engineering and Technology, Lucknow, India

    Amarendra Singh, Sumit Singh, Virendra Pathak & A. K. Shukla

  2. Ministry of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, New Delhi, India

    Amarendra Singh & A. K. Srivastava

  3. Department of Remote Sensing, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi, India

    Swagata Payra

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Correspondence to Amarendra Singh or A. K. Srivastava.

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Singh, A., Singh, S., Srivastava, A.K. et al. Climatology and model prediction of aerosol optical properties over the Indo-Gangetic Basin in north India. Environ Monit Assess 194, 827 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10440-x

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