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Interaction effects of the main drivers of global climate change on spatiotemporal dynamics of high altitude ecosystem behaviors: process-based modeling

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Abstract

Soil organic carbon and nitrogen (SOC-N) dynamics are indicative of the human-induced disturbances of the terrestrial ecosystems the quantification of which provides insights into interactions among drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses in a changing environment. In this study, a process-based model was developed to simulate the eight monthly outputs of net primary productivity (NPP), SOC-N pools, soil C:N ratio, soil respiration, total N emission, and sediment C-N transport effluxes for cropland, grassland, and forest on a hectare basis. The interaction effect of the climate change drivers of aridity, CO2 fertilization, land-use and land-cover change, and best management practices was simulated on high altitude ecosystems from 2018 to 2070. The best management practices were developed into a spatiotemporally composite index based on SOC-N stock saturation, 4/1000 initiative, and RUCLE-C factor. Our model predictions differed from the remotely sensed data in the range of − 64% (underestimation) for the cropland NPP to 142% (overestimation) for the grassland SOC pool as well as from the global mean values in the range of − 97% for the sediment C and N effluxes to 60% for the total N emission from the grassland. The interaction exerted the greatest negative impact on the monthly sediment N efflux, total N emission, and soil respiration from forest by − 90.5, − 82.7, and − 80.3% and the greatest positive impact on the monthly sediment C effluxes from cropland, grassland, and forest by 139.3, 137.1, and 133.3%, respectively, relative to the currently prevailing conditions.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Haluk Fidan and Ceren Bozkurt for their help with the analysis of soil samples in laboratory.

Funding

This research was funded by the Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council (TUBITAK) under the Grant number: 117Y193.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bolu Abant Izzet Baysal University, Bolu, Turkey

    Kadir Yildiz, Nusret Karakaya & Fatih Evrendilek

  2. Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ardahan University, Ardahan, Turkey

    Seref Kilic

Authors
  1. Kadir Yildiz
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  2. Nusret Karakaya
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  3. Seref Kilic
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  4. Fatih Evrendilek
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Contributions

This article is extracted from Kadir Yildiz’s MSc thesis. Nusret Karakaya and Fatih Evrendilek were co-supervisors for his MSc thesis and responsible for conceptualization, securing the TUBITAK funding, and drafting the article. Seref Kilic was responsible for soil sampling, analysis and mapping.

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Correspondence to Fatih Evrendilek.

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Yildiz, K., Karakaya, N., Kilic, S. et al. Interaction effects of the main drivers of global climate change on spatiotemporal dynamics of high altitude ecosystem behaviors: process-based modeling. Environ Monit Assess 192, 457 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08430-y

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