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Rainfall in Brazilian Northeast via in situ data and CHELSA product: mapping, trends, and socio-environmental implications

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Abstract

Rainfall is a climatic variable that dictates the daily rhythm of urban areas in Northeastern Brazil (NEB) and, therefore, understanding its dynamics is fundamental. The objectives of the study were (i) to validate the CHELSA product with data in situ, (ii) assess the spatial-temporality of the rains, and (iii) assess the trends and socio-environmental implications in the Metropolitan Region of Maceió (MRM). The monthly rainfall data observed between 1960 and 2016 were flawed and were filled with the imputation of data. These series were subjected to descriptive and exploratory statistics, statistical indicators, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettitt tests. CHELSA product was validated for MRM, and all stations obtained satisfactory determination coefficients (R2) and Pearson correlation (r). The standard error of the estimate (SEE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were satisfactory. The highest annual rainfall accumulated occurred near the Mundaú and Manguaba lagoons. The Pettitt test identified that abrupt changes occur in El Niño and La Niña years (strong and weak). The monthly rain boxplots showed high variability in the rainy season (April–July). Outliers have been associated with extreme rainfall at MRM. The drought period was 5 months in all MRM seasons, except in Satuba and Pilar. The Mann–Kendall test and the Sen method showed a tendency for a significant increase in rainfall in Satuba and not significant in the Pilar, while in the others, there was a tendency for a decrease in rainfall. The MRM rainfall depends on physiographic factors, multiscale meteorological systems, and the coastal environment. These results will assist in planning conservationist practices, especially in areas of socio-environmental vulnerability.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author on request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Ciências Atmosféricas (ICAT), Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL), Maceió, Alagoas, 57072-900, Brazil

    José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior, Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho & Micejane da Silva Costa

  2. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Biossistemas (PGEB), Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, 24210-240, Brazil

    José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior & Felipe Machado Freire

  3. Postgraduate Program in Meteorology, Unidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas (UACA), Federal University of Campina Grande (UFCG), Campina Grande, Paraíba, 58429-140, Brazil

    Dimas de Barros Santiago

  4. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Tecnologia Ambiental (PGTA), Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, Rio de Janeiro, 27255-125, Brazil

    Givanildo de Gois

  5. Department of Geography, State University of Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Sinop, Mato Grosso, 78555-000, Brazil

    Carlos Antonio da Silva Junior

  6. PostgraduateProgram in Agronomy, Federal Universityof Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), Chapadão do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, 79560-000, Brazil

    Paulo Eduardo Teodoro

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de Oliveira-Júnior, J.F., Correia Filho, W.L.F., de Barros Santiago, D. et al. Rainfall in Brazilian Northeast via in situ data and CHELSA product: mapping, trends, and socio-environmental implications. Environ Monit Assess 193, 263 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09043-9

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