Abstract
Zagros Mountains are like an island in the Middle East and they are subjected to changes in climate. Daphne mucronata Royle is an important medicinal plant species preserved in the high elevation regions in these mountains. Maxent species distribution model was used to integrate presence data (2413 points) and environmental variables to model the current and future potential distribution of D. mucronata in Iran. The most important variables were Bio19 with 50.5% contribution, followed by Bio8 and Bio2 with 30% and 11.4% contributions, respectively. The best Maxent model included seven variables, 4 feature types (linear, quadratic, product, and hinge), and had a test AUC value of 0.894. The current potential distribution indicated that 8% of Iran’s drylands are suitable for growing D. mucronata and this area could decrease to 5.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, and 3.1% under RCP 8.5 due to climate change. Our results suggest that D. mucronata may lose overall about 2.8% and 4.9% of its current distribution under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2050. There would be only 0.7 and 0.2% gains under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The species would locally disappear between 1500- and 2000-m elevation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The establishment of some stations for monitoring the changes in transition zone or lost areas especially on the southeastern parts of Zagros Mountain can help in detecting changes in the future. Additionally, stable habitats may be good target areas for future conservation planning.
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Acknowledgements
We also thank the Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory at Colorado State University for providing logistical support. Finally, we thank Dr. Hassan Sher, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Swat, Pakistan, Dr. Annette Patzelt, Oman Botanic Garden, and Jens Eriksen from Oman whose comments improved the manuscript.
Funding
We received financial support from the Ministry of Science, Research and Technology of Iran.
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Highlights
• Daphne mucronata Royle is an important medicinal plant in the Zagros mountains in the Middle East.
• About 8% of Iran’s drylands are suitable for growing Daphne mucronata.
• D. mucronata may lose about 2.8 to 4.9% of its current habitat under future climate scenarios.
• The species would locally disappear between 1500 and 2000 m elevation under future climate.
• Results can be used to re-introduce D. mucronata and monitor suitable habitats.
Appendices
Appendix 1. Sample points and provinces; 1. West Azarbaijan, 2. Zanjan, 3. Kurdistan, 4. Kermanshah, 5. Ilam, 6. Lorestan, 7. Hamadan, 8. Markazi, 9. Isfahan, 10. Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, 11. Khuzestan, 12. Bushehr, 13. Fars, 14. Kerman, 15. Hormozgan, 16. Sistan and Baluchestan, 17. Razavi Khorasan
Appendix 2. Background points
Appendix 3. Correlation among all variables considered for modeling distribution of D. mucronata. The selected variables for modeling are highlighted in bold
Layer | Bio1 | Bio2 | Bio3 | Bio4 | Bio5 | Bio6 | Bio7 | Bio8 | Bio9 | Bio10 | Bio11 | Bio12 | Bio13 | Bio14 | Bio15 | Bio16 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bio1 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio2 | − 0.24 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio3 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio4 | − 0.54 | 0.58 | − 0.42 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio5 | 0.84 | 0.19 | 0.34 | − 0.05 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio6 | 0.96 | − 0.46 | 0.33 | − 0.71 | 0.68 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio7 | − 0.54 | 0.80 | − 0.14 | 0.93 | − 0.01 | − 0.74 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Bio8 | 0.81 | − 0.47 | 0.15 | − 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.84 | − 0.63 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Bio9 | 0.90 | − 0.08 | 0.23 | − 0.21 | 0.92 | 0.80 | − 0.25 | 0.68 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
Bio10 | 0.97 | − 0.09 | 0.34 | − 0.31 | 0.94 | 0.87 | − 0.32 | 0.75 | 0.95 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
Bio11 | 0.98 | − 0.34 | 0.44 | − 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.99 | − 0.67 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.90 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||
