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Significance of using dynamic land-use data and its threshold in hydrology and water quality simulation models

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Abstract

Land-use changes have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle and non-point source (NPS) pollution discharge and transport. Thus, using dynamic land-use inputs in the simulation models is important. However, there is currently no clear standard for which situation the land-use data should be updated in the models. In this study, we quantified the impacts of land-use change on hydrological and NPS pollution simulation outputs, and analyzed the thresholds for land-use change level and time nodes. The results indicated that the error caused by land-use change had a linear relationship with the land-use change level. The total nitrogen (TN) output error was the most sensitive to land-use change, with a gradient of 0.73. The impact of land-use change on the model outputs was different at different temporal scales. Flow and TN had the highest output errors at a daily scale, while sediment had the highest output error at an annual scale. The threshold analysis results revealed that the land-use change thresholds for the flow, sediment, and TN simulations were 40%, 30%, and 10%, respectively. When the land-use change level exceeded the threshold, the model simulation error increased dramatically. The land-use change time node would also affect the simulation performance, especially for TN. This study initially explored the quantified standard for land-use data updates in the SWAT model. The results could be useful for improving the simulation accuracy of the SWAT model and may provide ideas for follow-up studies.

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All the data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0605001) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571486). The authors thank the editors and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

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  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing, 100875, China

    Qingrui Wang, Ruimin Liu, Lijun Jiao, Lin Li, Yifan Wang & Leiping Cao

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  1. Qingrui Wang
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  2. Ruimin Liu
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Highlights

•  Impacts of land use change on hydrology and NPS were quantified at multi-time scale.

•  Simulation error had linear relationship with land use change level, and TN was more sensitive.

•  Flow and TN had more error at daily scale, while sediment had more error at annual scale.

•  Threshold of land use change level and time node existed, and more restrict for TN.

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Wang, Q., Liu, R., Jiao, L. et al. Significance of using dynamic land-use data and its threshold in hydrology and water quality simulation models. Environ Monit Assess 194, 108 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-09761-8

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