Abstract
Population growth rate indicates the proportional rate of settlement expansion and landscape modification in any river basin. The Mahanadi River basin (MRB), which is a densely populated, cropland and forest-dominated landscape, is selected as a case study area for studying the nature of built-up expansion and the corresponding land cover modifications. Satellite data-derived land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps for the years 1995, 2005, and 2015 were used for identification of landscape changes during the past three decades. One of the major LU/LC changes are observed in terms of increase in the water, which may be attributed to construction of new dams at the cost of the croplands and forest areas. Conversion of forest to cropland and expansion and densification of built-up areas in and around the existing built-up areas are also identified as a major LU/LC change. The geostatistical analysis was performed to identify the relationship between LU/LC classes with drivers, which showed that built-up areas were more in topographically flat terrain with higher soil depth, and expanded more around the existing built-up areas; cropland areas were more at lower elevation and less sloppy terrain, and forest areas were more at higher elevation. The LU/LC scenario of 2025 was projected using a spatially explicit dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) modeling platform with the LU/LC change trends of past 10 years (2005–2015) and 20 years (1995–2015). The major LU/LC changes observed during 2005–2015 were built-up expansion by 36.53% and deciduous forest and cropland reduction by 0.35% and 0.45%, respectively. Thus, the corresponding predicted change during 2015–2025 estimated built-up expansion by 25.70% and deciduous forest and croplands loss by 0.43% and 0.35%, respectively. On the other hand, during 1995 to 2015, the total built-up expansion and deciduous forest and cropland reduction were observed 50.79%, 0.45%, and 0.73%, respectively. Thus, the predicted changes during 2015–2025 were estimated as 18.48% built-up expansion and 0.22% and 0.21% deciduous forest and cropland loss. However, with the conditions of restricted deforestation and less landscape modification, the LU/LC projections show less built-up area expansion, reducing the cropland, fallow land, plantation, and waste land. The reduced numbers of land cover conversions types during 2005–2015 compared with 1995–2005 indicate more stabilized landscape. The input LU/LC maps and statistical analysis demonstrated the landscape modifications and causes observed in the basin. The model projected LU/LC maps are giving insights to possible changes under multiple pathways, which will help the agriculture, forest, urban, and water resource planners and managers in improved policy-making processes.
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Figure S1.
Flow diagram showing the overall Dyna-CLUE model architecture. (JPG 525 kb)
Figure S2.
Zoomed area near Bhubaneswar and Cuttack city highlighting the LU/LC conversions e.g., scrubland, mixed forest and cropland to plantation and built-up; plantation to built-up in past three decades (JPG 1153 kb)
Figure S3.
Field Photographs with Geo-location (GPS reading) of cropland (crop period and fallow period) (JPG 827 kb)
Figure S4.
Field Photographs with Geo-location (GPS reading) of dense and open forest (JPG 1219 kb)
Figure S5.
Field Photographs with Geo-location (GPS reading) of plantation area, built-up and water body (JPG 713 kb)
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Das, P., Behera, M.D., Pal, S. et al. Studying land use dynamics using decadal satellite images and Dyna-CLUE model in the Mahanadi River basin, India. Environ Monit Assess 191 (Suppl 3), 804 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7698-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-019-7698-3