Bio12 | − 0.48 | − 0.25 | − 0.43 | 0.10 | − 0.49 | − 0.32 | 0.00 | − 0.33 | − 0.46 | − 0.51 | − 0.42 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||
Bio13 | − 0.35 | − 0.25 | − 0.32 | 0.01 | − 0.39 | − 0.20 | − 0.08 | − 0.25 | − 0.37 | − 0.40 | − 0.29 | 0.95 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||
Bio14 | − 0.31 | − 0.44 | − 0.47 | − 0.07 | − 0.46 | − 0.15 | − 0.21 | − 0.01 | − 0.35 | − 0.37 | − 0.24 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||
Bio15 | 0.65 | − 0.01 | 0.59 | − 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.62 | − 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.67 | − 0.40 | − 0.15 | − 0.60 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||
Bio16 | − 0.37 | − 0.24 | − 0.32 | 0.01 | − 0.40 | − 0.22 | − 0.07 | − 0.27 | − 0.39 | − 0.41 | − 0.31 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.51 | − 0.17 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||
Bio17 | − 0.34 | − 0.45 | − 0.47 | − 0.08 | − 0.49 | − 0.18 | − 0.21 | − 0.04 | − 0.40 | − 0.41 | − 0.27 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 0.98 | − 0.61 | 0.50 | ||||||||||||
Bio18 | − 0.36 | − 0.42 | − 0.46 | − 0.06 | − 0.51 | − 0.21 | − 0.19 | − 0.03 | − 0.43 | − 0.43 | − 0.29 | 0.65 | 0.52 | 0.95 | − 0.59 | 0.52 | ||||||||||||
Bio19 | − 0.20 | − 0.15 | − 0.12 | − 0.08 | − 0.22 | − 0.08 | − 0.10 | − 0.29 | − 0.24 | − 0.26 | − 0.15 | 0.84 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 0.92 | ||||||||||||
Elevation | − 0.83 | 0.48 | 0.01 | 0.40 | − 0.67 | − 0.85 | 0.54 | − 0.81 | − 0.81 | − 0.81 | − 0.80 | 0.14 | 0.09 | − 0.04 | − 0.28 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||
Slope | − 0.37 | 0.02 | − 0.07 | 0.05 | − 0.40 | − 0.32 | 0.08 | − 0.35 | − 0.41 | − 0.41 | − 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.10 | − 0.10 | 0.28 | ||||||||||||
Northness | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
Eastness | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||
PET | 0.84 | 0.32 | 0.63 | − 0.19 | 0.93 | 0.68 | − 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.82 | 0.89 | 0.77 | − 0.59 | − 0.46 | − 0.54 | 0.63 | − 0.47 | ||||||||||||
Land Use | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.30 | − 0.17 | 0.46 | 0.39 | − 0.11 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.44 | − 0.55 | − 0.55 | − 0.27 | 0.23 | − 0.56 | ||||||||||||
Land cover | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.15 | − 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.25 | − 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.28 | − 0.33 | − 0.37 | − 0.09 | 0.05 | − 0.37 | ||||||||||||
River | 0.22 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.15 | − 0.46 | − 0.51 | − 0.18 | 0.03 | − 0.50 | ||||||||||||
Human effect | − 0.22 | − 0.23 | − 0.24 | − 0.04 | − 0.29 | − 0.12 | − 0.10 | − 0.15 | − 0.26 | − 0.26 | − 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.28 | − 0.12 | 0.45 | ||||||||||||
Layer | Bio16 | Bio17 | Bio18 | Bio19 | Elevation | Slope | No | Ea | PET | LU | LC | River | HE | |||||||||||||||
Bio16 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio17 | 0.50 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio18 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bio19 | 0.92 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Elevation | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Slope | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Northness | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | − 0.01 | − 0.01 | − 0.01 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Eastness | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||||
PET | − 0.47 | − 0.57 | − 0.57 | − 0.26 | − 0.52 | − 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||||
Land use | − 0.56 | − 0.28 | − 0.27 | − 0.51 | − 0.28 | − 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||||
Land cover | − 0.37 | − 0.11 | − 0.10 | − 0.37 | − 0.20 | − 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.84 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||
River | − 0.50 | − 0.20 | − 0.21 | − 0.51 | − 0.09 | − 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 1.00 | ||||||||||||||||
HE | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.06 | − 0.01 | 0.00 | − 0.32 | − 0.45 | − 0.31 | − 0.47 | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||
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Tarnian, F., Kumar, S., Azarnivand, H. et al. Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of Daphne mucronata in Iran. Environ Monit Assess 193, 562 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09311-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09311-8